Is the war with Iran a Black Swan event?
What a mess in Iran and our president saying that we basically won the war and that he might wind it down... I wonder how could that be done?
They asked for additional two hundred billion dollars for this war and that is more than the total aid to Ukraine over four years from the United States. Two hundred billion dollars sure doesn't sound like this will be over soon.
According to the last estimate from Pentagon this kind of money should last for about one hundred days at two billion dollars a day.
This kind of spending is sure to put pressure on our budget and contribute towards the increasing budget deficit and national debt. Yet the latest polls are saying that majority of Republicans are supporting our president in his handling of the war in Iran.
And the MAGA support is even stronger at 100%. What happened to America first and no foreign adventures?
I am worried that this is a black swan event that nobody expected and this war is not priced in yet. This could lead to a major bear market in equity markets and with stocks dropping risk assets like bitcoin and crypto are going to dump hard.
Another disappointment today is the announcement from Invennium corporation that they are going to be shutting down at least for now.
I had big hopes that Arcadecolony is going to be a big success and will get much bigger than Splinterlands ever was. The concept was genius, but I guess you need major investment to make it happen and bring a lot of developers into it.
That was probably a prudent decision on their part as we are going into a major storm in the markets and economy.
At least Splinterlands is continuing for now. They did just change the CEO. But it sounds like it was planned for a while.
One thing for sure is that the major war in Middle East with major expenditures is going to bring some major buying opportunities in stocks and your favorite crypto currencies be it Bitcoin, Etherium? Hive, SPS or anything else.
Keep your powder dry and get ready for major buying opportunities...
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The financial markets are looking bleak in the short-term. I was hoping to see a slight bump this summer if Congress could get their act together and finally pass some kind of crypto regulatory framework but the situation in Iran may overshadow all of that. Hopefully the war winds down quickly, even if it does it's looking like it'll be a lean summer.
Yeah, it seems that the war is going to trigger a major downturn... It's going to be hard to just say mission acoumplished and ground operation could turn into a major disaster. And investors are just starting to realize this and once they do I fear that a crash is going to be worse than what we saw in 2008.
Unfortunately it seems like things are lining up that way—the housing market is set for a major collapse. I fear what might happen to the tech industry if investment starts to dry up. It could give other countries the edge on AI development.
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