Is the Bull Market Over? Or Bear Trap?

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After hitting a new ATH of $73,738 on March 14, 2024, Bitcoin (BTC) went into a downward trend, and although it tried to recover in the last week of March and the first week of April, it failed. The decrease in interest in Bitcoin ETFs and the increase in outflows have started to worry investors. Additionally, Hong Kong's Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) ETFs were expected to attract intense interest, but they did not. Issuers expected initial volume for Hong Kong's Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) ETFs to be over $100 million, but volume was only $11 million. Hong Kong's Bitcoin ETFs had a volume of $8.5 million and Ethereum ETFs had a volume of $2.5 million, which is well below expectations.

The continuation of the declines and the decrease in interest in ETFs strengthen the predictions that the bull market is over. Not only that, as of yesterday, Bitcoin exprienced its fifth consecutive negative weekly close, meaning it has been in the red zone for five consecutive weeks. Bitcoin has never in its history closed five consecutive weeks with a decline other than a bear market, which strengthens the thoughts that the bull market is over.

Bitcoin (BTC) Weekly Chart

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Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at $61,121. Bitcoin continues to decline slowly but steadily. Additionally, outflows in Bitcoin ETFs are happening in a similarly slow and steady manner. The dominance of bears in the crypto market is clearly visible, and some analysts have begun to say that the bull market is over and the bear market has begun. Frankly, the data indicate that the bull market is over, so I do not find it odd that analysts say that the bull market is over, but I am one of those who believe that the bull market is not over yet.

When we look at the endings of previous bull markets and the beginnings of bear markets, we can see that the declines were much sharper, so I think the current declines are not enough to transition into a bear market. Also, when we look at previous bull markets we can see that there were many declines between 20% and 30%, currently Bitcoin has only experienced a 17% decline from ATH and is also currently only 20% away from ATH. In my opinion, these declines are not enough to end the bull market and start the bear market.

Of course, as the price of an asset falls, it worries its investors, and negative comments and analyzes worry investors even more and cause them to sell, so it is inevitable that the price will fall further, but on the other hand, if there are investors waiting to buy it cheaper, their purchases will prevent too much decline. However, the lack of buyers cannot prevent further decline, so if sales cannot be met, selling pressure increases, thus triggering a bear market. I see current declines as deceptive signals that trick investors into acting prematurely on bearish trends so, I hope that the Bitcoin price will suddenly reverse and move higher again, rather than continuing to fall. I think the current declines are a bear trap so I am not worried and remain bullish.

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Michael Saylor also remains bullish. According to Michael Saylor's statement from the X platform, MicroStrategy acquired an additional 122 BTC for $7.8 million in April and now holds 214,400 BTC, which is more than 1% of the max Bitcoin supply.

Thank you for reading
@rtonline

This is not an investment advice, I am just talking about my personal opinions and predictions and predictions may not come true. Additionally, I would advise you to keep in mind that even well-founded analysis can quickly become invalid when market conditions change unexpectedly, so I recommend doing your own research before investing.

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