Ethereum Has Lost a 5-Year Support. Is This a Bigger Warning Than Previous Drops?

Hello everyone,

Today I wanted to share something interesting that I noticed on the Ethereum chart.

Over the last few days, I have been spending quite a bit of time looking at the weekly and daily timeframes, and one thing really caught my attention.

Ethereum has now broken below a trendline that has acted as support since December 2020.

At first, I thought this was just another fake breakdown because we have seen similar situations before.

But after looking deeper into the chart, I realized this time might actually be different.

In the chart above we can see that If we go back and look at Ethereum's history, this ascending support has been tested five different times over the last five years.

Every single time Ethereum traded below it, buyers eventually stepped in and reclaimed the level.

For example, during the June 2022 crash, Ethereum briefly moved below this support before recovering. We saw something similar again in November 2022, and another quick breakdown happened in April 2025. See the chart below!

Those moves did not last very long.

This time, however, Ethereum has been trading below this trendline since the beginning of June 2026 and, so far, buyers have not been able to reclaim it.

That is the biggest difference I see on the chart.

Of course, this does not automatically mean Ethereum is going much lower.

Charts never guarantee anything. They simply help us understand probabilities. If this breakdown continues, then the first historical support I am watching is around $1,440.

Below that, I think the next important demand zone sits somewhere between $1,150 and $1,300.

Now, I am not saying Ethereum has to fall into that range but nobody knows where the exact bottom will be. Crypto markets are volatile, and price often surprises everyone. These are simply the levels I will be paying close attention to if the selling pressure continues.

If you would like a more detailed walkthrough of this analysis, including the charts and my complete thought process, I have also published a YouTube video covering everything in depth. You can check the video below.

Another thing I found interesting is the Relative Strength Index, or RSI.

Looking back over the last four years, Ethereum's RSI has reached the 20 level only a handful of times.

What surprised me even more was what happened after each of those occasions.

Every single time RSI reached that oversold area, it eventually climbed back above 60 before returning to those low levels again.

Recently, Ethereum's RSI dropped as low as around 12 before recovering to roughly 28. That raises an interesting question. Has Ethereum already seen the worst of the selling?

Or will RSI move back toward 20 once again before a stronger recovery begins?

Personally, I do not know the answer. At this point, I think both scenarios are still possible. That is why I prefer watching the chart instead of making bold predictions. For me, the next few weeks will be very important.

I will mainly be watching three things:

• Can Ethereum reclaim this long-term trendline?
• Can the $1,440 support hold if sellers remain in control?
• And what happens to RSI from here?

Those three factors should give us a much better idea about Ethereum's next major move. As always, this is simply my personal technical analysis based on historical price action.

It is not financial advice, and I would encourage everyone to do their own research before making any investment decisions.

Thank you for reading. I would love to know what you think.

Do you believe Ethereum has already found its bottom, or do you think there is still one more leg down before the next major recovery?

See you in the next post!