Is this the UP-tober you expected?
This was not the October we were promised, but neither was the September we expected. A lot of things are not going as planned, and it all started with BTC smashing its previous high before the halving.
Although there is a reason for why that happened, I believe it is time we tell ourselves the truth: this cycle will not unfold exactly as the previous one. There are numerous parameters that have ensured that things have changed from what they were previously.
I mentioned this a while ago, and to be honest, it is important that we start preparing ourselves to be shocked or surprised.
A lot of moon boys thought we would finally taken off when we did not get completelyrekd in September, but I knew deep down that wreck was bound to happen somehow. For example, something is always going for another thing in crypto.
There are no moons without dips, and since we did not completely dip or get rekd, I believe October taking some of the September dip was unavoidable. Who would have predicted that we would be back at 60k BTC? Not many, but I did.
This cycle appears strange, but if you look closely, you will notice that either a pattern is occurring too quickly or too slowly.
Once again, the market is in a panic. Is it time to speak about the Middle East? Perhaps.
There is a lot of unrest going on, and it appears that Israel is not going to stop fighting for what they believe to be justice. So, is it time to believe that the Middle East will remain unstable indefinitely? Maybe. I believe the war there can be ended in the blink of an eye, but when terrorism becomes political, we know what happens.
Sadly, we live in a reactionary world. COVID forced people to lose their jobs, and wars will cause financial instability and uncertainty. When there is instability, people prioritize survival over wealth.
However, I believe that the unrest in the Middle East is a catalyst, just as other catalysts will be present in future bear markets.
As I previously stated, we live in a reactionary world, and we saw how the market reacted to the US interest rate cut, but is this enough to prevent crypto from making potential gains in Q4? I have my doubts about this.
It appears that holding the support line for 60k BTC is critical, but I disagree. Given the dip we saw in September, I believe we could fall below 60k and still be on track, but the market will react, and this is how FUD grows. It's incredible to see that even in October people are still feeling bearish, when they shouldn't be.
Historically, they shouldn't, but like I said, it looks like this cycle wants to damn history. To be very honest, I believe this dip is mostly correlating with the one we saw in September. We saw more gains than dips in September, and who knows, we might see more dips than gains in October.
For what it is worth, I have not really rated October in any of my analyses; I believe it will have even more sideways movements and possibly pull something huge near the end.
However, the market has its own mind and will respond to a wide range of news and information.
So, when will we finally see gains without dips?
Nobody knows, but not this month, if you ask me. Again, I believe we are still on track. I will keep asking you to buy and stack; these buying opportunities will never come again. If you truly want to establish yourself and have the financial resources, this could be the market to stop worrying about future bears.
I am sorry if the new month has ruined yourlambo dreams, but there is still plenty of time; October could still pull in 70k BTC very late, who knows?
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I am happy with the dip and need more dip so I can buy back some of the coins I sold... so this disappointment is a blessing
Indeed it'll be a blessing in disguise for you, because I feel we're in the last few weeks before the market finally takes off
It's hard to know what will happen. This year is going to be hard to predict. It's a US election year, there is a port strike going on the US and the economy is rough for a lot of people.
Well, you've certainly mentioned a lot of things to be concerned about, but yet I believe these things are catalyst just like we usually have in other cycles
I feel that whenever we set expectations based on historical data, a new event comes into the world that breaks it all. We saw now Iran attack Israel and soon I am sure Israel will strike back. So I can only say: expect the unexpected!
You're right. Expected the unexpected. I think that this cycle might set new landmarks and records are still going to be broken as well. The war in the middle east continues though, it's just really pathetic.
We are just on the 3rd of October. All good. Falling bullish flag still intact on the weekly BTC chart. ✊🏻
I understand it's the 3rd of October, but many thoughts we were going to hit the ground running.
Well…we can tell after October has happened 😉
Definitely not the Uptober I was expecting, but at the same time not surprise given the instability in the geopolitical scene. That plus the election and interest rate cuts coming later than expected are all playing into this delay on the bull run.
Yeah you're right, we probably expected to be flying high, but it hasn't been the way we expected it to be. I hope this delay wouldn't take too long.
And you seriously believe we are not going to see gains this month. So when will we come out of the dips
No one knows how the October will turn out.
As I got ready for my post from today, I thought how would it be to have a reverse of roles between September and October this year? But I don't think so. September wasn't great either. If it didn't have the run from the second half of the month, it would have really been Rektember. And October, if a run starts (maybe around mid-month, maybe sooner), it will still be remembered as Uptober.
From your take, it wouldn't exactly seem like a reverse and I believe, but let's look at it this way. Maybe October isn't going to be that good, just as September wasn't really bad. I actually do think the second half of October might be decent.
I think the same.
I totally agree with you bro. This current market is very unpredictable. September surprised us all, and I also had my hopes very high, but I’m still stacking and staying patient. I hope we get our lambo soon, bro.
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It seems the market is just playing games with us all at this point, but then again, the market has always played games with us. That's what makes it the market. About 3 days ago, I read the idea of one guy on TradingView where he was suggesting BTC was going to 30k. Many people disagreed and called him an idiot because according to all of them, the market was showing strong bullish signs. But like you said, a lot of things are happening differently this year that have not happened in any previous cycle, so maybe his analysis even though too extreme, could play out a little. Maybe we won't get a dip that steep, but it certainly could be something no one expects. A powerful move to wipe out and clear liquidity before anything close to what we actually are waiting to see happens.
The Uptober I feel it's still young but might it might pull a few surprises. I hope it's for the best.