The best way to bet that the oil barrel (Brent or WTI) will reach 200 USD this year is highly speculative and extremely high-risk.

Currently (April 2026), the price is around 110-112 USD per barrel, driven by tensions in the Strait of Hormuz due to the conflict in Iran.

Analysts (Macquarie, Wood Mackenzie, Bloomberg) see a possible spike to 150-200 USD only in an extreme scenario (prolonged blockade of Hormuz until June or longer, ~40% probability according to some). Most base forecasts (EIA, JPMorgan, Goldman) expect it to drop to a 70-85 USD average in 2026 if the conflict resolves soon.

Step-by-step (brief format):

1. Assess the real risk

   • Reaching 200 USD requires a massive and sustained supply disruption (not the base case). It’s a “fat tail” event: huge gain if it happens, but likely total loss if not. Only use money you can afford to lose.

2. Choose the most efficient instrument (recommended order for this extreme bet):

   • Call options on oil futures or USO ETF (United States Oil Fund): Highest leverage. Buy far-dated calls (December 2026 expiry or longer) with high strikes (e.g., 150-180 USD). Cheap if implied volatility is not extreme.
   • Crude oil futures (CL on NYMEX): Buy long contracts with high leverage, but requires a futures account and margin management (monthly rollover).
   • Leveraged energy ETFs: USO, XLE, or leveraged versions. Less explosive than options.
   • Producer stocks (Chevron, Exxon, Devon) or XLE ETF: They rise with price but with lower beta (less gain if it hits 200).

3. Practical strategy:

   • Allocate only 1-5% of your portfolio.
   • Enter on dips (temporary drops due to positive news).
   • Use stop-loss or take partial profits if it reaches 150+.
   • Monitor news on Hormuz, OPEC, and strategic reserves (releases can cap the upside).
   • Platforms: Broker with options/futures access (Interactive Brokers, Thinkorswim, etc.). In Spain/Latam: check regulations and access to CME.

4. Trade management:

   • Time horizon: Hold until Q3/Q4 2026 if the conflict persists.
   • Costs: Option premium + time decay (theta).
   • Taxes and commissions: Calculate in advance.