Trump's post about Greenland got community noted on X. One explanation why Trump is threatening NATO: Dividing NATO members into good and bad ones.
Trump hat wieder einen Rant über die NATO gepostet, dass die NATO ihm zu wenig bei (der Übernahme von) Grönland geholfen hätte.
Auf dem Papier ist die NATO ein Verteidigungsbündnis und kein Angriffsbündnis der USA. In der Vergangenheit wurde nur ein offizieller Artikel 5-Verteidungsfall zu Gunsten der USA nach den 9/11-Terroranschlägen ausgelöst.
In der Praxis hat die NATO und zahlreiche europäische NATO-Staaten aber praktisch alle Kriege der USA im Nahen Osten direkt oder indirekt unterstützt, wobei die Kooperation im Einzelfall aber eher bilateral abläuft, nicht über die NATO direkt. Koalition der Willigen etc.
Selbst im aktuellen Iran-Krieg (Epic Fury, "Epische Wut") wird die USA durch die Bereitstellung von US/Nato-Militärbasen in Deutschland und UK aktiv unterstützt. Dazu kommt die Nutzung des europäischen Luftraums für die USA.
Sogar das neutrale Österreich hat US-Militär-Flüge immer wieder genehmigt, nur einen medienwirksam abgelehnt, andere bewilligt.
Ohne Unterstützung großer NATO-Staaten wie Deutschland wäre der Iran-Krieg logistisch für die USA viel schwerer durchführbar.
Trump nutzt den Iran-Krieg und Grönland meiner Meinung nach eher als Vorwand, um aus der NATO auszutreten.
Kann mir aber nicht vorstellen, dass die USA seine Militärbasen in der EU freiwillig aufgeben würde. Rein hypothetisch, sollte Trump tatsächlich der NATO den Rücken kehren, denke ich, dass Trump dann viel mehr bilaterale Deals mit Deutschland, Italien, Griechenland etc. anstreben würde, um seine strategisch wichtigen Militärbasen behalten zu können.
Trumps Vorhaben: NATO-Mitglieder in gute und schlechte dividieren. Divide and Conquer. Bündnis nur mit jenen, die ihm bedingungslos folgen.
In so einem hypothetischen Szenario würde er damit auch die Kohäsion der EU schwer belasten, da die EU dann gezwungen wäre, ein eigenes Verteidigungsbündnis ohne USA aufzubauen. Ein Schattenbündnis einzelner EU-Länder mit Trump wäre in diesem Fall wenig hilfreich und würde die EU vor einer Zerreißprobe stellen.
Was sagt ihr dazu? Denkt ihr, dass Trump aus der NATO austreten wird? Was steckt eurer Meinung nach dahinter?
https://x.com/WhiteHouse/status/2042027252053897428
English
Trump has posted another rant about NATO, claiming that NATO didn’t do enough to help him with (the takeover of) Greenland.
On paper, NATO is a defensive alliance, not an offensive alliance solely for the interest of the U.S. In the past, only one official Article 5 defense case in support of the U.S. was invoked following the 9/11 terrorist attacks.
In practice, however, NATO and numerous European NATO member states have directly or indirectly supported virtually all of the US’s wars in the Middle East, although cooperation in individual cases tends to be bilateral rather than through NATO directly, e.g., the Coalition of the Willing.
Even in the current war against Iran (Epic Fury), the U.S. is actively supported through the provision of U.S./NATO military bases in Germany and the UK. Added to this is the use of European airspace by the U.S.
Even neutral states as Austria have repeatedly authorized US military flights, rejecting only one for media effect while approving others.
Without the support of major NATO countries like Germany, the Iran war would be much more difficult for the US to carry out logistically.
In my opinion, Trump is using the Iran war and Greenland more as a pretext to withdraw from NATO.
But I can’t imagine the U.S. voluntarily giving up all its military bases in the EU. Purely hypothetically, if Trump were to actually turn his back on NATO, I think he would then rather seek out bilateral deals with Germany, Italy, Greece, etc., in order to retain his strategically important military bases there.
Trump’s plan: to divide NATO members into good and bad ones. Divide and conquer. An alliance only with those who follow him unconditionally.
In such a hypothetical scenario, he would also severely strain the cohesion of the EU, as the EU would then be forced to build its own defense alliance without the US. A shadow alliance between individual EU countries and Trump would be of little help in this case and would put the EU to the test.
What do you think? Do you think Trump will withdraw from NATO? What do you think is behind this?
The sad reality is that Europe has been a free-rider on US security spending for 70 years and has evolved to think that this is a natural state of affairs. They think there is "a rules based international order". There is not! There is only power, mostly US power, that they rely upon. Instead they diverted spending that should have gone into defence into a nanny welfare state that then sneers at Americans.
The failures of NATO countries & Australia to assist the US in this most essential and moral of wars, that has saved Europe from the shadow of nuclear blackmail by crazy, religiously fanatical Mullahs, is playing VERY BADLY in the US, especially in the circles of power, and particularly in contrast to Israel's extraordinary co-equal battle buddy role.
Trump is forcing Europe to confront its weakness, dependency and the fundamentally unfair & self-entitled way they are behaving.
Europe is in for a massive wake up call.
I wouldn't be surprised if Trump does a deal with Putin that ends the Ukraine War on terms very unfavourable to Europe.
Trump will either abandon or re-model NATO to only work with countries that have proven their loyalty and reliability.
I think free riders on US security spending is a bit exaggerated, considering the EU spends yearly 340+ billion collectively on defense, trillions over decades, including UK even more, and part of the money was always used to buy US equipment and support US wars, but it's true that the EU could have spent even more and Europe profited from US security guarantees. However, the EU has also carried the main burden of refugees from US-led wars, spending again billions on refugee support and is now solely funding the Ukraine war, which was partly provoked by US/Nato expansion.
The United States has no choice. If you leave one place, another will take your place. It could be Russia or China. And then they'll be one step closer to home. All the wars the United States has fought in the last 70 years have been far from its own territory. If it abandons its positions in the next war it fights, the bombs will fall on its own soil. What madman would want that?
I think there is a scenario where Trump would withdraw from NATO
!BBH
Dividing NATO members is going to be a tough task for Trump