The oil price has been trending down since the US Presidential election
Here is the chart:
It's down 5% in the last three trading sessions alone, and as you can see from the chart, the WTI price is testing a major support line.
OPEC cut its oil demand growth forecasts for the fourth consecutive month.
The main cause is China. In the first 9 months of the year, China's oil imports fell 3% compared to the same period last year. This matters because China is the world's biggest consumer of oil.
Europe's economy is also weakening fast, especially Germany.
Into this situation comes the US Presidential elections, with President-elect Trump threatening to put 10% tariffs on all the US's trading partners. This is likely to cause a global recession in 2025, making the situation in China and Europe worse.
As for the United States, tariffs may cause inflation, hence surging bond yields.
Oil prices are always about the global economy, and the price drop signals a bad global economy.
There are some good outcomes from lower oil prices: the cost of transporting goods and commuting to work gets cheaper, so inflation moves down.
Geopolitically, two bad actors, Russia and Iran, need an oil price above $70 a barrel to sustain their wars, especially Russia.
The strain of trying to fight a war without revenue should begin to tell. Ukraine has two months to fight as hard as it can before Trump gets inaugurated, and even then, the money may not be cutoff.
In the event Trump does cut funding to Ukraine, a falling oil price means Russia's revenue will also be cut, allowing Ukraine to carry on with European help.