China's trade surplus continues to soar
Here is the chart: source The main culprit is sluggish domestic demand in China. Chinese consumers have slammed their wallets shut, and are instead focused…
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The 30-year mortgage rate in the US rose for the fourth year in a row
It ended 2024 at 6.9%. The last time mortgage rates rose for four consecutive years was in 1978 to 1981, when Paul Volcker was Chairman of the Federal Reserve and was engaged in…
The S&P has had gains in excess of 20% for three consecutive years
The S&P 500 finished 2024 up 25%. It was the third consecutive year the S&P 500 grew by more than 20%. Here is the table showing growth rates since 1928:…
The German economy has become more dependent on the USA
Twenty-five years ago, most German exports went to France and Britain, with the balance going to other members of the EU. After the Great Financial Crash of 2008 and the Eurozone…
Is the world heading towards recession?
We've seen some shock moves by central banks in the last week. First, the Swiss National Bank cut interest rates by an unexpectedly large 50 basis points to 0.5% (one of the…
Is France in trouble?
French 10-year bond yields briefly rose above Greek 10-year yields. Greece, if you remember, was Ground Zero of the eurozone crisis of 2010 to 2014. Here is the…
German bond yields are climbing
Germany has had exceptionally low bond yields for a long time. They actually dipped to minus 0.5% in 2019, which meant bond holders were paying the German government for the…
Which countries will be hit hardest by tariffs from the incoming Trump administration?
President-elect Trump has vowed to put a blanket 10% tariff on all goods imported into the United States. Here are the countries Deutche Bank analysts think will be hardest…
Japan and China sold a record amount of US Treasuries in the third quarter
So now we know why US Treasury yields were soaring in the lead up to the US Presidential elections - two huge sovereign countries, Japan and China, were dumping some of their…
A look at the house price crash in China
China’s property sector crisis started in 2021 with the default of the Evergrande Group. And Chinese house prices have continued to fall ever since. See source…