Supply shock incoming for the United States
In an interview with Yahoo media on April 15th, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said, "No one thinks steep China tariffs are sustainable over the long run". He was referring to…
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Watch the bond markets! Bond yields will be a clue whether the crisis will get worse or not
One of the theories some pundits put forward for the huge tariffs, is that the Trump administration was trying to push bond yields lower. The reasoning went as follows: Scare…
Trump's new tariffs close loopholes used by China's proxies
So Trump announced new tariffs today, which are applicable to pretty much every country in the world. The minimum baseline tariff is 10%, but a lot of countries were hit with…
Money flows out of American stocks into other markets
For the last sixteen years, the US stock market has outperformed the rest of the world. This was helped by steady governance which resulted in a strong economy, while the…
First evidence that Canadians are cancelling flights to the US
When Canadians started talking in February about how they were going to boycott flights to the US, some people, including economists, scoffed. After all people often say things…
Do tariffs cause inflation or deflation?
Tariffs are paid by the importer. So when Trump put tariffs of 25% on imports from Mexico and Canada, that results in the American business that is importing produce from Mexico…
Europe's debt yields rise across the board
This is despite the European Central Bank cutting rates at the start of March for the sixth time in nine months to 2.5%. So why are European government bond yields…
What impact will the Canadian boycott have?
Canada started boycotting American goods in a low-key manner in February as Donald Trump started threatening to invade and annexe them. This metastasized to a full national…
Is the stock market crash fortelling a recession?
Both the Nasdaq and the S&P500 are now in correction territory, as they're down by at least 10% from their highs. The questions are "How long will the bear market last?" and "Is…
Why are German bund yields spiking?
German 10-year Bond yields have spiked to 2.912%. That seems low to most countries, but for Germany these are the highest yields since 2023 when inflation was raging. Here is the…