Is the world heading towards recession?
We've seen some shock moves by central banks in the last week. First, the Swiss National Bank cut interest rates by an unexpectedly large 50 basis points to 0.5% (one of the…
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Is France in trouble?
French 10-year bond yields briefly rose above Greek 10-year yields. Greece, if you remember, was Ground Zero of the eurozone crisis of 2010 to 2014. Here is the…
German bond yields are climbing
Germany has had exceptionally low bond yields for a long time. They actually dipped to minus 0.5% in 2019, which meant bond holders were paying the German government for the…
Which countries will be hit hardest by tariffs from the incoming Trump administration?
President-elect Trump has vowed to put a blanket 10% tariff on all goods imported into the United States. Here are the countries Deutche Bank analysts think will be hardest…
Japan and China sold a record amount of US Treasuries in the third quarter
So now we know why US Treasury yields were soaring in the lead up to the US Presidential elections - two huge sovereign countries, Japan and China, were dumping some of their…
A look at the house price crash in China
China’s property sector crisis started in 2021 with the default of the Evergrande Group. And Chinese house prices have continued to fall ever since. See source…
Will Germany reform it's debt-brake?
The Scholz coalition (SPD-Greens-FDP) collapsed last week, when Olaf Scholz fired his Finance minister, Christian Lindner of the FDP. The issue was the debt-brake. Scholz wanted…
The oil price has been trending down since the US Presidential election
Here is the chart: source It's down 5% in the last three trading sessions alone, and as you can see from the chart, the WTI price is testing a major support…
Is the American economy really that strong if the Fed cuts rates in two consecutive meetings?
So the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points following the 50 basis points cut in September. That's a cumulative 75 basis points. The last time we saw cuts like this was at…
What does Trump's win mean for the US economy?
Well, the bond markets think his Presidency could be inflationary, leading to higher interest rates. Here is what happened to the 10 year US Treasury bond yield on Nov 6th as the…