First evidence that Canadians are cancelling flights to the US

When Canadians started talking in February about how they were going to boycott flights to the US, some people, including economists, scoffed. After all people often say things in the heat of the moment, but never follow through.

Indeed Ron de Santis, Governor of Florida, joked on March 5th that he hadn't seen any signs of Canadians stopping travel to Florida.

However, we now have some hard data, courtesy of OAG, the data platform for the global travel industry.

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Forward bookings are down by over 70% compared to this time last year.

We also have evidence from airlines. Flair has cancelled all it's summer flights to Tennesee due to lack of bookings and has increased flights within Canada. WestJet has cancelled flights from Canada to New York and has increased flights to Europe instead.

This matters because Canadians are the biggest source of tourists to the USA and spent about $20 billion in the US in 2024. See the following graphic:

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2025 is looking to be a bad year for the US hospitality industry. Lots of small hotels will go bust. Florida and Las Vegas will be the most affected, but places like Hawaii and California will also feel the heat. And of course, all the towns that are south of the Canadian border will be affected.

Even if the Canadian dollar recovers and the trade war ends, things will not go back to normal, such is the nationalistic anger in Canada over Trump's desire to annexe them as the 51st state.