Dear Diary: Friday, February 20th, and Everything Is On Trial
Dear Diary: Friday, February 20th, and Everything Is On Trial A dispatch from somewhere between the trading desk and the confessional booth Seven-thirty in the morning. PCE…
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The Guidance Graveyard
The Guidance Graveyard — Feb 19, 2026 body { font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; max-width: 720px; margin: 60px…
Current Situation. Status: Unclear. Mood: Complicated
INTERNAL MEMO — EYES ONLY From: The Building. To: Everyone Who Survived the Week. Filed: February 18, 2026 RE: Current Situation. Status: Unclear. Mood: Complicated. Please be…
Bitcoin Fell $57K and All We Got Was This Lousy Solar Eclipse
Bitcoin Fell $57K and All We Got Was This Lousy Solar Eclipse Bitcoin is down 46% from its all-time high of $126,210 in October. Let that sit with you for a second. Not 4%. Not…
The Moment We All Stopped Believing in Safety
The Moment We All Stopped Believing in Safety Monday morning. Coffee's cold. You're checking your phone for the third time. Gold was at $5,600. Silver was at $121. Bitcoin…
REGULATORS LOVE CRYPTO NOW (A Fever Dream While Your Bitcoin Gets Liquidated)
REGULATORS LOVE CRYPTO NOW (A Fever Dream While Your Bitcoin Gets Liquidated) So the CFTC just handed 35 seats to crypto CEOs. Coinbase is on the Innovation Advisory Committee.…
When Relief Meets Reckoning: The Strange Peace of February
When Relief Meets Reckoning: The Strange Peace of February The strangest thing about this week wasn't the numbers. It was the silence that followed them. On Wednesday…
The Velocity of Confidence Collapse (A Pattern Recognition Exercise)
MEMO: RE: The Velocity of Confidence Collapse (A Pattern Recognition Exercise) TO: Anyone still reading earnings calls instead of order flow FROM: The desk DATE: Feb 13…
THE WHIPSAW NOBODY WANTED: A BRIEF MEDITATION ON BROKEN RISK MODELS
THE WHIPSAW NOBODY WANTED: A BRIEF MEDITATION ON BROKEN RISK MODELS So Wednesday morning the jobs report lands at 8:30 a.m. like a meteorite nobody ordered. 130,000 new jobs.…
How to Pretend You're Cutting Rates While Cutting Nothing
How to Pretend You're Cutting Rates While Cutting Nothing It's fascinating, in the way a slow-motion train wreck is fascinating, to watch the Federal Reserve play 4D chess with…