Powell's term expires May 15
Powell's term expires May 15. The DOJ dropped its criminal probe of him this morning. Jeanine Pirro announced it on X, said the inspector general would handle it from here, and…
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The Strait, The Ceasefire, and the Market's Embarrassing Optimism
MEMO: Re: The Strait, The Ceasefire, and the Market's Embarrassing Optimism TO: Anyone still pricing in a peace deal FROM: Recent history DATE: April 24, 2026 RE: You've…
Dear Software: The War Called. It Wants Its Excuse Back.
Dear Software: The War Called. It Wants Its Excuse Back. Markets & Macro — April 23, 2026 TO: Enterprise Software Sector FROM: The Market RE: Q1 2026 Earnings Season — A…
Sock Puppet Economics
Sock Puppet Economics April 22, 2026 MEMORANDUM TO: Anyone still pretending the Federal Reserve is a normal institution FROM: The situation RE: Yesterday Kevin Warsh sat…
THE POACHER THEY JUST PUT IN CHARGE OF THE HEN HOUSE
INTERNAL MEMO: RE: THE POACHER THEY JUST PUT IN CHARGE OF THE HEN HOUSE TO: Anyone who still thinks the Federal Reserve is a neutral institution FROM: The part of your brain…
The dominant tension
The Strait of Hormuz cracked open again over the weekend, tankers queued up like nothing had happened, and crude still plunged double digits on Friday before the weekend. May WTI…
Twenty-Six Days
Twenty-Six Days Jerome Powell has twenty-six days left. On May 15, his term as Federal Reserve Chair expires, and with it ends one of the stranger tenures in the institution's…
The Best of Times
MEMO: Re: The Best of Times To: Anyone still reading earnings releases in good faith From: The Market Re: Q1 2026 — We need to talk Saturday, April 18, 2026 | Ticker | Q1…
Dear Diary: The S&P Just Hit 7,000 and There's a Naval Blockade
Dear Diary: The S&P Just Hit 7,000 and There's a Naval Blockade April 17, 2026 Let me walk you through the week's most important number. Not 7,022. Not $95 Brent. Not the IMF's…
Notes Toward a Theory of Markets That Have Decided Not to Care
Notes Toward a Theory of Markets That Have Decided Not to Care Thursday, April 16, 2026 There is a category of market behavior that doesn't fit neatly into any framework. Not…