Buy The Dip, Sell The Dip, Repeat Until Liquidity Dies
Buy The Dip, Sell The Dip, Repeat Until Liquidity Dies Six trading days. That's how long it took the AI trade to go from "BofA note triggers semis bloodbath, Nasdaq-100 sheds…
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An Open Letter to the Soft Landing Consensus
An Open Letter to the Soft Landing Consensus To: Every strategist who wrote "one more cut and we're done" in the fourth quarter of 2024 You were so close. The disinflation had…
Warsh's Opening Move Was Hawkish. The Bond Market Isn't Fully Convinced.
Warsh's Opening Move Was Hawkish. The Bond Market Isn't Fully Convinced. On June 17th, the two-year Treasury yield jumped 16 basis points in a single session. That was the…
The Sheriff Arrived Just As The Outlaws Left Town
The Sheriff Arrived Just As The Outlaws Left Town The May PCE report came in Thursday and it was, by almost every headline metric, the number that Warsh hawks have been pointing…
Thursday, 9:47 AM. The PCE Just Printed. Someone Is Buying Wendy's.
Thursday, 9:47 AM. The PCE Just Printed. Someone Is Buying Wendy's. The number hits at 8:30. Headline PCE 4.1%, highest in three years. Core at 3.4%. In line with estimates…
MACRO DESK
INTERNAL NOTE — MACRO DESK Re: The Energy Trade Has Turned. Update Your Models. Brent closed at $73.74 on Wednesday. WTI at $70.34. Both at their lowest level since before the…
Seven Funerals and a Bond Market
Seven Funerals and a Bond Market Britain is about to inaugurate its seventh prime minister in roughly a decade. Let that integer breathe for a moment. Seven. In the same stretch…
The Night Before Micron
The Night Before Micron It's the night before Micron reports and I'm doing what I always do the night before a memory company reports a potentially cycle-defining number:…
The Warsh Dove Trade. An Autopsy.
INTERNAL — RATES & MACRO DESK Re: The Warsh Dove Trade. An Autopsy. Monday, June 22 Let's get this done quickly so we can move on. The thesis was clean. Too clean, in…
To Every Fund Manager Who Put SPCX In Their Model Portfolio This Week
To Every Fund Manager Who Put SPCX In Their Model Portfolio This Week Memo format. No sender. No recipient. You know who you are. Let's establish what actually happened.…