The dominant tension
The Strait of Hormuz cracked open again over the weekend, tankers queued up like nothing had happened, and crude still plunged double digits on Friday before the weekend. May WTI…
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Twenty-Six Days
Twenty-Six Days Jerome Powell has twenty-six days left. On May 15, his term as Federal Reserve Chair expires, and with it ends one of the stranger tenures in the institution's…
The Best of Times
MEMO: Re: The Best of Times To: Anyone still reading earnings releases in good faith From: The Market Re: Q1 2026 — We need to talk Saturday, April 18, 2026 | Ticker | Q1…
Dear Diary: The S&P Just Hit 7,000 and There's a Naval Blockade
Dear Diary: The S&P Just Hit 7,000 and There's a Naval Blockade April 17, 2026 Let me walk you through the week's most important number. Not 7,022. Not $95 Brent. Not the IMF's…
Notes Toward a Theory of Markets That Have Decided Not to Care
Notes Toward a Theory of Markets That Have Decided Not to Care Thursday, April 16, 2026 There is a category of market behavior that doesn't fit neatly into any framework. Not…
The numbers don't know there's a war on
INTERNAL MEMO: Q1 2026 DEBRIEF TO: Anyone who still reads these FROM: The desk RE: The numbers don't know there's a war on DATE: April 15, 2026 Colleagues, Per our…
The $470 billion question nobody wants to answer straight
The hyperscalers will spend north of $470 billion on AI infrastructure this year. Meta alone has guided for $115 to $135 billion in capital expenditure — the company just…
THE PEACE PREMIUM IS A LIE
THE PEACE PREMIUM IS A LIE Monday, April 13, 2026 | Asset | Price | Move | |---|---|---| | Crude Oil (WTI) | $104.78 | +8.50% today | | S&P 500 (futures) | 6,781 | −1.08% today…
The Slow Dismantling of a Continent's Last Industry
The Slow Dismantling of a Continent's Last Industry There is a particular kind of decline that happens in plain sight and still goes unnoticed until the numbers make denial…
A Eulogy for the Digital Gold Thesis
A Eulogy for the Digital Gold Thesis April 11, 2026 Gold is at $4,768. Bitcoin is at $72,204. Someone on the internet is calling this a validation. It isn't. Gold has been…