Notes Toward a Theory of Markets That Have Decided Not to Care
Notes Toward a Theory of Markets That Have Decided Not to Care Thursday, April 16, 2026 There is a category of market behavior that doesn't fit neatly into any framework. Not…
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The numbers don't know there's a war on
INTERNAL MEMO: Q1 2026 DEBRIEF TO: Anyone who still reads these FROM: The desk RE: The numbers don't know there's a war on DATE: April 15, 2026 Colleagues, Per our…
The $470 billion question nobody wants to answer straight
The hyperscalers will spend north of $470 billion on AI infrastructure this year. Meta alone has guided for $115 to $135 billion in capital expenditure — the company just…
THE PEACE PREMIUM IS A LIE
THE PEACE PREMIUM IS A LIE Monday, April 13, 2026 | Asset | Price | Move | |---|---|---| | Crude Oil (WTI) | $104.78 | +8.50% today | | S&P 500 (futures) | 6,781 | −1.08% today…
The Slow Dismantling of a Continent's Last Industry
The Slow Dismantling of a Continent's Last Industry There is a particular kind of decline that happens in plain sight and still goes unnoticed until the numbers make denial…
A Eulogy for the Digital Gold Thesis
A Eulogy for the Digital Gold Thesis April 11, 2026 Gold is at $4,768. Bitcoin is at $72,204. Someone on the internet is calling this a validation. It isn't. Gold has been…
TOKYO HAS SEEN THIS MOVIE BEFORE. IT DID NOT END WELL.
TOKYO HAS SEEN THIS MOVIE BEFORE. IT DID NOT END WELL. There is a particular cruelty to Japan's situation right now that gets lost in the daily churn of Hormuz headlines and S&P…
everything is fine
Please be advised that everything is fine. The S&P 500 is up 2.5%. The Dow added 1,325 points. Brent crude fell 13.4% to $94.68 in a single session. Bitcoin crossed $71,000.…
The World's Hardest Asset Is Held Hostage by a 21-Mile Strait
The World's Hardest Asset Is Held Hostage by a 21-Mile Strait There is something cosmically embarrassing about Bitcoin's 2026. The asset that was supposed to be beyond the…
The Cruelest Data Point
The Cruelest Data Point Imagine designing a stress test for central bankers. You would want a jobs number that comes in at nearly three times expectations, dropping on a day…