The ETF approval: Failing Expectations?
In the first 24 hours after the ETF approvals, we saw a spike in the price of BTC and this time over 47k. It seemed like the uptrend would continue, but after two to 3 days it hasn't happened. In fact, we've seen crazy dips and BTC currently sits at 43k a price that was achieved in December.
In fact, the most bizarre aspect of this is that the alts have dipped more than they actually gained, following the BTC dip and of course, January itself is now looking bearish.
For me, I'm not surprised. December was a completely bullish month and even January started well, but I think that apart from the price manipulation that might be happening, some corrections are already due and I think people might just catch a break this month, and take the depressive state of the market as an opportunity to keep accumulating.
The ETF hype is gradually dying, the FOMO and everything seems like a facade, everyone is now back to their corner and new reality. The approvals are not fast-forwarding the bull run after all. However, on the flip side, the trading volumes have been good and this might negate my stance that the hype is dying. When I say the "hype" I mean to say that the expectations that these approvals will propel the market to crazy figures are gradually dying.
The organizations that got their spot ETF approved are having good business, I'm not saying that this wouldn't benefit crypto in the long run, all I'm saying is that these organizations are looking to make more money and they see the ETF as a way to do so. So business has been good for them, let's see how this would turn out in maybe two or three months from now. Blackrock is back in business and we really need to assess or study what's going to happen in the next two months because it might be integral to what will happen to price.
The next big event is going to be the halving. This one will directly affect the tokenomics of BTC and have more impact on it more than the ETF approval. However, this doesn't still mean that anything special will happen after the halving. The halving is a form of a harbinger, an event that must take place for the market to take closer steps to what we deem as the bull market, and it only means BTC gets scarcer.
The halving is 100 days away, and between now and then, anything is possible. Overall I think the organizations that have gotten the approval have done well for themselves and the reason is say this is because it's business after all. So I'm thinking we might have to wait a few months to see the true impact on BTC and the alts at large.
For now, a lot is currently happening with the market, predictions are flying here and there, but I still maintain my belief that everything that will significantly happen to crypto this year will happen in the last quarter of the year. Before then I think the market is still open and by September it'll already be too late for anyone to invest, including in the alts.
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It looks like we have a mini pause the alt season. I think the Fed pivot in March is the next big news. Let's see if they do or not. Everything hangs on it imo.
Well let's see as well. I feel as if there are many parameters apart from the FEDS but it's going to be a year where multiple events will likely influence the price of Crypto.
I agree, there are a few things which should make it a great bull run! Not forgetting the price predictions of Standard Chartered and the predicted speed of BTC adoption..
I agree, let's lookout for how it's going to finally unfold.
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The dip was actually surprising
I felt it will continue to go up, lol
Let’s see if there will be a comeback
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Great write up, I think there was far too much hype about the BTC ETF. The BTC price will inevitably go higher as the years go by and more people understand BTC and cryptos deeply. Right now the fiat system is working well for many of those that have money, the savvy ones like Blackrock are realizing that BTC and cryptos will eventually replace fiat.
The transformation has began and the best strategy is to keep accumulating. After the gold ETF approval in 2003, the price of gold went up over 500% to date. The same or even higher is predicted for BTC with this ETF approval. It is therefore too early to speculate or predict; the future is bright for crypto as a whole.
Thank you for sharing and keep enjoying your weekend :}
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I think the price was already baked in to an extent. Most people were talking about the ETF approval being a done deal even if there were a few people talking about FUD. So I think the move upwards till now has both the ETF and the halving priced baked in to an extent.
Let's see how it goes, I think we might still see some erratic movement in price soon enough.
I would like to say here that ETF has not failed. You will see that the market cannot be taken over at once. All things have to be looked at. We will see that again after some time. The market will start to move up as we have now entered the bull cycle.