Der Preis der Unsicherheit.../The price of uncertainty...
Wenn wir über Kryptowährungen sprechen, sind Sicherheit und Unsicherheit zwei elementare Begriffe. Sie definieren das Chance-Risiko-Verhältnis einer Investition.
Dazwischen ist jedoch viel Raum. Man könnte sagen: Eine Grauzone zwischen Sicherheit und Unsicherheit. Beide Seiten haben ihren Preis und wir als Investoren müssen ihn bezahlen. Auf die eine oder andere Art.
Schon Warren Buffett sagte, dass ein kleines bisschen Sicherheit an der Börse einen hohen Preis hat. Das ist wahr. Wenn wir als Investoren besonders defensiv und ohne Risiko agieren, sehen wir häufig hohe Bewertungen. Der Preis der Sicherheit ist daher hoch. Gleichsam ist das Renditepotenzial bei einer solchen Investition sicherer.
Sicherheit führt daher schnell zu hohen Bewertungen und niedrigeren Renditeerwartungen. Das ist der erste Preis, den wir als Investoren bereit sein müssen, zu bezahlen.
Die Unsicherheit hat einen anderen Preis, den wir bezahlen müssen. Allerdings preist der Markt ein, dass Kryptowährungen noch starke Zuwächse vor sich haben. Aus einer langfristigen und häufig erst profitabler werdenden Perspektive heraus könnte in Zukunft eine Value-These mit einer hohen Rendite möglich sein.
Der Preis für solche Chancen ist jedoch die Möglichkeit des Scheiterns.
Ich zitierte aus folgenden Artikel...
https://www.aktienwelt360.de/2023/09/09/bist-du-bereit-den-preis-der-un-sicherheit-zu-bezahlen/
Mein persönliches Fazit:
Um ein erfolgreicher Investor zu werden, braucht man nicht nur Kapital, sondern auch viel Glück. Bei Bitcoin und Ethereum sinkt das Risiko zu scheitern täglich, aber auch die mögliche Rendite beim nächsten Bull Run. Um einen guten Mittelweg zwischen Risiko und Rendite zu finden, plädiere ich für eine Diversifikation in ausgewählte Altcoins. Vielleicht ist auch ein kleines Stück Gold dabei.
Wer nicht wagt, der nicht gewinnt.
Wichtig ist auch der Mut eine Fehlinvestition im Minus zu verkaufen und im Kryptoherbst zumindest einen Teil der Gewinne zu realisieren.
English
When we talk about cryptocurrencies, security and insecurity are two fundamental concepts. They define the risk-reward ratio of an investment.
However, there is a lot of space in between. You could say: a gray area between security and uncertainty. Both sides have their price and we as investors have to pay it. In one way or another.
Warren Buffett already said that a little bit of security on the stock market comes at a high price. This is true. When we as investors act particularly defensively and without risk, we often see high valuations. The price of security is therefore high. At the same time, the return potential with such an investment is safer.
Security therefore quickly leads to high valuations and lower return expectations. That is the first price we as investors must be willing to pay.
Uncertainty has a different price that we must pay. However, the market is pricing in that cryptocurrencies still have strong gains ahead of them. From a long-term perspective that often only becomes profitable, a value thesis with a high return could be possible in the future.
However, the price of such opportunities is the possibility of failure.
I have quoted from the following articles...
https://www.aktienwelt360.de/2023/09/09/bist-du-ready-den-preis-der-un-sicherheit-zu-bezahlen/
My personal conclusion:
To become a successful investor, you not only need capital, but also a lot of luck. With Bitcoin and Ethereum the risk decreases every day, but so does the possible return in the next bull run. In order to find a good balance between risk and return, I advocate diversification in selected altcoins. Maybe there is also a small piece of gold.
Nothing ventured nothing gained.
It is also important to have the courage to sell a bad investment at a loss and to realize at least part of the profits in the crypto autumn.
Wahre Worte. Chance und Risiko sind zwei Seiten derselben Medaille 🥇
Und gerade schaue ich die Komödie "Wolf of Wallstreet"
Wie passend heute 😇
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What I love about your articles is that I am getting a good chance to read in German again ... the ability is returning, and on a subject I am interested in, and well-written!
Was ich an Ihren Artikeln liebe, ist, dass ich eine gute Chance bekomme, wieder auf Deutsch zu lesen ... die Fähigkeit kehrt zurück, und zwar zu einem Thema, das mich interessiert und das gut geschrieben ist!
Oh das ist interessant zu lesen. Woher stammt dein Interesse in der deutschen Sprache zu lesen?
Die deutsche Sprache ist leider eine komplizierte Sprache.
Mich freut es sehr wenn du meine Post liest und einen freundlichen Kommentar hinterlässt.
Ich habe Deutsch in die Universität gelernt, aber habe ich viel Deutsch vergessen. So bin ich Deutsch wieder lernen!
Ich gerne die Musik auf Deutschland ... Bach, Beethoven, Brahms ... ich gerne die Bass Meistersingers ... Möll, Hotter, Adam, Ridderbusch ...
(Und von hier aus muss ich zurück zu Google Translate gehen!)
Ich bewundere auch die starke Haltung Deutschlands gegen Rassismus seit 1945 ... meine eigene Nation könnte ein oder zwei Dinge von Deutschland lernen!
You learned German at university? Do you live in one of Germany's former colonies? Namibia?
Bach and Co are too classical for me, I prefer to listen to modern music but with classical support.
In my region lived some famous poets... Gottfried August Bürger and Götter. Also, the first human rights were written not 5km from me.
However, I have to disappoint you with regard to Germany's asylum policy. In the media it is presented in a flowery way, but the reality is different.
My wife worked in an asylum seeker position. The people are treated like cattle by the politicians. The support of the population is also no longer there. Because politics expropriates citizens and throws billions out of the window.
Some of the workers who get asylum are not allowed to work. And unfortunately, crime has risen sharply in the vicinity of the reception centres. Instead of integrating asylum seekers, the state locks them up in arrival centres.
I live in the United States, specifically in San Francisco, CA, a city with much German-American history, but it was the study of classical music combined with my love of nature that drew me toward Germany's language and culture (bonus points for the Heidelberg Gospel Choir having sung at my church here in San Francisco -- I am also a gospel musician, so there is a double overlap around gospel and jazz as well as classical -- I appreciate the German appreciation of good music of all types). I had my choice of second language and chose German.
I realize, however, that reality in any country is more complex than an admirer from half a world away can easily see. I am glad to hear the truth you are telling me beyond the news I get here, because it is the truth, although the truth is sad and even chilling, given the history ... my heartbreak for my own nation in this area now has to embrace my second-favorite nation. But then again, people who have a concern for human rights and freedom have not yet been counted out here or there ... so, we keep doing what we can and work for better!
Very nice. You live in San Francisco... I want to visit this beautiful city with my wife one day. We visited New York in 2017. It is impressive for me to see such huge cities. I come from a small village with 400 inhabitants.
I think it is always important to distinguish between what the media spreads and what is reality. The media spreads the agenda of the politicians. The citizens of a country should never be equated with the politicians.
In New York, we also got into conversation with some Americans and they were all very inquisitive when we said that we were from Germany.
Personally, I was very happy about the friendly New Yorkers. In my opinion, American politicians are not that popular in the world. Except for Arnold Schwarzenegger 😉 (but he's from Austria).
Everyone should never pre-judge other citizens. I think we can help all citizens by sharing our knowledge.
PS. @w74 is also an absolute Jazz lover 😉
You could have let @deeandmethews know that, in addition to jazz, letters arranged in a logical sequence is also one of my favourite things 😊😉.
But I'll be sure to let her know.
Thank you so much for introducing us to each other.
Ihr zwei seid alt genug, jetzt könnt ihr gerne zusammen eure Leidenschaft mit Jazz und freewriting teilen.
Es würde mich natürlich freuen wenn ihr euer Fachwissen Austausch 😉
@der-prophet als erfolgreicher Kuppler!
Wie die du selbst erkennen kannst, öffnet sich hiermit für dich ein komplett neues Betätigungsfeld. 😊
Beste Grüße
Ich verbinde nur Möglichkeiten für einen Erfahrungsaustausch. Die Welt soll in meinen Augen erblühen, durch intelligente Menschen die ihre Interessen teilen. Das Universum entscheidet eh mit wem wir befreundet sind um neue Freunde kennenzulernen. 😇
Eine Namensänderung scheint unumgänglich.
Aus @der-prophet wird @der-philosoph. 😎😲
Ich kann doch nicht für jedes Interesse von mir einen Account erstellen 😇
Well, hello, new friend -- wie geht's? I hear we share some favorite music ...
... and some favorite things about putting letters in order in freewriting! It's nice to meet you!
In this way, the pleasure is based on a reciprocity that so rarely exists.
Writing and music (in this case jazz) are inseparable. If you have a look at the guest list for my weekly jazz matinee, you will see that I completely dispense with the "old masters" and try to give a chance to the "young wild ones". But that doesn't mean I ignore the classics. No, they're just reserved for those lazy hours at home.
Monk Solo - for me one of the best invitations to close my eyes and enjoy cinema in my head.
As far as putting words together to form colourful surprises that can also be called sentences is concerned, I am certain that we will find a common language in the future.
I will have a look at your matinee ... for me jazz pretty much stops with Miles Davis, with an exception made for Wynton Marsalis, but I am open to learning of new groups!
The Goethe Institute is here in San Francisco, and there are so many Germans who come visit here yearly that we have fabulous German food here, but also any other kind you might like to try ... in San Francisco, you can eat around the world in seven square miles. The city has its rougher sides ... but come to its western side, and see all its glorious parks ... it is the joy of my life to live in walking distance of FOUR such and also SEVERAL glorious hills, and to be beyond the sounds of cars and most people and be thinking of what Beethoven might have thought of when he wrote the middle movement of his 5th Symphony, or Strauss when he wrote "Das Tal" ...
My father's birthplace, when he was born, was not much larger than the village where you live ... I remember that country life is so much different from city life in that way because of the visits there ... San Francisco is not a big city by comparison to New York or Los Angeles, though ... New York struck me as very large, but a good place, then, for those serious about their lives. I was there for a concert that included my own music.
About the media ... we get Deutsche Welle in English here mostly ... I also love the documentaries ... so, the presentation is of Germany with a certain history but doing its best to fight its way up and away from the bad parts ... so many of us here are rooting for Germany to get it right like we root for our own nation, because German immigrants have impacted our own nation for the better over so much of our history. For me as an African American who loves music, it is not possible for me to not want to see Germany do well ... but I recognize that it is not my choice to make. I appreciate you telling me the truth, the truth on the ground. You have indeed helped me have a clearer understanding.
About American politicians: Arnold Schwarzenegger was my governor here in California for many years. He is an earnest, stand-up man who owns both his good decisions and his bad -- AGAIN, another solid representation of what I love about German culture, although the life of a celebrity turned governor was a bit hard for everybody at the time! But I would take him over many of the choices we have today! We don't like our politicians either -- which is why we change them so often. LITERALLY, that is the only thing keeping the country from PERPETUALLY being in civil war. The challenge for the United States is deeper than that for Germany. We were founded -- FOUNDED -- by men who thought they could hold other humans as chattel, and so as people progress in power, they tend to revert to that thinking -- FOUNDING THINKING, not incidental, FOUNDING. It is literally a national birthright here to live as a slave owner over others. Everything that is good about the nation is from those of us fighting back and making progress against being declared less than human and so less than worthy of human rights (the designation generally assigned to everyone NOT a rich Anglo-Saxon male, as described in our Constitution before the amendments) ... but progress ebbs and flows, and it has ebbed in the past six years. We have high ideals ... the challenge is, so many politicians see governance as their plantation, and we the people are their slaves.
On the other hand, as someone who gets in the face of local politicians in San Francisco when necessary, the good thing about the United States is the Bill of Rights, specifically the First Amendment and the right to free speech and directly petitioning the government -- meaning, I can get in the face of whoever I need to to let them know: "You need ME more than I need you -- you didn't elect me to freedom but I will work to get you out of that seat if you keep playing with the people I serve." We can still change those politicians out, every few years ... we can still let them know they are not as in charge as they think they are, DAILY, if we want. We pray it prove to be enough ...
Göthe wrote his work "FAUST" in my region. It is about a pact with the devil. Gottfried August Bürger, who grew up in my village, even helped Beethoven compose the 5th Symphony.
I even find it interesting to mention that my village is 800 years old, 3 times older than the USA. 😇
Big cities actually overwhelm me, but visiting New York was an interesting experience. Maybe we will fly the 9 hours to San Francisco at the next Bitcoin Autumn in 2025. Then I can bring my Bitcoin to America like I did in New York.
I also like to take a look at the history of Germany and the USA. Unfortunately, there was a time in Germany that one cannot be proud of. Germany is still paying reparations for the First World War.
With the Federal Republic and the German Democratic Republic, politics even manipulated Germans into shooting at themselves.
I don't trust politicians any more anyway. That's why I no longer see any point in elections. Unfortunately, we citizens only have the choice to elect our ruler.
Unfortunately, Arnold Schwarzenegger is not German.
Unfortunately, I claim that all citizens are now slaves. Or at least freer slaves who pay a lot of taxes.
I know about Faust ... how many times have I heard versions of that great drama presented in music ... Goethe's work still inspires so many!
Yes, I know there is a time in Germany not to be proud of ... but here is the thing I see from here: Germany admits to that and is still making things right (however imperfectly or reluctantly). My nation still has many MILLIONS that carry their Confederate flags and Jim Crow longings OPENLY, and the nation as a policy matter WILL NOT even CONSIDER reparations. Now, the United States is just that much bigger, so it is hard to get this many people over such a large land mass pointed in one direction ... but the idea that crimes against humanity and the veneration of those who did those things should be openly flirted with ought to be out of the question for a nation with our ideals. It is not. So, we may forever be a house divided ... but I will say for the United States that there is room enough for freedom to have its bastions. Always has been. I pray there always will be.
I have heard of Herr Bürger once or twice before ... he does not get the credit he deserves, but it is good to know of his contributions.
Now, about Arnold Schwarzenegger not being German ... I am willing to take correction with an apology because of the look of things from here, where becoming a full citizen is a relatively easy matter of naturalization ... although I know that Germany and Austria have their own unique histories (with Austria and Hungary being linked), the line is quite blurred because a certain Anschlüss in 1938 has confused the matter. We here tend to think of German culture and people not bound by the actual dimensions of Germany because those boundaries have changed a lot in the past century, and since before 1870, there were more than 300 German principalities ... most people here do not even know that, but the point here is that it is hard to know where "Germanness" ends among so many German speakers in one big region. Now I happen to also know that dialect-wise, the German spoken in Hamburg and Vienna are quite different, for example ... but it is hard to grasp where the national and cultural bounds take on a hard line. I would expect a hard line between German-American and actual German, but German-Austrian and actual German ... that is a surprise! From a German perspective, what does it actually mean to be German?
(Although I do remember hearing while growing up that particular distinction being made about ONE Austrian in particular who was sadly elected chancellor of Germany ... but I thought that applied only to him because of who he was!)
Now about slavery -- my grandmother knew her enslaved grandparents, and so I know those stories as only four generations back. As an African American well-informed about such history, I can assure you that you and I are not in slavery just yet ... not YET ... but I will meet you at "neo-serfdom" as a compromise. "Indentured servitude" is another good term ... and given that that pretty much matches up with some older forms of slavery before what was done in North America, I can even meet you there. But the fact that we can have this conversation, in this form, on this blockchain, means there is hope still.
Gottfried August Bürger should actually be world famous because he invented the speech bubble with his comic strip "Der Lügenbaron". They are common in all comics today. With the Lügenbaron he satirically made fun of politicians, for example. He was also a freemason, just like Mozart and George Washington 😉 😉 The Liar Baron is a comic strip.
German history clearly shows how people can be manipulated. When the first and second world wars broke out, one must remember that all the royal houses in Europe were related. Cousins turned their subjects against each other. European citizens were sacrificed like chess pieces.
After the Second World War, Austria became an independent country again. Germany was divided into West Germany and East Germany. And the citizens were set against each other. Similar to South Korea and North Korea.
American foreign policy is designed to maintain power. History shows that the USA unfortunately no longer has a clean slate either.
But I would never blame the American citizens for that. You are manipulated by your politicians just like we are here in Germany.
I think slaves who work under duress are unmotivated slaves. We are modern slaves today, if I add up all the compulsory taxes in Germany then you pay 80% taxes here. So we are only 20% freer than a forced labourer.
How much is left over from your salary?
"Sacrificed like chess pieces" ... I agree with that assessment of the world wars, both there and here. The citizens, sadly, always are manipulated. I talk with friends here about how voting for the lesser of two evils is not the way to go, but it is hard now to find good to vote for. It can be done, but in my lifetime, it has been very hard, particularly for president.
I knew that both Mozart and Washington were Freemasons ... that was a big time in Masonry for prominent men of European descent .. but, Bürger is a little late getting his credit, indeed.
The USA never had a clean slate. Ask any surviving Native American, or my grandmother's grandmother (or me, the bearer of that history). That is a settled fact for anyone with a basic knowledge of history here, although we do not have the complexity of feudalism to consider ... it is a chilling thought to think of cousins getting their subjects to fight each other as you describe it. The American Civil War can be thought of in something like those terms, though ... the country's leading families split. George Washington's own family went extinct, fighting for the Confederacy against the nation Washington helped found.
Here in the United States, we have graduated state and federal taxes ... an 80 percent combined rate is unheard of. Most of us sit between about 20-50 percent in taxes. But also, there is further complexity based on different tax rates depending on if you own a business, and what type. But here is the tradeoff: there is not much of a social safety net. Healthcare and education costs are ridiculous. Many people here would gladly pay 80 percent taxes to a government that actually takes care of those needs. Germany and its northern neighbors the Scandinavian countries are often held up as good models ... never mind that size and population alone in the USA means those models won't quite track. But I will say that having more income after taxes leads to having more choices, even though we may not like the choices we have.
For the sake of my grandmother's grandmother, though, I will hold the point: if you are paid AT ALL, and can discuss tax rates you then in turn have to pay, you are not in slavery as I understand it. The USA is rich because it had 246 years of brutally extracted free labor from Africans not even permitted to keep their own names -- it was called the peculiar institution because NOTHING compares with it in at least modern history. So we will have to agree to disagree on the designation of slavery whenever someone has payment enough to even be taxed. I will say 80 percent taxation is indeed a heavy burden ... it may explain why I see more and more Germans coming to live here, such that German food offerings are expanding in the city (and this is a BLESSING), and the Goethe Institute is becoming more and more prominent.
Ich finde jeder Mensch hat immer eine Wahl. Leider hat die Gesinnung nichts mit Intelligenz zu tun. Auch in Deutschland gibt's immer noch Rechtsradikale und Linksradikale Strömungen die langsam wieder an Macht gewinnen.
Ich empfinde es mittlerweile so das ein Wahl von Politikern nichts mehr ändert . Eine Wahl ist nur noch ein Meinungsbarometer der Bevölkerung.
Deswegen stehe ich für meinem Blog dafür ein das sich Menschen bilden und Finanziell frei werden . Um nicht einem Rechten oder Linken Führer zu folgen.
2018 durfte ich sogar an einem Freimaurer Seminar teilnehmen und dem Evangelischen Pastor der der Anführer dieser Loge war ein paar Fragen Stellen. 😇
Ich finde es sehr interessant von dir aus erster Hand mehr über die Geschichte der USA und Gesetze zu erfahren!
In Deutschland würden es viele verneinen wenn ich behaupte das wir 80% Steuern zahlen. Der Spitzensteuersatz liegt hier bei 42%, wenn ich allerdings alle Sozialenleistungen wie Arbeitslosengeld, Pflegegeld,Rentenversicherung usw. Dazu zählen dann sind wir bei 80% . Sicher ist es für die meisten Bürger ein Rettungsanker. Aber diese Steuern werden eben auch für Dinge missbraucht die dem Deutschen Bürger nicht zu Gute kommen. Wir haben z.b. mehr Politiker im Bundestag als die USA und Russland zusammen. Hier wird enorm viel Geld verschwenden.
Wer aber viel Geld Besitzt oder Selbstständig ist kann seine Steuerlast enorm drücken. Steuern sind für mich mittlerweile Schutzgeld Erpressung ähnlich wie bei der Mafia.
Auch in unsere Schulen wird kaum investiert, wir haben Lehrer Mangel, zu groß Klassen und die Schulen selbst sind veraltet. Wem nützt schon ein schlauer Bürger???
Interessanterweise müßte Afrika eigentlich der Reichste Kontinent sein. Denn Afrika hat alle Rohstoffe,Gold, Diamanten aber eben keine gebildete Bevölkerung. Die USA, Europa, Russland und China beuten Afrika bis heute aus.
Ich hatte mal einen Post gemacht über die Moderne Sklaverei so wie sie heute ist. Mensch die das Gefühl haben frei zu sein sind wesentlich motiviertere Sklaven.
I think everyone always has a choice. Unfortunately, attitude has nothing to do with intelligence. Even in Germany there are still radical right-wing and radical left-wing movements that are slowly gaining power again.
I now feel that electing politicians doesn't change anything. An election is now just a barometer of the population's opinion.
That's why I advocate for people to educate themselves and become financially free on my blog. To not follow a right or left leader.
In 2018 I was even allowed to take part in a Masonic seminar and ask the Evangelical pastor who was the leader of this lodge a few questions. 😇
I find it very interesting to learn more about US history and laws from you first hand!
Many people in Germany would deny it if I claimed that we pay 80% taxes. The top tax rate here is 42%, but if I include all social benefits such as unemployment benefit, care allowance, pension insurance, etc. then we are at 80%. It is certainly a lifeline for most citizens. But these taxes are also misused for things that do not benefit German citizens. We have e.g. more politicians in the Bundestag than the USA and Russia combined. A huge amount of money is being wasted here.
But if you have a lot of money or are self-employed, your tax burden can be reduced enormously. For me, taxes are now protection money, extortion, similar to the mafia.
There is also hardly any investment in our schools, we have a shortage of teachers, classes are too large and the schools themselves are outdated. Who benefits from a smart citizen???
Interestingly, Africa should actually be the richest continent. Because Africa has all the raw materials, gold, diamonds but no educated population. The USA, Europe, Russia and China continue to exploit Africa to this day.
I once made a post about modern slavery as it is today. People who feel like they are free are much more motivated slaves.
You also need to be wise and strategic about your investments if you want to be a successful investor
Nice one!
Investing with a plan is advisable 😉
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