Waiting for the Bitcoin ETFs in vain?
What most people think
There is a sense of excitement since weeks in the crypto space and especially within the Bitcoin community. And we all know why: Because of all the Bitcoin Spot ETF filings that are lining up at the SEC and the probability of them to finally get approved. As a logical consequence most people believe we will see a huge price pump after such an approval, since a lot of money seems to be waiting to enter the market. Because Blackrock, State Street and alikes have billions of dollars under management, don’t they? The only question seems to be WHEN this epic bullrun will start and how fast Bitcoin will cross the 100k Dollar mark.
What might be wrong
Actually I saw a post of famous PlanB on X today, who raised a valid question:
What if Bitcoin won’t pump to 100k as consequence of all the Bitcoin Spot ETFs? Or is the probability of SEC approval not 90%? Here is a post that I commented myself:
If we have efficient markets and we have a 90% chance of a 100k Bitcoin, the current price should reflect that and we should trade much higher than we do. There was quite some speculation below the post what might be the reason for this divergence or paradox.
Maybe we even won’t get an approval anytime soon. Maybe we are all waiting in vain and the price action we saw the past weeks and months was just a bear market rally. What if that is the case?
What I think about it
Well, I thought about this and this is my conclusion for today: We are beginning to see FUD raising again. People are beginning to get anxious again, they begin to doubt if we really have a new bull market approaching which is catalysed by those ETFs.
But this is normal market psychology in my view. And it’s healthy. We don’t need too much greed and optimism, we need to calm down a bit after the rally we saw this year. Because let’s face it: the bull market isn’t starting, actually it is running already. Bitcoin is up +100% from its low, other coins like Ethereum or Solana also saw triple digit gains yet. Hive is still a bit hesitant but will probably rally further too.
So, just keep calm and hodl on, guys! The next wave to the upside will come and we won’t have to wait for long. I am also pretty sure we will see the 100k Bitcoin, even if SEC won’t approve the ETFs next year. It’s a catalyst, not the reason for another Bitcoin and crypto bullrun. We should remain positive, the year ahead will be a big one.
What is your oppinion about this?
Spannend, wann Bitcoin die 100K Marke durchbricht, vor oder nach dem Halving?
Ich denke erst nach dem Halving. Aber noch in 2024. Was meinst du?
Vlt schon vorher, wenn ETFs genehmigt werden, und die Börsen bis dahin nicht crashen. Aber wie immer unberechenbar. War überrascht, dass wir beim letzten Bullrun die 100K nicht durchbrochen haben. Aber denke es wird passieren, wenn man das ganze Gelddrucken bedenkt.
Well, the question that says what if BTC won’t pump to 100k is quite funny. We all know this is certain even though it may not happen anytime soon
Let’s see what the future holds though
Before January 10 they have to approve the ETF, we will see if they will do it on some date because they can't wait till January 10 otherwise there will be a lot of pressure on the market and the exchanges will not be able to handle it again.
Yay! 🤗
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