So the General Election campaigns have started...

Rishi Sunak's surprise decision to call a general election campaign - and it really took everyone by surprise - was overshadowed by his announcement of it in the pouring rain, with Steve Bray (of "Stop Brexit" fame) maliciously blasting loud music at the gates of Downing Street in an effort to drown the Prime Minister's speech out.

All the pundits immediately started chattering about "dreadful optics" and how this doomed the Tory campaign, especially as they were 20 points behind in the polls.

But do voters really care about this stuff?

Steve Bray's incessant hollering from 2017-2019, when he tried to interupt every broadcast from Parliament Square by yelling "Stooop Brexit" through a megaphone, arguably annoyed voters so much, it stiffened their resolve to vote for Boris to shut him up.

I'm not convinced people decide elections based on gaffes.

For example, in the lead-up to the 2015 election, David Cameron tripped up on the name of the football team he supposedly supported. No-one actually believed he'd ever watched a football game in his life. Labour were cock-a-hoop. They were convinced this gaffe plus their polling lead would propel them to power.

When Labour lost the election, they then convinced themselves that it was Ed Miliband's gaffes that cost them the election. The cringe picture of him trying to shove a bacon sandwich in his mouth and the daft "Ed Stone".

But it wasn't that either. It was that unemployment was 7.9% in 2010, but had fallen to 5.6% in 2015, and the people who got those jobs switched their vote to Tories in gratitude.

Similarly, Theresa May lost a 20-point lead in 2017 over money; lots of middle aged people saw their inheritances evaporating to pay for their parent's care homes.

The election will be decided on money and what is in the manifestos. Unemployment is 4.3%, inflation is 2.3%. These are good stats.

Meanwhile Sunak did score one strategic victory: he wrong-footed Reform, who were not prepared and who had to release a statement saying Nigel Farage would not be standing for election.