Here is how voters have reacted to the debates and manifestos

We've now had the manifestos of all the parties standing in the election. We've also had one head-to-head debate between Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer on ITV, an interview session with both on Sky where they were quizzed by both the interviewer and audience, and two 7-way debates which also featured the smaller parties.

Here is how the polling has responded:

source

(Note, YouGov had a methodology change, but that was before the debates started and manifestos were released).

What we can see is a clear trend with Labour and Conservatives both losing ground, and Reform and the LibDems both gaining ground.

Conservatives have gone from about 21% at the start of June to 17% now. Some voters who had been hoping to see them promise to leave the ECHR, were disappointed and ditched them for Reform who are promising that.

Labour has had an even steeper decline, going from 46% at the start of June to 37% now. Some people who were hoping to see a pro-EU stance are disapointed and have switched to the LibDems.

Then there are the myriad of independents contesting various seats, whose support is likely not being picked up by the polls.

There are still another three weeks of this election to go!

My feeling is that if Labour slip below 35%, we are in hung parliament territory, with regional contests deciding it. The North of England will vote dfferently to the south, and it's on a knife-edge as to whether Labour can defeat the SNP in Scotland.