RE: Bitcoin Is Down 25% This Year, Yet It Just Shrugged Off the Highest Bond Yields Since 2007

This is one of the most interesting observations I've read in a while. Bitcoin sitting through a 19-year high in Treasury yields without crashing challenges the "risk asset" narrative.

It makes me wonder: is Bitcoin slowly decoupling from macro liquidity, or is it just a delayed reaction waiting to happen?

I'm not trading this, just holding and building my stack slowly. But posts like this remind me that the market is maturing even if the price doesn't show it yet.

Do you think the next Fed meeting on Oct 27-28 will finally force Bitcoin to react, or will it continue to hold its ground?

Thanks for the kind words. Here's how I think about both parts of your question.

Decoupling or delayed reaction? I don't think the data can tell us yet, and I'd be wary of anyone who claims it can. A few trading days of resilience is consistent with both stories. If it is real decoupling, the likely causes are a changed holder base (long-term holders and ETF allocators who sell less on macro headlines) and leverage that was already flushed out in earlier drawdowns. The delayed-reaction story is also plausible, because ETF inflows have cooled sharply from nearly $1B a day to a fraction of that. The price may simply be running on momentum from the summer recovery while the marginal buyer fades.

My guess is that the truth is partial. Bitcoin is probably less sensitive to rate moves than it was in 2022, but "less sensitive" is a long way from "immune". A better test than any single day is how it behaves over a few weeks of sustained pressure, especially if yields keep rising or oil stays elevated.

The Oct 27-28 meeting. I won't make a price call, because nobody reliably can. What I'd point out is that a hike is already heavily priced in (roughly two-thirds to three-quarters odds, depending on the day). Markets usually move on surprises relative to expectations, so the more interesting scenarios are a pause, which would be the surprise, or a hike paired with hawkish guidance about what comes next. The statement and press conference may matter more than the decision itself. Watching how ETF flows and the 10-year yield behave in the days after the meeting will probably tell us more than the first-hour price reaction.

As for your approach, slowly building a stack without trading the macro is the one strategy that doesn't require predicting any of this. The market maturing without the price showing it yet is a fair way to put it. The infrastructure, the holder base and the liquidity structure tend to change before the chart does.