Are We Approaching the Bitcoin Cycle Top? ✍️

Good evening to all my friends. I hope you all are doing well. I am having a fantastic day. Let's talk about crypto market. In today’s post, I want to break down some key on-chain data that suggests we might be entering the final phase of this crypto bull cycle. If you remember, I mentioned back in early July that this month could mark the beginning of the last phase of the market cycle and since then, Bitcoin has surged from around $16,000 to $123,000, while Ethereum moved from $300 to over $3,900. Historically, around 150 days after July, the market tends to reach its cycle top, and that time frame now points to October–November 2025. On-chain data like exchange inflows, whale activity, realized cap, and miner behavior all give us important clues. Right now, whales have started depositing Bitcoin to exchanges again a signal we've seen before past market tops. However, realized cap is still rising, meaning whales haven’t begun booking profits just yet. But the setup is starting to look similar to previous cycle tops.

I’m also noticing that retail investor activity is still relatively low and without retail participation, whales can’t exit easily. Ethereum has faced rejection from the $4,000 zone three times already in the past two years, but this time, institutional holdings are at their highest ever, which is a good sign. On the other hand, miner positioning data shows that miners haven’t started heavy selling yet but if MPI spikes, it could confirm the cycle top is near. Another red flag is that although Bitcoin is at its all-time highs, exchange withdrawals are low meaning investors are not moving their coins to cold storage, which usually shows confidence. All these indicators, combined with upcoming Fed meetings and possible rate cuts in the next 3–4 months, suggest that we’re in a highly critical phase. So I’ll be watching closely, and I recommend staying alert this could be the final leg of the bull cycle. That's it for today. Thanks & have a good day!!

@abfarhan