Happy Monday to all, let’s dive right into the most important Market Musings. We see that Bitcoin is trading solidly in the high $60,000s, but Hive is unfortunately going in a very different direction. The price of Hive seems to be heading for new lows, and the gap between Bitcoin and Hive has never been bigger. For anyone who thinks a little, this stark contrast will raise questions about the future of Hive. When is it time for Hive to critically examine its strategy and spending? And when will the structurally enormously high spending on the DHF, especially on Valueplan, be examined?

Pressure on the Hive Price

We all know what the DHF is, and what it does, right? I won’t go into it in detail, because that’s not what these musings are for at all. But we do know that the DHF pays for Financial support for projects that benefit the Hive ecosystem. Very nice, and to a certain extent also necessary. However, the significant selling pressure from HBD to fund the DHF is putting pressure on the value of Hive itself. This means that every Hive owner is indirectly seeing a portion of their investment diminished by this continued spending on the DHF. Is this justified? And can we expect a turnaround?

“I came for the money and stayed for the community” may be a common phrase, but come on… a community can’t compensate for lost value. For many, the lost value is not directly measurable, but for others, it’s hundreds to thousands of dollars in lost value. The outlook for Hive is now more important than ever. At the moment, it’s safe to say that things aren’t looking particularly bright. Inflation is set to hit double-digit rates by 2024, and Hive’s most heavily funded marketing project, Valueplan, has yet to generate the awareness and investment we need and expect.

Jackpot

Since these Market Musings are not meant to be all bad news, but merely a reflection of what has caught my attention in the week leading up to writing this, I will quickly move on to other news. And fortunately, there is also some light news from the crypto world that made me smile this week. A man who had lost his Bitcoin wallet for eleven years finally regained access to his lost wealth this week. With a whopping 43.6 BTC in his wallet, almost $3 million, he has found the jackpot. Stories like this are a reminder of the value that Bitcoin has built up over the years, despite the ups and downs of the market. This man sees dreams come true. Let's hope that he does not lose his newfound wealth again this time.

Turkey Chooses Crypto

For years, Turkey has been struggling with very high inflation, and that now seems to be a reason for many people not to even want to invest in real estate anymore. They have become so accustomed to the high inflation of the Turkish Lira that they now welcome the volatility of crypto and prefer it over investing in real estate. Now I think I understand this attitude. If you buy real estate now and the Turkish government eventually manages to get inflation under control, there is a chance that your house will decrease in value. And not only that, but Erdogan has finally agreed to combat inflation by raising interest rates. For years, it has been stubbornly thought that inflation should be combated by lowering interest rates. Investing in real estate now can therefore ensure that you will have problems in the future. Crypto may be volatile, but the chance that it will rise is greater here than with an investment in real estate in Turkey at the moment. Will that also have an effect on the crypto market in general? I dare not say, but I certainly found it special to read.

US Elections

As US Election Day approaches, and it will soon be known whether Trump or Harris will be sworn in as the new US president in January, it is interesting to see what this could mean for the crypto market.

Many crypto enthusiasts seem to have a preference for Donald Trump because he has changed from a crypto opponent to an absolute proponent of crypto in the past four years. Some of Trump's plans for crypto are appealing to hear, but other plans are practically impossible and even seem to indicate that Trump does not seem to understand what crypto is, and in particular that he does not understand the property of DECENTRALIZATION at all.

Let's take a look at some of Trump's plans.

• Fire Gary Gensler
• Block CBDC
• US as the only country where Bitcoin is mined
• US to keep all Bitcoin to pay off national debt
• Legally established rights for crypto owners
• Crypto advisory board for clear rules
  
  

Although the firing of Gary Gensler may be welcomed by many people in the crypto world, this is not as simple as it seems. As with any firing, there must be a very good reason to carry it out. Even Donald Trump cannot simply ignore that. So the chance that Gary Gensler will have to step down earlier is small. It is more likely that he can serve his full term.

Blocking the CBDC seems like a good thing to me, but here too Donald Trump is not the only one who decides on this. So that also remains to be seen whether he will succeed.

Only mining Bitcoin in the US? Hmmm, that sounds very special. And it is completely at odds with the decentralized nature of Bitcoin. It would give the US great power over Bitcoin, undermine the ideology of crypto ... and also pose a very big security risk to Bitcoin and crypto in general. In short, a very bad plan!

The US keeping all its current Bitcoin to reduce the rising national debt. It sounds nice and could be a good idea. At least if you don't forget that the majority of this Bitcoin was seized in fraud cases and belongs to the victims of these crimes. This plan may also be a bit too complex to just carry out.

The last two plans also require many more people, and these two plans will not just happen. Perhaps four years is a bit too short for this. If Trump is elected, it will be very exciting to see whether he can keep his promises.

If Harris becomes president, I am especially curious whether she will continue with the policy that was implemented under Biden or whether she secretly has a different view of crypto. We will have to wait and see, but for now, Bitcoin is in a reasonably good position to take off right after the elections.

Contrasts

And it is precisely seeing that Bitcoin is in a reasonably good position, and Bitcoin is certainly not the only one, that makes it painfully clear that Hive is lagging, and perhaps needs a different approach. In my opinion, and I can't imagine that I am the only one, the future vision and growth of Hive is becoming an urgent issue. If there is no improvement in the short term, a change of course in the approach is necessary to ensure the viability of Hive. Only with concrete actions can Hive fight against loss of value and hopefully strengthen its position in an increasingly competitive crypto world.