What the f... ?

Have I seriously been wrong for almost 6 months? I keep saying that we are still being hit hard by the bear market, and now I suddenly read that according to Arthur Hayes we have been in a bull market since March!

This Arthur is no stranger to crypto, he is the co-founder and former CEO of BitMEX. As such, you can technically expect him to have some insight into the market. So is it possible that he is right? We are already unknowingly in a bull market and are only experiencing the bumps on the way to a new top. And no, that top does not always have to be higher than the previous one. Given the macroeconomic conditions, I wouldn't count on that too much for the time being.

If you have had any doubts about the exact moment when the bull market started, Arthur is happy to explain it. According to him, the crypto bull market started when Silicon Valley Bank collapsed. So you can see that the link between de-banking and crypto is very strong. So the banking crisis was certainly good for something.

Now we have to wait and see until the market actually reacts bullishly. Although that is probably being worked on as well. And none other than Joe Biden is doing a good job of that. Due to America's increasing national debt, more and more dollars are needed to continue financing this national debt. Unfortunately, that also undermines the value of the dollar. But that is precisely good news for crypto (particularly Bitcoin). The high inflation, the rising national debt and therefore the falling dollar make people more likely to want to use Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation.

Even Google?

And who knows, maybe even Google will offer a little helping hand. They have updated and clarified their advertising policy. Previously, crypto companies were only allowed to advertise via Google to a very limited extent. Google allows ads promoting hardware wallets that are designed to hold the private keys of cryptocurrencies, NFTS, or other crypto-based assets. This policy has now received an update, which means more crypto advertisements are allowed through Google. It may be a small thing, but in the end, everything helps to get back to the flow of the bull market. And who knows, it could even help the market behave bullish again so that everyone can see it in the rising prices.

If you had any doubts, I'm by no means convinced about a bull market!

But no matter how positive this may all sound, I must warn you that my feelings say something completely different. And if it were just my feeling, then it would be one more thing. After all, I am not a technical analyst, I am far from a pro-trader. In fact, I don't actually trade. I'm just someone trying to get some crypto and make some money from it. No, I don't like to sell at the bottom, but that's the problem. I guess we haven't seen the bottom yet. For this, I only have to look at the conditions in the whole world around me. The FED and the ECB keep raising interest rates, economies that are going into recessions, and inflation that cannot be controlled. Rising costs of living automatically mean that there is less money left for people to invest. There is less money in circulation, and if there is less in circulation and less to invest, how is crypto going to make its next moonshot? This does not only apply to crypto, the stock market will also probably experience the same problem. The government bonds (bonds) suddenly become much more attractive due to the increased interest rate, and attractive bonds attract the little capital that is available to invest away from shares, and certainly from crypto. Crypto is just a small market that still hasn't proven itself for the majority of people. It has way too much risk! Bonds, on the other hand, have little to no risk. Who would have thought a year ago that interest rates would be increased to 5.5%? And there is probably no end in sight yet. There are so many significant problems going on worldwide that I suspect that crypto may face worse times than we thought. And of course, I hope I'm wrong about this.

We'll see...