Splintered Factions
This past weekend I was spending some time reading some posts that various people had recently written about Splinterlands. I took the opportunity to express some of my opinions in the comments of these posts, which isn't that uncommon these days. Love it or hate it, lots of people have lots of opinions about Splinterlands.
What I wasn't expecting was one of the authors (@azircon) to push back and challenge me to write a proper post with some of my thoughts on Splinterlands. Whether you asked for it or not... here we go!
I've mentioned this before, but I have been an investor in Splinterlands fro pretty much the very beginning. Even before I really knew what blockchain was and NFTs weren't the buzzword that they are today, I created my kickstarter account and threw $50 to $100 at one of the early supporter bundles.
From there it was a virtual thrill ride watching new cards become available, and changes to the game that made it more fair and enjoyable over all.
Until it wasn't.
At a top level, I think my personal issues can be broken down into a handful of reasons. These might resonate with some of you, and some may not. While I was doing a bit of research for this post, I actually debunked at least one of my misconeptions about the game.
- The overall market is depressed
- Old cards have no value
- Past budget issues by the team are concerning
- The delay of land lost a lot of people
- Things are too complex
- Bots?
- Final Thoughts
The overall market is depressed
I think this is probably one of the biggest factors and I think what is most frustrating about it is there is nothing we can do about it. In turn, there probably isn't much the team can do about it. After watching deck values top the six figure mark, it's just human nature to be depressed seeing your valued struggle to reach four or five figures. I don't really fault the team for this, but I do blame them and link this to another reason I will cover in my final thoughts.
Old cards have no value
While some might argue this isn't true due to cards being allowed to be locked on land, I feel like there should be a bigger multiplier added to those cards to make them more desirable to people. Personally, I am sitting on a stack of Rift Watchers packs that apparently nobody wants to buy. I'm not willing to give them away for free either.
My initial argument was that the team maybe released too many packs too quickly, but I did a little research and from the time Hearthstone launched in 2014 something like 25 major expansions have been released along with several smaller ones.
When you compare that to Splinterlands, it actually doesn't look as bad for our favorite on chain game. I'm willing to admit I was wrong that they released too many expansions too quickly, but I think we can all agree they did have some issues with how many packs in each expansion they created. I also think they should consider adding a multiplier to some of those alpha, beta, and chaos cards for land. At least more than there currently is.
Past budget issues by the team are conerning
I'm not going to dig into this one too much, but the mismanagement of funds is concerning. While those issues have supposedly been resolved, it's still kind of the elephant in the room.
The delay of lands lost a lot of people
This is one of the big ones. I understand it takes time to create things, but the long bear market in hand with the previous topic cost the team a lot of momentum when it comes to lands. I know a lot of people were super excited and they dumped a ton of money into lands. Then they waited, and waited, and waited. Then we got sort of lands, but not really lands. Then we got lands, but not really what lands is ultimately going to be. The problem is by the time they started releasing lands people had already checked out. Then they made it a complex system with a target that keeps moving, and it's easy to understand why people are ready to be done.
Things are too complex
While it's cool that they come up with new rule sets and are adding all of this stuff to lands, I think it has become overall too complex for the casual player. Maybe complex isn't the right word. I just think like a lot of games these days, you have to put a lot of capital in to actually make it worth playing. Which I will talk about more in my final thoughts.
Bots
I'm not going to dig into this one too much. It's an age old debate and for some people it is a deal breaker when it comes to the game. Others embrace them and use them appropriately, while others use them and abuse them. I don't have any solutions for this one. For me it isn't a deal breaker, but like a lot of people I am half checked out anyway. I have never been good at the strategy side of things. I do well in Guild Brawls, but that's about it.
Final Thoughts
Ultimately, I think the biggest issue with Splinterlands goes back to the long time players and how the game was sold to them. It's one thing when the game is just a game and if you make a bit of money on it, then that is cool. However, for the people who have been in it since the beginning, Splinterlands wasn't just advertised as a game. It was sold as an investment. One that would ultimately (and for a while it was) be something that could bring you a profit.
For people joining now, they likely have a more optimistic and less jaded view of the game, but for the OG players... I think we were sold a lie. At the very least sold a dream that turned into a nightmare.
I could look past a lot of this if perhaps some life was brought back to the rental market. Like the game itself, everyone probably has an opinion on that (bots ruined it, etc), but something needs to change.
I can tell you right now, if the price of HIVE ever goes back up, I know at least 10 users who are planning on liquidating their considerable Splinterlands collection. Many already have. If the team doesn't make some changes to bring more value to those assets, I fear it could be the end for the game.
Afterword
In closing, I will fully admit I haven't kept up with every aspect of the game. I account that partially to it becoming too complex, but also to the fact that my investment feels beyond recovery.
If I got any of the facts wrong above, please feel free to correct me. If you simply disagree with my opinion, you can try to correct me, but I might not listen! :)
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This is the only point that is incorrect. You have indicated that yourself. If you list those cards in the screenshot at the market price they will get scooped up instantly. And I don’t think you have paid top dollar for those cards.
Regarding riftwatchers; you should open the packs and sell the cards, it will be easier. Yes they will sell.
Also, one comment and please don’t take it as a judgement, if your goal is to just sell assets then it is rather hard to entertain yourself in a bear market. We play the game to entertain ourselves.
Thanks for writing. I appreciate this.
Okay, that's a fair point. I guess I should have said that the old cards haven't retained their value. I'm not really in the mood to do all the math, but I would guess that while everything has dropped in value, the older cards have likely dropped further in value. For example. I have a Byzantine Kitty that I probably could have gotten a fair price for at the height of the bull. However now the value is maybe $100. I'm sure it would sell at that price, but I think because it is an older card the value is even less. My viewpoint is the value of cards across the board may have dropped 50 to 70 percent simply due to the long bear market but I feel like older cards have dropped an additional 10 to 20 percent beyond that due to their not being as much of a use case.
I'll have to look into the packs. I've got about 100 of them. I just can't bring myself to take that loss.
No judgement at all. Like I said, I think the way they sold it to early investors was wrong. I still enjoy playing parts of the game, and people who came to Splinterlands with that in mind are likely happy. Plus they might earn a bit on top, so they are likely more than happy. However, we were sold this as a game and an investment. The investment piece hasn't really panned out, so it's only natural we would be disappointed. Thankfully, they have backed off that narrative, but it doesn't make it any easier for folks like me, or some of the other people who were heavily invested that I know have gotten completely out now.
People get in and out of investments, that’s normal. There was a time Aggy pushed a lot of packs, CL packs. That was the only practice that was wrong and we are still paying for that mistake. But notice, he is not CEO anymore. In fact other than his own assets in game, he is not really involved. Which is a good thing and welcoming thing.
We are the new management with the SPS-DAO and we have lot of control in the game now. We have steadied the ship and making great progress.
I have started the game about the same time as you in 2018. I am happy with my investment.
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I see CHAOS legion and its large set is routinely brought up in such posts about Splinterlands. I spent many hours in the Splinterlands discord before/ after and leading up to the sale of the CHAOS set. I thought this post a good place as any to share some lost facts. The initial supply of CHAOS was a concern at the time of announcement but not in the way most tell the story now. There was very much a large group of players/ investors worried that CHAOS was going to sell out within 15/ 30 minutes, 1 hour or a few days, ect. There was also this thickness in the air of what if it doesn't and some were on that side of the coin. It was a crazy time for NFT's and Splinterlands. Markets were red hot and then they weren't. Chaos is a product of bad timing. It came at a time Splinterlands was doing very well and also has the unfortunate task of being at the front of a bear market. Players were heavily in favor for steep pack discounts during the sale of CHAOS and the Splinterlands team gave us what we asked for. The narrative that Splinterlands simply infused the market with cheap oversaturated packs is false.
Further considerations:
CHAOS (not by design but by default) filled a void that was needed to be filled. From time to time I see post detailing cards are too expensive. Large land owners in particular have this narrative. In-fact its a narrative I seen throughout Splinterlands existence regardless of card values. CHAOS being "overprinted" puts a ton of cards that have a 1X boost on land on the market for discounted prices. We can't have it both ways. We either want cards to have value or we want cheap cards for land (ect.). Keep in-mind the cheaper it is to mine assets the less valuable those mined assets will be. The cards are our miners for everything else.
I still stand by most of my points. I think Splinterlands has fallen into the same trap that HIVE did. You tell people to come for the money and they are going to be disappointed. You tell them to come for the game or the community and the money is just a bonus.
A fair point. The ROI at one point was insane. I think allot got spoiled early on and those early expectations were hit hard with the reality of sustainability once the overall cryptocurrency market crashed in 2021. However that market crash wasn't the fault of Splinterlands and was going to happen at one point or another.
I don't recall Splinterlands ever just being advertised as a come here for the profits type deal. More of a "come own your own assets and sell them when you are done with the game" type of deal. Of course it was the profits that made the whole thing explode when it did. There was certainly some "come here for the profits" lingering in the mix but that is to be expected when profits are being made.
My comment was more to share some further insights about how CHAOS supply came about. Hopefully it helps debunk the false narrative that Splinterlands pushed CHAOS large set on everyone. The community asked for deals on packs and very loudly so and we got them. Thanks for putting your thoughts out there.
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Yeah the complexity has risen a lot - another pressure to keep playing, and keep up with the new cards and abilities of which there are many.
I'm definitely no OG and yet I had many disappointments - mostly on the value side. The fun-side has been holding up pretty nicely, as long as I can afford it in both money and time. So, I decided to only see it as a game, a hobby that I sunk quite a bit of money into.
Yeah, I think if you look at it through the right lens, it is probably a bit disappointing. I am glad they started to give you more time to pick a team after they increased the variables. I was always scrambling to filter through all my cards...
The perks of not having that many cards... But with that new ruleset, shapeshift for all, it can become quite the mess. All available splinters at once... Especially in Wild, that's overkill. My browser doesn't even have enough RAM appointed to it to display it all :-D
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It was the complex for me. I was initially planning to get into splinterlands. Still thinking of joining tbh, but I'm not really the best with RPG card games and sometimes it just feels overwhelming when I look through the YouTube videos and some posts here.
I do hope they'll be able to improve some more and maybe I'll eventually understand it.
I can understand and appreciate that. As I said, I am not that great with the strategy. It always seems like I have the perfect team lined up, and then I get decimated.
😂😂
Check out campaign/frontier mode.
It limits the cards needed for battle to the foundation set.
Free to play.
Edit:
I got dropped the below card in a Frontier draw.
I earned the tickets playing in Frontier Bronze league.
A card worth $8.50 using cards attained for free in campaign mode.
Spellbook is required to participate in draws.
Ohhh, I'll check it out...
Thanks
I agree with your thoughts on the mistakes the team made. I think it started with overprinting of CL sets then there was Soul Keep and other things players spent money on. However, the team seems to have acknowledged these and are on track to correcting past mistakes. They made wonderful upgrades these year including the CA set, free to play mode and now avatars & exemplars. Given time, I think Splinterlands will recapture its old glory.
I hope you are right. Like I said, I haven't really kept up with things because they kind of lost me after the dumpster fire days. I think a lot of people feel that way sadly. I think trying to get those people back would go a long way because right now they are just waiting to dump.
Big mistakes were made starting with Chaos when way too many packs were produced. Money management is a common issue in start ups, and they are no exception. They receive a lot of DHF funds to help stay afloat and their future still looks questionable to me personally. I only play in brawls now, as things have become complicated that I don't have time to keep up with the new stuff to be honest.
I do credit them for introducing me to Hive, had it not been for them I never would have landed here. I honestly hope they manage to succeed in the future, but they need to attract a lot of new players which is a hard thing to do when the market is down.
Yeah, I think how they do when/if the markets go back up will be the real test. We have only seen the highs and the lows, we haven't really had a chance to see what a full cycle could be like. Then again, we might never see a normal cycle again, so who knows.
I find this interesting and I think it is a bit naive of anyone thinking they are buying into any blockchain activity as an investment, to me they are all high %age risk gambles.
A shame you are so jaded on it. I did start Splinterlands when I joined Hive four and a bit years ago but was not willing to put in the funds to just play the game let alone make a profit.
I do feel for it and being such a huge part of Hive. I really have no idea what the future of Hive brings but I hope your Splinterlands experience takes an upswing.
Thanks, I appreciate that. Perhaps I was a bit naive, but I guess I wasn't the only one...
Unfortunately I knew people who took out new credit cards to buy NFTs in other guaranteed to make you money games as they were pure investments, in fact a lot of people told me I was out of order for warning them. Well sad to say, things go tits up, but I never did say told you so. Life though, it's a gamble and trying things makes it interesting.
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