DUO Guest Author @thelastdash with Do You Still Believe in Alt Season Cycles? - MOST MEANINGFUL COMMENT WINS DUO!
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The crypto world is fond of its cycles and trends, but 2025 is breaking all our assumptions regarding alt seasons. If you have been waiting for that legendary moment when your altcoins bags take off to the moon, then this reality check is for you.
Gone are the times of 2021 when parabolic Bitcoin action triggered an explosive alt season. It's now June 2025 and Bitcoin recently reached an all time highs while altcoins are muted. The closest we got to an alt season was a brief flash in December last year limited to AI tokens and Agent AI projects.
What is different this time? Bitcoin’s journey has been a steady climb not a moonshot. It’s reached new highs but we are not seeing that face-melting parabolic action that historically triggered alt seasons. Instead institutional money is raising the floor.
The sorcery sauce that fueled previous alt seasons to be so blowout is missing. Remember what triggered the previous cycle? We had governments printing money like it was going out of style, stimulus checks spent like crazy and locked-down retail investors dumping their spare cash on dog coins and jpegs. That combination of speculation and excess liquidity just does not exist in 2025.
Today's world is not like it was back in 2021. Burned retail investors the last time around are not running back. New would-be investors are dealing with unemployment, inflation fears and economic uncertainty. The unpleasant reality is that alt seasons depend on new money and loose monetary policy more than trends.
And then there is the institutional angle. Large Bitcoin holders such as Michael Saylor, the US Government, El Salvador and BlackRock are not going to trade their Bitcoin for altcoins. They are playing the long Bitcoin game not speculative alt plays.
Recent crypto corruption scandals didn't help anything. They have shaken consumer confidence and pushed any potential alt season further back into the horizon. Trust needs to exist in the market for it to grow and restoring it is a slow process.
The traditional definition of alt season might have to be completely reworked. Markets adapt, people move on and economic conditions change. Without the unique mix of excess liquidity, retail FOMO and reckless speculation behind past cycles, expecting the same dynamics to happen might be wishful thinking. Crypto investors need to adapt or get left behind. The loose money from arbitrary altcoin pumps might be in the past, and it's been substituted with an increasingly institutional driven market driven by Bitcoin. It's not negative news it's just different and different requires new strategies.
The crypto market is evolving and maybe it's time we evolve our approach to market cycles too. The alt seasons we experienced before might be behind us but markets have a tendency to open up new fronts for those who are willing to adapt.
Holding on to old cycle dogma might be waiting for a train that has changed its route. Clever investors are already learning to go with the times.
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Although I'd like the alt season to show up, I don't really mind.
It's been said for years that Bitcoin is the only crypto the will lead the race.
Basically all other coins and tokens have tokenomics that are set to doom them.
While I see what is meant by this, I disagree as I believe some crypto will stand the test of time. But that's a topic for another time 😃
Evolution is constant and if we adapt this adaptive mentality we can recognise that there are several tokens and cryptocurrencies that have been sustainable over time and ours is sure to be one of them.
Are there plans to expand to other chains? 😁
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The crypto landscape has changed dramatically. The old alt seasons were based on far fewer different coins. Just look how many coins there are now compared to 2021... There is always an alt season you just need to look at the markets more closely. They all can't go up.
Pump fun and the likes of it ruined it
Yes that as well
I think this is one of the ways in which they can also manipulate and control the market price as we know that most of these cryptocurrencies base their value around the value of bitcoin.
Been in crypto since februari 2017. Long enough to stop predicting the price movements of the market as I realize the prize can be easily determined by large holders based on their strategy.
If they choice to start another alt season in order to get more btc they will. What changed is the government regulation and tax rules. Which makes the sheeps follow less easily. Btc being a steady grow this time? Don’t know - mostly trading sideways. Momemtum from Trumps election win was lost by the global instability he caused right afterwards.
We know that you are one of the biggest investors today and that your knowledge on the subject is quite extensive yet it is undeniable that if they want an increase in the field, they will do it!
Tnx for the kind words. But honesty … I am such a small fish , I know nothing - big players decide we just float on the waves they cause :)
I have a similar opinion as @caspermoeller89. Every cycle they talk about the alt coins and that most time they all follow bitcoin. Every cycle there are new alt and meme coins and while many of them will die, there are a few good ones who will survive and survives also last cycle. Look at Dash, Monero, Litecoin, Cardano etc
@thelastdash When we talk about the old dogma of the cycle we always refer to the assumption that markets will follow historical patterns which are predictable. But we know that the reality today is that financial markets are influenced by a wide range of dynamic factors including rapid technological advances, global political and economic changes, and many unexpected developments.
Thanks for being part of the Guest Author.
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