The king of gold has done it again. The price of gold has experienced a remarkable rise, reaching new all-time highs and consolidating its position as a safe haven in times of economic volatility. According to market data, spot gold closed on Monday, September 2, at $3,527.53 per troy ounce, an increase of 1.46% compared to the previous day. This increase is part of a weekly rally that has propelled the precious metal above $3,500, surpassing 4.54% in the last month and an impressive 41.48% year-over-year.
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The factors behind this rise are multifaceted. First, expectations of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve have weakened the dollar, making gold more attractive to international investors. Dovish remarks by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell in Jackson Hole have fueled these speculations, with CME FedWatch projections indicating a high probability of rate cuts in September.
Furthermore, geopolitical tensions, such as the conflict in Ukraine and the escalation in the Middle East between Israel and Iran, have increased demand for safe assets. Uncertainty over trade tariffs imposed by President Trump, along with legal challenges to his policies, has generated risk aversion in the markets. Another key driver is demand from central banks. China has resumed its purchases of gold reserves, adding 13 tons in the first quarter, while Poland leads with an additional 49 tons.
The World Gold Council reports net purchases of 20 tons in May alone, despite high prices. Flows into gold ETFs reached $38 billion in the first half of the year, with record inflows in North America and Asia. In India, festive demand and a weakened rupee have lifted local premiums, contributing to the rally. Analysts such as J.P. Morgan forecast gold to average $3,675 per ounce in the fourth quarter of 2025, with the potential to reach $4,000 in 2026, driven by quarterly demand of 710 tonnes.
However, risks such as a stronger US economy or conflict resolution could temper the gains, although the consensus is bullish. This week highlights gold's resilience in an environment of stagflation and geoeconomic tensions. For investors, it represents an opportunity, but with expected volatility due to economic data such as US employment and global PMIs.
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