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RE: SEED Holdings report #19 - Extended review of all assets
it depends.
The vouchers analogy doesn't fit IMO what HBD is. because it's more of a ticket for allowing to buy. Itself it has no value, only a market-driven one. HBD has a natural value of 1$ worth of hive.
I remember also times SBD was traded for 0,6$. That was the other extreme.
To LUNA, like I told HBD has a positive and negative catalyst.
If we all want to make a quick $ and let the chain in the worst case burn, that is the way we can go.
If LUNA would lose 90% in value in a short time period, I would bet the chain is gone.
I would like to see this first. But it depends on what we want. Fast $ in bullrun, let's burn as much hive as we can and print HBD.
The catalyst is exponential.
But also in a negative way. we had 20%+ inflation in 2018/2019.
This could be also 200% if the market shift and the attention move away.
We don't have a stable social fundament. Only 10k-15k using the social features.
I also would expect, our builder would ALL leave the chain if we have 200%+ inflation. This is what heavy market swings can do.
But as I told, it depends. On timeframe and what the goal is.
And my bet is, we see hive again under 1$. Sure many will disagree, but that's what I think. It doesn't mean hive is bad or something.
Some sidenote: Closer peg = most dangerous that could happen.
if we are at 30% print limit, or 29%, and we loss 50% in value.
From 1 day to another, HBD is worth only 50% in Hive.
That sounds to me not stable. That's, why I think being careful, is better.
I don't know how luna handles this.
If there is no haircut, I think the chain will die in bear.
That is no longer an issue with the stabilizer in place. Also, if we remove the 3.5 day conversion mechanism, it will allow for more arbitrage opportunities which is needed to hold a peg. Those looking to scalp a couple percent will not risk it for 3.5 day wait.
How would we have a 200% inflation? I am not following how that is even possible.
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but sir, the vouchers are trading at 2,7$ on the open market! Ofc not the same. but I see that you got the point (u already know).
That was in the bear market, after like 6-8 months of 'overprinting' HBD without a 'higher price supression tool'.
In that case, STEEM paid the 'hangover' of SBD in the form of increased inflation (from 7-8% up to 20% at times). As you know we needed 2-3 years to recover from that.
IMHO I'm HIVE survived that phase as a chain, then it's almost immortal. Think about it! How you can kill HIVE? You can't unless you make disappear all the believers (and this applies to any other coin). It's unlikely to happen... because we faced very bad things as a community. As a result, Hive is very resilient.
Is that even possible? If we lose 90% of users we're also done. But even with that new market participants will come sooner or later. I would buy up all the HIVE at 0,0001$, don't you?.
hmmm... how do you quantify that? Let's agree to disagree on that. Because I believe we really have a very interesting fundamental userbase which other projects CAN ONLY DREAM WITH.
If something kills luna, it won't be a 90% depreciation. In any case, would be the exyle of their main developers (all of a sudden). We survived that btw.
Agree.
I disagree. But again it's very difficult to foresee how things will work out ''if...''.
I believe you're underestimating HIVE resiliency.
Everything is working as expected. Nothing less, nothing more.
regards :)
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