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RE: SEED Holdings report #19 - Extended review of all assets
I think you're wrong on a number of things, I'll try to recap a few thoughts of me and let's see If we can learn everyone from the discussion:
Think about 10$ hive for 2 months, how much this would print.
And a year later again 1$ or less?
The problem with HBD in 2018 (well, SBD), wasn't the rapid increase in STEEM's value, the REAL problem was it wasn't expected to see SBD trading at 3-7$ for an extended time period (since the chain didn't have a mechanism to peg the coin on the upside). Today mechanisms on-chain control this.
- The ability to burn HIVE and print HBD.
- Mechanisms like the hbd.stabilizer proposal, which acts as a 'primitive market maker' as I like to call it.
This effect gets amplified if projects/dapps use HBD. P.e. Ragnarok, from Dan, or HE pools, since all of them virtually 'lock' HBD out of circulation.
The problem with HBD is, it is a solid stablecoin. It's not backed by a promise, it's backed by hive.
Wrong. It's exactly as you're saying. Hive itself is 'the promise'. We could all agree to stop calling HBD 'hbd' and call them 'redeemable vouchers for 1$ worth of HIVE'. Think about the VOUCHERS of the Chaos Legion, if that helps.
the interest is given without adding value in exchange.
Also wrong, HBD in savings equal to HIVE out of circulation. Isn't that value?
12% for liquidity provider hive/HBD would be a good thing.
It could be very interesting, but IMHO the risks outweigh the pros for something that 'we already have built'. I would keep these things in L2, which is exactly what Hive Engine is providing.
Luna did the same with a Luna backed stable coin. I would prefer to watch first what happens there ( after a market crash) before we start crazy things here.
It's not enough validation of our idea seeing Luna ranked at #9 with an x57 more market share Vs HIVE?
Terra USD ($UST) has a 9B valuation, HBD mere 24 milion (or x375 less)
We need to print HBD... and the only way is to incentivize people to do so. Like, LOTS of HBD.
More APR on HBD savings => More HBD => Closer peg => More reliable stablecoin (because closer peg) => more market participants => More demand for HBD => Increase of marketcap of HIVE
The barrier for this is the 10% debt limit, increasing it to 30% is a 'good enough' intermediate scenario where we can keep expanding the supply of HBD (and hence HIVE) without compromising on a hyperinflationary black hole.
We could airdrop over 12 months HBD to hivepower stakeholder. So the total amount increase. Because the % would depend on Hive power, everyone should have after the airdrop the same % in total.
We already have this in place, it's called ''posting and curation rewards'', I believe we don't need to overthink excessively things there, but neither to try to introduce innecessary mechanics in place; p.e. 'HBD airdrop to hivepower holders'.
...
Don't you agree? Or I'm missing something.
I like the convertible bond concept. HBD is a convertible bond that can be redeemed for $1 worth of HIVE (for each HBD) in 3 days time.
Couple this with more "sinks", providing more use cases, and we see could see things taking off.
That was why I started to toy around with the idea of Hive Bonds. Get more HBD produced yet feed into the stability of the token. This will help a great deal.
The bottom line is we need 10 billion HBD to be considered a legitimate stablecoin. We are not going to get that from 2.3 million HBD locked into savings at 12%.
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it depends.
The vouchers analogy doesn't fit IMO what HBD is. because it's more of a ticket for allowing to buy. Itself it has no value, only a market-driven one. HBD has a natural value of 1$ worth of hive.
I remember also times SBD was traded for 0,6$. That was the other extreme.
To LUNA, like I told HBD has a positive and negative catalyst.
If we all want to make a quick $ and let the chain in the worst case burn, that is the way we can go.
If LUNA would lose 90% in value in a short time period, I would bet the chain is gone.
I would like to see this first. But it depends on what we want. Fast $ in bullrun, let's burn as much hive as we can and print HBD.
The catalyst is exponential.
But also in a negative way. we had 20%+ inflation in 2018/2019.
This could be also 200% if the market shift and the attention move away.
We don't have a stable social fundament. Only 10k-15k using the social features.
I also would expect, our builder would ALL leave the chain if we have 200%+ inflation. This is what heavy market swings can do.
But as I told, it depends. On timeframe and what the goal is.
And my bet is, we see hive again under 1$. Sure many will disagree, but that's what I think. It doesn't mean hive is bad or something.
Some sidenote: Closer peg = most dangerous that could happen.
if we are at 30% print limit, or 29%, and we loss 50% in value.
From 1 day to another, HBD is worth only 50% in Hive.
That sounds to me not stable. That's, why I think being careful, is better.
I don't know how luna handles this.
If there is no haircut, I think the chain will die in bear.
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