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RE: The first earns it, the second enjoys it and the third destroys it
No, it has nothing to do with policy shocks but the fundamental framework of how an economy works. It is functionally impossible for compounding interest to "beat chaos across the decades". If ever it did the state would be unable to repay its debt obligations causing state debt to go exponential. It is designed not to on purpose. That is the entire point of the central bank interest rate and why it is reassessed on a regular basis.
0.00349005 BEE
sounds like you’re equating compouding in productive businesses with interest on sovereign debt, but those are different engines. Central banks set policy rates to manage inflation and employment, not to cap long run equity cash flows and and reinvested dividends. Private returns can outpace noise for decades even while the state keeps debt stable when growth runs at or above funding costs. Are you saying a persistent equity risk premium cannot exist by design?
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