Lessons from the 2021 Bull Cycle.
The crypto market's dip in September was not unexpected, owing to the fact that it was not as drastic as many had predicted. Over 70%, if not more, expected this month to bleed heavily, and while it has, I believe the overexpectations have served as a cushion or shock absorber, and we are no longer surprised.
However, keep in mind that there are still 13 days left, which is plenty of time for BTC to fall to 50k or even lower. A lot of things are still going to happen, such as the proposed interest rate, some massive selloffs, the possibility that retail will sell off more of their inventory, and the general buzz about who will become President of the United States.
There are many factors to consider as we approach October, but there is still plenty of time before the end of September.
Many people are now counting the days until Q4 and the end of the year, with no plan for what they will do in the meantime. It is fairly typical.
I mean, in 2021, there was so much money in the market that even the worst coin was pumping, and people were tempted to invest in bogus projects while waiting for them to do a potential X100. Most people were gambling because they had so much money to spend.
This Project On Hive
I remember this particular Hive project that launched; they wanted to capitalize on Splinterland's success, and guess what? Everyone participated and spent a lot of money on it.
Some people invested 1000 HBD, while others invested up to 15000 HBD, hoping to multiply or tenfold their money, but this project lacked a solid framework, a backbone, and a plan, but no one noticed because people were making so much money and could afford to take uncalculated profits.
I am not clean; I rode the wave by putting in 100 HBD, but that was the amount I was willing to lose, and I was not greedy. Eventually, we all lost our investments. 90%, if not more, of people lost money, and the number was likely even higher for those who gambled their savings in the hopes of retiring after the 2021 bull run.
Most likely, they did not retire as planned, demonstrating how dangerous the bull market can be. Many people believe that the bear market is bad; however, this is not true. The bear market allows you to function like an ordinary human being. There will be no excessive risk (you cannot afford it), and no irrational decisions.
If that project had launched today, it would most likely have received a lot of downvotes and been kicked off the chain, but it was launched when people were high on the massive profits they were sitting on.
Many people learned the hard way, including the OGs who lost a lot of money.
Amateurs Made Profit
I made a profit as well, but I did not lose my bag because I was greedy; I lost because I did not understand how the market cycle works, which I believe I can forgive myself for.
When the market is rising, people are willing to take risks, but when it falls, they are afraid. Originally, it should have been the other way around, but we are humans, and when it comes to crypto, we often do the opposite.
2025 Bull Cycle
The 2025 bull cycle is almost upon us, and we still have no idea what to expect. I will tell you this: the majority of the dead coins you are holding will moon. Everything you touch will turn into profit, and the majority of your investment decisions will work like magic, resulting in massive figures on your screen. I want you to know that you are not a guru; the market simply pumps anything that comes along when the time is right.
However, I will not say that everything is set in stone. History may not repeat itself, and the chances are slim, but even the smallest odds are still odds. It would be FUD to say there would not be a moon in this market cycle; everything looks terrible at the moment, and most of the time we are just tempted to think like this; it is not FUD; it is just how we think when everything is red and everywhere is bleeding (although the market is green today in some places), so your skepticism is not unfounded.
Nonetheless, if the market goes parabolic, remember that you saw this in 2021 and try to be disciplined; now that you understand how the market works, you can work on your greed. Working on your greed will solve half of your problem, and if you still lose your discipline, remember to write everything down in a note. The market takes more than it gives from those who never learn. Do not invest at the market's peak; most of these projects will not survive the next cycle.
Interested in some more of my works
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Posted Using InLeo Alpha
I didn't take much profits last cycle and that was a mistake. I should have taken some profits in Splinterlands too but I didn't bother. There isn't much we can do about the past but we can get prepared for the next cycle. At the same time, we should just strive to learn from our mistakes.
You're right, I guess you didn't think that it was actually necessary to take profit from your assets on splinterlands, well neither does a lot of people and me too, like you've said, I know we've all learned
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👏 Keep Up the good work on Hive ♦️ 👏
❤️ @bhattg suggested sagarkothari88 to upvote your post ❤️
Thanks
I took too many round trips on projects in 2021 - my biggest lesson learned is to take profits and prepare for a rainy day. We ended up having a rainy 2 years!
Glad to see the reflection and wisdom gained though. I wish you well in the upcoming cycle!
Most people didn't take profit in 2021, I think they felt that the market will last longer than and they have time for their bags to x1000 or something like that.
Just like you, I think I've also learned the importance of taking profit. I wish you well too.
May the 2025 bull run be better than this year! Splinterlands just hasn't turned out well, it's really sad to see and I hope they pull things back together. In those early days though when there was money being made hand over fist the greed must have been insane!
There was a lot of greed in 2021, and people just got way in over their heads. I got into splinterlands when a BCX of djinn Oshannus was 39$
I don't like to think much about 2021, because it reminds me how stupid it was not to take significant profits from projects that were bubbling. Unfortunately, hodlers... hodl, and they need to train themselves to take some profits too.
It wasn't you alone. If I had taken profit, maybe I'd have been buying back now and I wouldn't be so broke and finding it difficult to pay my medical bills. I regret it a lot, and hope I've learned
Let better days return
When all rationality flows out of the window, markets can be unforgiving, especially for us who can't learn the lessons that it teaches. I was a newbie back in 2021 bull cycle, and the lack of experience made me miss out on a lot of opportunities :(
Thank you so much for this eye opening post, I learnt a lot from reading this post.
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