Unless you are new to crypto, you have probably heard a lot of things like
"Alt season will not happen this cycle," or "BTC is king, alts are trash," or "this cycle will never be like the last, do not expect anything," ? and people completely forgot that when COVID struck in 2020, it felt like the apocalypse.
Granted, this cycle has differed from the previous one in a few ways. We are seeing "too slow" or "too fast," and the timing of certain expectations has not matched.
However, BTC unexpectedly hits 89k, setting a new ATH, despite many believing that 100k by the end of the year was impossible due to how slowly things appear to be happening in this cycle. In reality, this is the most FUDish bull cycle we have seen thus far, with people questioning almost everything simply because their alt bag has not pumped.
What is the reason behind this?
The bear cycle was unquestionably one of the worst
We literally started the bear with the US SEC cracking down on fraudulent exchanges, and it all went downhill with FTX and SBF. Most people were unaware that the bull run of 2021 would not end smoothly. BTC was at 18k in 2022, and they said crypto was dead.
It will be difficult to kill crypto, and I doubt the next bear cycle will be as bearish as the last. Why? I believe Gary Gensler will be gone by then, and more cooperative entities will be even more involved in crypto.
Despite all of the complaints that this cycle has not looked anything like the last, we are starting to see some similar behavior that appears to have occurred in Q4 2020. This is that particular period where people are playing the regret games: "oh I wish I had 200$ in BTC now".
They forgot they had the opportunity to do so since the beginning of the year, but they let their FUD get the best of them.
Let us not even talk about the Bitcoin frenzy. The emphasis is now on alts. I believe now is the best time to buy your favorite alt. This is because altcoins do not pump like BTC. Most alts take no more than 8 months to reach their ATH, whereas BTC takes much longer.
Most people sleep on alts, and by the time they wake up, most of the alts they should be holding have reached their ATH and are no longer able to enter.
As I have previously stated, new mistakes will be made in this run, and many others will continue to be poor as a result of their FUD and greed; many will even miss out because they are comparing the timing of the previous cycle to this one.
I read a post where someone talked about hitting one million dollars but not selling, and they are probably now regretting it. Now I understand that many people made this mistake in 2021.
However, another interesting thing I noticed about this person is that they are now selling all of the bag that earned them that million dollars in 2021 to invest in another project, and the most painful part is that they are even selling at a loss. My thoughts are, why not just wait for alt season? Since that bag made you a million dollars in 2021, why not keep Faith instead of dumping it for another project whose outcome you do not know in 2025?
Granted, you may not make a million dollars in the next cycle with the same bag. Or you might even make 2 million, or 500k; whatever it is, you know you have seen this project pump in the past, so why sell it now at its lowest price?
You see, the fear of not making enough profit in 2021 will drive people to make more irrational decisions, which means that people will go through different cycles and continue to make catastrophic mistakes as they try to correct the mistakes of previous cycles.
However, I would avoid talking too much. If my bags were worth a million dollars and I did not sell them when I should, it could leave me scarred for the rest of my life. These opportunities do not come along very often in life, and the regret of killing the golden goose that lays the golden egg can be painful, but you have to hold, have faith, and courage in the midst of FUD.
If cryptocurrency was easy, people like Micheal Saylor would not be considered legends. Anyone can easily borrow money, and buy crypto, provided profit is guaranteed and then you can just pay back the money you loaned, but it's not as logical and straightforward as that.
It is difficult to be 90% down and still hold; many people will lose their minds and sell to avoid losing, even if they can actually hold and come out on top. Crypto is difficult because it requires mental fortitude, and most people who appear to be lucky are not; they are simply mentally strong.
However, it's not completely bad when you're fearful, it's always better to have a plan and follow it, jumping ships when alt seasons is probably weeks to months away is classic panic and this is one mistake that the consequences is not really emphasized upon. Again, do your research and remain strong.
You will not be able to imagine or guess what will happen in Q1, because it will be beyond your wildest expectations. May the grace of the Lord Jesus Christ be with you all.
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I was beginning to think there wouldn't be an alt season, or at least not much of one. It is good to be proven wrong sometimes. So far this cycle is a lot of fun 😊
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Haha, In reality, I believe there will be an alt season, the only thing that's in question is whether we can replicate the degree or how high alt went up last cycle. Still, this could be a stifling factor too.
It's hard not to be entertained! Crypto will always be unpredictable, more now than ever. You could make a million and not sell in time, it would suck, but you have to have a pretty big bag to pull that off. It does feel good to see BTC on the move, with any luck some of our alts will follow suit. Until then we'll just have to hunker down and wait!
Yeah, a million dollars is a lot. I basically think that that person had accumulated that bag over a long period of time and actually it mooned in the 2021 run. It's crazy how many stuffs and project did unbelievable numbers in 2021
Now I've learnt something new, I'm always quick to sell my coins anytime the prices goes higher, i think that's not always the best idea.
I never imagined BTC would hit $80k+ this year.
Next year is the bull run year, so many good things is stipulated to happen to the price of most crypto projects.
I saw the same post and I don't think that person is making an investment decision (at least not a good one), but rather wants his investments to reflect his focus which narrowed over time.
On Twitter, I see people talk about their losses often and it's mostly been about not taking profit when they should have exited, it only proves that exiting requires some skills.
I agree. It requires much more skill than DCAing during the bear market.
If only all our crypto investments are guaranteed, taking loan will be a sure thing and everyone will just be rich overnight.. unfortunately crypto stuff isn't logical and straightforward like you mentioned
holding onto my altcoins and staying strong in this market fluctuations seems like a better option while expecting the bigger pump, hopefully
I think if it was that easy then everyone in crypto will be a millionaire. Unfortunately not everyone will make money with crypto and that's the sad truth.
Congratulations on holding. Hive already did a 60% rise yesterday night, and more will be coming a few months time and the ride will be wild.
It's a weird cycle and I think it was made worst by the elections. Honestly, I don't know what to make of it. I do wonder if we will hit that 100k goal by the end of the year, but I have a feeling that there are people waiting to take profits if it gets close. So I don't think the chances are that great this year.
Let's see how it goes, I think for all our sakes that the alt season outperforms what we have in the previous season, because everyone at this point will do with a very big pump
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Thanks 👍👍👍
I used to think the hardest cycle in the market was the bear market because your bag just keeps going down. But I'm begining to think differently because like you said, the difficulty is knowing and decind deciding when to leave the market. It's very important to have an exit plan before you enter any position so that no matter what happens, you know what you're doing and why. It's easy to have your discipline clowded by euphoria in the market. A well-defined exit strategy will help not to fall into the pitfall of emotion-driven trades.
Haha it seems you've learned a lot in this cycle and to be very honest, I'm happy for you. If I took the time to actually educate myself in the last cycle, I might have been in a better position in this cycle.
I hope above all things that you actually get to make enough profit and then be able to reinvest, God willing.
The next few months will be euphoric and wild.
Thanks for the well wishes, man.
I’m really banking a lot on this cycle. I’m trying my best to maximize my profits whiles also keeping tight risk management to not get burnt chasing big profits.
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Hehehehehe I love how you ended your post😂😂 Truly may the grace of God be with us all.
This was really informative Jose well done.
Thanks, yes that was my parting note for that post, I love to raise "God" awareness sometimes on my posts
The discussion of the article is quite good and I enjoyed reading it.
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most people who appear to be lucky are not; they are simply mentally strong.
Not an easy task when considering bitcoin legends like Michael Saylor. Humans and fear have always result in regrets. Some will enter late and have to hold the bags.
It's true that cryptocurrency investment requires mental strength and resilience.
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