Crypto: Have We Reached Ground Zero Yet?
I used to watch television shows about the Romans, the Korean Goryeon Empire, the Greeks, and Norsemen. These were some of the most tactical people in battle. You see strategies, then counter-strategies, various war inventions, and the sheer genius of mankind.
The Koreans were more brain than brawn, whereas the Romans were a combination of both. The Northmen were mostly brawn, battle, blood, and war, and sometimes tactical genuinety is overshadowed by even greater tactical prowess.
These men lived in a difficult time when there was competition for women, land, power, resources, and wealth. Because resources were scarce back then, people fought at all times to loot themselves. Despite their ingenuity, civilization was still at its lowest point, and the need to outperform one another turned it into a war for survival.
People were basically existing to see another day rather than truly living, but it was not all doom and gloom; they had their moments, and what they had cannot be replicated in today's world.
I remember watching a Roman episode where soldiers would clamp their shields together to avoid arrow attacks while waiting for the right moment to strike. You will hear the commander shouting hold hold hold, and I am not sure if I am correct, but I believe that is where we got the term HODL, which we frequently use when attempting to stay strong during market dips.
Crypto
These are trying times in crypto and to be very honest only the people with the best strategies will come out of the other side. It is the coldest period in crypto.
Many people have spent their money over the years trying to buy the dip, during the halving, and after the halving, but after watching over three crypto cycles, I have concluded that the best time to buy is in the fourth quarter of the year, just before the bull run year.
I am not saying you can not buy over time, but crypto is usually at its lowest price a few months before some coins reach their all-time high, rather than during the early years of the bear market.
Months like September and October are some of the most unbelievable months in crypto, this is because the expectation is not the reality and it just makes sense to fear and panic.
Over the years, the market has recovered when people have given up; these are the times when people lose their guard and withdraw funds from solid projects they believe in in order to chase meme coins that are likely to give them the money they fear they will lose if the bull run does not occur.
I mean, a lot of people can tolerate being in a proper bear market because they understand that it is not yet time. They have the patience and are building, but the year before a bull run is the most difficult, especially for those with smaller portfolios and are solely focused on alternative investments.
This is the year when meme projects make a lot of money, BTC is doing well but alts are slowly crawling, and people will wait indefinitely for a decent jump but will not get it. So it is always the hardest before a proper bull run, and this is primarily due to the mental exhaustion that comes with endless waiting.
In Conclusion
If you have waited until now without withdrawing any funds, I believe you can wait until it is over. From here, alts aren't going to zero if that's what you think. But, if you are thinking about chasing some meme coins, go for it; everyone deserves to win at this point.
I was looking at some of my splinterlands assets, and they have lost over 95% of their value. There are currently no buyers in the market for these cards, but even if there are, I am not going to sell them at a 95% loss; what kind of businessman will I be?
However, they could lose 99% of their profit, so it is best to hold until the first quarter of 2025 before selling them, when the bull market may have inflated their value. My point is that it could suffer a 99% loss before recovering, and seeing it drop so low would tempt anyone to simply count their loss, sell, and move on.
So, it is best for you to hold; there is a chance your assets will lose more value in the coming weeks, hitting ground zero before rebounding.
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I've always thought too that the expectation before a bull run is harder to endure than a bear market, because the mindset is different. You expect prices to go up, not down or sideways, and if they don't, many people start to question their strategies, if there will be a bull market and so on. And the worse mistake is to sell, but some would think of it as a relief, only to be very disappointed with their decision when the run starts and keeps going. Some will re-enter the market at higher prices.
Exactly, now you're thinking the way I was.. It's absolute torture for a lot of people currently. Especially since we have tags like Q4, uptober, and all that. These historical parameters creates certain expectations and when they're not met, it's just sheer frustration from them on.
People might sell and renter. I think it's a trap and many will lose whatever potential profit because of their anxiety
Maybe we'd be better off without them. People need to think for themselves instead of being served patterns. I admit I got pulled into this narrative too, but I also have the power to question and think critically, which many appear to not have lately.
I did that in my first crypto cycle. Never since.
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A big dip usually comes before the big rise. Knowledge is essential for navigating and surviving the world of crypto otherwise one would always be on the losing side. The funny thing? We haven't even seen no bear yet. It's on its way, the biggest bear before the big bull. Yes, it's advisable to hodl and not sell out of fear. But most importantly one should try equipping themselves with all the necessary crypto knowledge to succeed in this space.
Yes, I agree, the big dip is always before the big break
I agree with your outlook. If it has dropped 95%, then it dropping further won't hurt you that much. I guess people might regret after knowing the future, but I do think that some altcoins will go down even further. If it doesn't add much value or get viral, I don't see those altcoins going up.
Yeah, since it's 95% down already, I don't see it hurting to get down to 99%. However, at least there's a consolation in the fact that SPS is still up and doing and I'm happy for this in particular
Greetings @josediccus ,
Well said. There are some good comments in the thread here as well.
I heard it once said like this....just before a coin springs...it crouches like a tiger....perhaps that explains the low price. ^__^
kind Regards,
Bleujay
Well that's a nice analogy for describing the present condition of crypto, I believe so too. I think the next few months will be very wild
I agree, best to just hold on for now and wait for a brighter day in the future. I hope Splinterlands recovers, because we both have a lot invested in there.
For all the years and ingenuity that have passed since the Romans, it's still a fight day by day to survive. It may be overall less violent in most places, but the world is still a tough place to survive!
We've invested time and energy on splinterlands though and it's been rough, although I have enjoyed the game really well, but just seeing the value of my cards plummet has been really saddening, I'll probably exit the game soon enough, I need the money afterall.
Timely
I sold yesterday to wait for a re-entry cos I anticipate we’ll fall back to around 63k to fill the FVG I was telling you about the other time. Maybe this is my sign to get back in so I don’t miss the move I’ve been patient this entire time for.
Well somehow this might be the right time. I didn't know you've been exiting and re-entering as well. Well, I'm not much of a trader and I don't have much money to do so anyway. Goodluck with it, I hope you make profit this coming run
I checked some of my alts today and quickly closed the page due to the dip I saw, hahaha...I even regretted not selling them two weeks ago when they experienced a nice pump
I am wearing patience like this waiting for this Almighty rebounding.. lolz
Well it's that time of the month where everyone is regretting not selling at some point, but it's almost over. October is almost over and let's see what November will bring this time around
Finger crossed
Good morning Joe
Good article! I agree, this is probably to worst of times to exit altcoin positions. Once Bitcoin crosses the 100k level (or even sooner), I believe it will trigger the alt season as money trickles down from Bitcoin. Now the BTC dominance is still too high.
As for memecoins, as crazy as it sounds, I believe memecoins will do really well during the upcoming alt season. They appeal to retail if and when it comes crashing in at some point. I'm holding at least some of top plays in that sector.
You're right, probably when BTC hits 100k maybe alts will begin to move. Generally I think we have to start looking towards Q1 as there time and I think it'll be amazing .
Well some meme coins have some strong community backing it, although it's dump and pump, I think anyone with limited cash wouldn't want to gamble
I agree, 99% of memecoins is a gamble. It's interesting though, some of them survive and become "blue chip" memes like DOGE, PEPE & WIF which aren't going away any time soon. I guess that's the thrill of it - everyone wants to spot that next WIF 😀. Easier said than done though cos there are A LOT to pick from
It seems only bitcoin is not going through these trying times
At the moment, yes.
Thought as much
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Love the intro!
I think employing a fluid and adaptive strategy with crypto gives one a better chance of maximizing their winnings in this cycle, especially knowing that things have changed quite a bit. Patience will always be a timeless principle to follow, reaching ground zero creates an opportunity for a great rebound.