Now Vs Future: Real talk on Splinterlands

The Splinterlands team and community has effed up over and over again because we continue to ignore current problems because we assume they will be fixed in the near future. They never are and we never learn. Let's talk about that.

In mid 2021 there was a rumor that Splinterlands was going to 10x untamed in their next set from 1.5 million packs to 15 million packs. I wrote novels about why that was a bad idea. But the idea people had was that in 6 months, we'd have the player base of millions to soak it up and even that wouldn't be enough. I said then that these are bots and we don't need these cards but I got shouted down.

Instead of playing to the game we had, we tried to predict the future and we lost. This is the pattern that keeps us from thriving.

Post-Expansion Consequences and Denials

After the economy crashed under the set's weight and I came out with solutions to the problem I was met with "bitcoin bear market!", "nobody could have seen it coming!", "we didn't know it was bots!", "one day we'll need all these cards!", "LAND WILL SAVE US!", "New Player Experience Will Save Us!", "The Next Bitcoin Bull Market Will Save Us!".

All of this has proven false. I've been saying it for years and I continue to be right. We need to deal with the problems we have if we want to get to the game we want. We have a glut of card assets. Let's streamline it. We can grow it again later if we need to.

Was it really the bitcoin bear market?

I said then it's not the bear market, it's the oversupply. I pointed to other games like Upland that were riding high for many months after the bear market hit crypto. Of course they then got cocky and oversupplied the market with a string of city releases until they too got crushed. Predictably, we then heard it was because of the bear market and not their fault.

Persistent Misconceptions During the Bear Market

During the bear market I came out and talked about the card glut many times and its always met with "well in 6 months we'll have land" or well the new player experience will bring lots of players and then we'll need those cards so we shouldn't burn them, or my favorite, the bitcoin bull market will come back and the players will flood back in and fix the problem.

The Return of the Bull Market and Its Implications

Well, now the crypto bull market is back and we have land and what we are seeing is that the same players who told me over and over again that lots of cards was a good thing are now leaving for projects that don't have the baggage and glut. Those projects are primed to move because they aren't weighed down by millions of assets no one wants. So Splinterlands players are jumping ship at a faster rate than they were before the bull market started and new players aren't choosing us either. Why would they when its crashing while others are soaring?

A Call for Immediate Action Instead of Deferred Dreams

I've begged and pleaded that we deal with this problem but the answer from everyone is always about the mythical game we might have 6 months from now that could solve the problem if we could only get there.

And I keep saying that it's the problems we refuse to deal with that are preventing us from getting to that game where everything is solved.

This is like running out of gas a mile from a gas station and when someone suggests you walk to the station to get gas you say "why should I walk when I have a car?"

The Reality of New Player Attraction vs. Asset Overload

I love Matt as a leader but the recent mantra of "in 6 months I want to get someone REALLY good to market this game and bring in hundreds of thousands of players" isn't a plan. It's a dream. The new player experience isn't going to create magic and most marketers are so good that they single handedly turn the tides of an entire company. Anyone like that would be able to command unheard of amounts of money for their services.

We have a game with a few thousand players and 150 million cards and we need to deal with that. Forget about marketing. Deal with that and the economy will come roaring back and that will be all the marketing we need.

I would honestly say at this point that a better use of $2 million dollars from the DAO is to buy up all card assets under a certain price so we can breathe again. Every time we get the slightest uptick, it gets smothered by sellers. We shouldn't have so many assets out there that there's always more sellers than buyers.

Strategies for Addressing the Current State of the Game

Let's come up with creative ways to burn cards or get them in use. If we run out and end up with a shortage, great! Bull runs happen when scarcity becomes real and it's not like the team won't sell us more.

Actionable Solutions for the Splinterlands Community

Just so this post has something actionable. Here's a quick list.

Card Graveyard on Land

Burning cards on land that give permanent base PP to the plot up to the max of 100k pp we voted on. Each card is worth 10% of what it would be worth if staked. So a single BCX of a common Chaos Legion card would give 2.5 PP and burning it would give a permanent .25 pp.

Wanna know just how bad our card glut is? Maxing on plot with the card graveyard would require burning 400k BCX of Chaos Legion common cards. That sounds like a lot but you could max 20 plots with just venari heatsmiths!

Burn Events

For some reason Matt opted to put up the new burn event proposal without cards on it. I think Matt saw that we voted the last one down and thought card burning was the problem. I think it was voted down because we expected promo cards as guaranteed rewards for burning our cards. We have the promo cards in the new proposal. Hopefully, Matt changes the event to include cards.

DAO and Match Liquidity

The DAO should run non-earning bots with real cards in modern for match liquidity. The DAO should put in floor bids to buy up modern cards and use those cards to create decks. There need to be 1000 or more bots brought online for match liquidity. That could eat up a lot of cards while solving match liquidity too.

Matt mentioned this is the last town hall as a solution to match liquidity we should consider. I believe this is an incredible solution and it should be done. It will actually make a big dent and it can be unwound if new players come in. The DAO could even make a nice profit by selling back the cards if we ever get new players. Which would be more likely to happen because our economy would be less bogged down and might attract new people.

Expanding Burn Options for Cards

Allow the burning of all cards for glint instead of just the current soul bound reward cards. If you aren't aware, glint will be used in the rewards store for chests so we have more choice over our rewards. We are going to be able to burn the reward cards we don't want for more glint so we can get energy or have a chance at cards we actually need. Why not allow all cards to be burned for this? After all, unlocking soul bound cards will be beneficial for the economy because it burns tons of DEC while all the non-soul bound cards existing is an albatross around our necks. Let's give the option to burn the problem cards too.

Card Burns to Unlock Soul Bound Cards

Allow us to burn 2-5 BCX of a certain rarity to unlock a soul bound card of the same rarity. Let's make soulbound cards deflationary for the card supply instead of something that just minimized damage.

Innovative Approach to New Sets

The next miniset should only be available for a card burn of old cards. I forwarded this proposal for Rift Watchers but people who'd bought a lot of Rift Watchers already felt like it could hurt them. I told them then that RW cards hit their ceiling and were coming down one way or the other so we might as well use it to fix the card supply which would give all cards more value but they disagreed. Yesterday I bought a maxed gold foil septic slime for $23. It was $100 back then for a regular foil. So again, I was right. But the next miniset will have no baggage and should be put out as a card burn right up front.

The Path Forward for Splinterlands

Those are a few ideas. Maybe you have some too? Regardless, we need to deal with the game we have today if we're ever to get the game we want tomorrow. And right now, that means getting out from under this weight and making cards scarce for the current player base so they go up and attract new players (just like the last bull run).

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