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RE: Now Vs Future: Real talk on Splinterlands
That is exactly my issue with Splinterlands, the almost certain drop in card values doesn't even come close to the earnings that compensate for that right now. At the same time, this expectation of actually making a profit can only be achieved by new players acting as exit liquidity. For as far as I know, every Play2Earn game suffers from this one way or another.
If there are crazy high returns (like Splinterlands in the past, Parallel now, Sorare some months back,... ) it helps to drive some adoption but they are simply never sustainable and always are followed by a collapse. If the returns are realistic and more long-term based they are not attractive and too risky for it to be a reason for players to start playing.
In the end, having a realistic stable economy and a game that is actually really fun, shareable/streamable is key along with a continued inflow of new players. All easier said than done.
It sure is a pain to be invested in the game right now, especially with the rental market totally dried up also which was one of the things I kind of counted on.
Yeah, the whole play to earn thing is quite possibly the definition of a ponzi. The concept only works in short bursts unless people want to play the game. Most of the players need to be here for the entertainment value and be willing to pay for it through time or money. If its just about earning for most players, it can't work. That's why I love that Splinterlands has a fun game but its now a game that requires thousands of dollars to actually play it if you want to own your own assets. By all rights, Splinterlands SHOULD be able to grow the economy based on the rental market since players can come in and play at the highest levels for a buck or two per day. Except battle wagons kill that since no new cards are on the rental market. So now they once again have to buy thousands of dollars in Rebellion if they want to compete at the top.
But none of that matters when the story is "Play-to-earn" because it means people are always going to be more in tune with the monetary side than anything else. Whereas other games people would just play even if it cost them a lot of money they'd never recoup, there is now an expectation that Splinterlands is an investment and needs to pay out or its time to go elsewhere whether you like the game or not. And it makes the community unbearably salty even if you do like the game.
We have such a good set up but it always JUST MISSES. I really wish I could get Matt's ear sometimes.