Have You Arrived Too Late at the Crypto Party?

Did You Get into Crypto too Late?

Sometimes, like many people, I ask myself whether I got into crypto "too late." Since I only started in crypto last year (summer of 2021), I have given this a lot of consideration. No one really knows the answer, but my conclusion is that, yes, it is later than I would have preferred, but there is still room for plenty of profit.

Here is what I consider (and this is not financial advice): the current market cap of all of crypto is about 2.5 trillion, depending on the day. The total market cap of all $ in the world is about 100 trillion. That is now. It could go up. It could go down, but I think it is more likely to creep up as the world's population grows, etc.

So, then, the question is, do I believe in crypto? Because, if I do, I believe it will become simpler and more easily adopted by mainstream users (which I do believe will happen). If it does, what could crypto's market cap realistically be?

This is a question better suited to economists than to me, but I could easily envision crypto taking over 1/10 of the total market cap of all finances. Maybe I am wrong, but 1/10 seems plausible. That is 10 trillion dollars today.

That means that, personally, (and, again, not financial advice), I think the crypto sector has room to quadruple. When it does this, some cryptocurrencies will do a lot more than quadruple if they are the "winning technologies" while others will fizzle out.

That is the scary part, to me. It is a gamble. People say to research and only invest in projects you believe in, but the truth is that this gives us a false sense of security.

Why, Harlow?

Unfortunately, history tells us again and again that the best technology does not win. Should it win? In my opinion, of course! However, Betamax was better, and VHS won. Everything was better, and Windows won (and I am not being a jerk -- people literally just accept the fact that computers regularly "crash" as though they have to and it is not due to poor design and execution, but... I came to talk about crypto...)

This does not fill me with confidence. It doesn't matter whether we can figure out which tech is best. We need to figure out which tech will become most popular, and that is not the same thing.

Some people have a blessed knack for figuring out what will be popular whereas others do not. I am trying to get better at it, but I am such a square peg that it is often a real struggle.

Conclusion

While we are too late to see insane gains in big coins like Bitcoin, we are not too late to see very nice gains in my opinion. What I mean is that 100x your money might not be a possibility, but 4x might be. With small cap projects, you could still strike gold, but it's hard to know which ones will make it when there are so many.

Are we late to the party? I think so. Yet the night is still young.

Much Love,

Harlow

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Photo from Pixabay.