Fake Pump and Exit Liquidity
I was never sold on the pump and while I was pleased to see Ethereum upwards of $1500, I implore everyone to exercise caution in the market. It is important to understand how the crypto market operates before you dive in.
The thing about the crypto market is that it is rife with hyperboles and small moves often translate to disproportionate reactions on the interweb. Interestingly, this mentality to get overly excited swings in either direction.
Understanding this aspect of the crypto market will enable you to make better decisions. In fact, if you understand certain aspects of the crypto market, you will always be calm because nothing really surprises you anymore.
Alas, Cointelegraph's analyst holds a similar view to mine about the crypto market. The analyst went as far as calling this recent upward price action a "fake pump".
"Fake pump" mirrors my view of the market quite precisely. There's really no reason why assets are moving the way they are and with trading volumes so low, I doubt that this pump will be sustainable.
Generally speaking, there's not enough money in the system to sustain this height. In the worst-case scenario, everything just comes crashing down and people who FOMO in will be exit liquidity for whales looking to play it safe.
Something to think about
Ethereum is still currently a little bit above $1500 with a 24hr high of around $1650 range. That's a nice range, all things considered, but my guess is that we'll see it drop back to the $1100-$1200 range that it held at the "peak" of the bear market.
Speaking of the bear market, something feels different about this one. It doesn't feel as bearish as I thought it would be, which makes me both scared and happy at the same time due to two distinctly different possible scenarios.
I'm happy because if this is truly the peak of the bear market and we're truly in the "maximum pain" region at this price range, then it means the crypto market has become more mature and stronger than ever. What I"m saying is despite how low prices are and with the normal four-year cycle, it doesn't seem so bad for a bear market.
On the flip side, I'm worried because if we're truly in a bear market, things often get worst and the peak of a bear market is where we experience maximum pain. All things considered, the pain hasn't been quite as deep, which makes me worry that it is possible something worse is on the horizon.
In any case, it is important to always have the perspective of how far the crypto market has come and think about the journey ahead. Things may not be where you want them to be right now, but while it is possible for things to get much better, keep in mind that they could also be far worse than it is.
In either direction, always be ready to pivot and adjust your finances to suit the situation.
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I'm not saying this is a fake pump or it isn't. I have no way to know. But there are plenty of reasons this pump could be real. Mainly that all the bad news is priced in.
The market already sold off in expectation of huge inflation and rate hikes. All we need is the idea that theres less inflation than we thought going forward and lesser rate cuts and the market is free to take back off to higher levels. It doesn't mean we will instantly run back to all time highs but what if under this new current reality of fewer fed hikes the market decides bitcoin should be at $30k instead of $19k?
We don't need tons of volume to make it real. The entire last 10 year run in the stock market was super low liquidity and low volume. The end of the crypto sell off was not high volume. There was just no buyers so it went in free fall with every seller. Once the sellers are exhausted a few buyers coming in can do the opposite.
Again, I'm not making a prediction but I don't see any reason this needs to be a fakeout and the fact that people are now coming out of the woodwork to say it is makes it seem reasonable that maybe its not.
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I have a similar feeling tbh. I've been waiting for maximum pain but it never came and now we're seeing something like a rally, so that kind of makes me pessimistic about it all.
$30k is a fair range and is still bearish, all things considered but a much better bearish situation. Time will tell.
It is the time to accumulate and DCA if you're cautious and well-heeled.
I think investing right now big chunks of capital is too risky. This pump is a test and I think lots of us feel that in our guts too. We're going to test BTC to 25k and ETH to 1700, maybe 1800, then plummet back down as July wanes.
I think JUly 25 next week will be a MAJOR day. Keep an eye out. Peace brother.
That's what I've been doing. Just slow and steady buying some of my favourite projects
I think we're going to see huge sales starting next week man, I have $600 in cash left and ready :P What should I buy? :) Peace bro
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Hard to pick a scenario.
I think you favored the first one hoping we are at the peak.
Guess what we are in the middle of the peak so as the numbers keep dropping we will see by September where we stand.
!BEER
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Naturally, I hope things get better but I'm not holding my breath because it could be way worse.
Another rate hike will be on July 28
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Yeah but all that matters is whether the market has priced it in already. In this case it's already priced in up to .75 hike.
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Will be interesting to see how it affects the market
This bear don't not feel like former bear market but believe we should just keep riding with it and never make any irrational moves
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Yeah. Gotta stay frosty
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So who is going to show us that they bought $1000 ETH and are up 50% in a bear market?
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There will be risk takers out there. Do you think Eth will go higher?