The Rebirth of Oil in Venezuela: Current Situation for Oil Companies

In February 2026, the outlook for oil companies in Venezuela underwent a dramatic shift following the removal of Nicolás Maduro on January 3. This political change spurred a rapid opening in the energy sector, with the transitional government under Delcy Rodríguez and the US Trump administration facilitating the return of foreign investment. Venezuela, which possesses the world's largest proven oil reserves (around 303 billion barrels), now sees an opportunity for recovery after decades of decline.

Current production hovers around 800,000 barrels per day (bpd), down from the one million reached in 2024, attributable to previous sanctions and naval blockades that saturated storage capacity. However, with the lifting of these restrictions, a rapid increase is projected: up to 200,000 barrels per day (bpd) within months, and between 300,000 and 500,000 bpd by mid-2027, without the need for massive exploration, simply with access to financing, diluents, and technology. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright visited facilities in the Orinoco Belt on February 12, announcing investments exceeding $100 million in upgrades, with projections to double production in specific fields within 12-18 months and quintuple it within five years.

International oil companies are returning under new General Licenses (GLs) issued by the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC). GL 50 authorizes operations for companies such as BP, Chevron, Eni, Repsol, and Shell, including production, exploration, and the supply of goods. Chevron, in a joint venture with PDVSA, is leading the way with expansion plans in Petropiar. Other global oil companies (GLs) allow the sale of US diluents and contingent contract negotiations, expanding trade in Venezuelan crude. This contrasts sharply with the years of Chavista nationalism and sanctions that reduced production from 3.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in 1998 to current levels.

Nevertheless, significant challenges remain. Infrastructure is deteriorating due to a lack of investment and skilled labor, requiring massive commitments to restore wells, production systems, and pipelines. Major oil companies are cautious in the face of political and regulatory uncertainty, prioritizing stability over massive capital injections. The recent amendment to the Hydrocarbons Law opens avenues for private participation, but the sector needs sustained reforms to attract more players.

Looking ahead, this resurgence could revitalize the Venezuelan economy, which is 95% dependent on oil, and stabilize global markets with more barrels. The US aims to reach an additional 700,000 bpd soon, benefiting both countries. However, success will depend on the consolidation of the new regime and the transparent management of PDVSA. For oil companies, Venezuela represents a high-risk but high-potential bet in 2026.

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