How far can oil go? A market caught between oversupply and geopolitical powder keg.
The price of oil is experiencing one of its most uncertain periods in years. Brent crude traded around $82 per barrel in early March 2026, driven by an escalation related to Iran and risks in shipping, representing a sharp jump from the levels of late February. But how long will this rally last, and how high can the price of a barrel go in the coming months?
Baseline scenario: Downward pressure
If geopolitics calms down, market fundamentals point to moderate or even declining prices. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects global production to exceed global demand, with inventories rising through 2027, and forecasts that Brent crude will average $58 per barrel in 2026. Similarly, Goldman Sachs warns that large surpluses of 1.4 million barrels per day in 2026 will continue to exert downward pressure on prices, and in a scenario of a global economic slowdown or a complete reversal of the OPEC+ voluntary production cuts, Brent could fall to the $40 range.
JPMorgan shares this cautious tone: the bank anticipates that continued surpluses will push Brent prices below $60 by the end of the year, with an annual average of $61.
The Iranian wild card: the threat of $100
However, the current scenario does not allow us to ignore the geopolitical variable. Citigroup analysts place Brent crude in the $80-$90 range in their base case scenario for the coming weeks, while Wood Mackenzie warns that if oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are not quickly restored, crude could exceed $100 per barrel, since even with the OPEC+ production increase in April, additional volumes would be inaccessible if that route remains closed.
Goldman Sachs has already revised its forecast for the second quarter of 2026 upward, raising Brent to $76 and WTI to $71. Morgan Stanley went even further, raising its Brent forecast for the second quarter to $80, from the previous $62.50.
Conclusion: A Two-Speed Market
Oil is currently operating in two parallel realities. If the conflict with Iran de-escalates and OPEC+ maintains high production, prices will tend toward the $58-$65 range by year's end. But if the Strait of Hormuz remains compromised or tensions persist, the market has more than enough ammunition to see the price of a barrel back in triple digits. As the EIA itself summarizes: the most defensible forecast for 2026 is not a straight line, but rather a price environment below the historical average, with occasional spikes when geopolitical issues threaten key shipping routes. In that context, whoever controls Hormuz will control the price.
Disclaimer:
The information provided through this channel does not constitute financial advice and should not be construed as such. This content is for purely informational and educational purposes. Financial decisions should be based on a careful evaluation of your own circumstances and consultation with qualified financial professionals. The accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information provided is not guaranteed, and any reliance on it is at your own risk. Additionally, financial markets are inherently volatile and can change rapidly. It is recommended that you conduct thorough research and seek professional advice before making significant financial decisions. We are not responsible for any loss, damage or consequences that may arise directly or indirectly from the use of this information.