paperhands in the hands of the market.
The 2025 bull run will be one of the most mentally unsettling runs we will ever see, and it is already messing with people's minds.
Back in October/December, there was speculation that Trump's victory in the elections would propel us to a mega 2025, but there is no historical evidence to support this; it was all just vibes.
However, we had the pump in January, and this pump is historically consistent with what we have had previously. However, what we did not expect with Trump's election victory were the tariff shenanigans, as well as the infamous meme coin he launched with his wife.
Although this caused a shift in perspective, as liquidity poured in from all directions to Trump coin. Personally, I believe that the massive liquidity injection into the coin was due to most people's unwillingness to wait for the bull run to play out, and while Trump's meme could have done it for them, we have all seen how it turned out.
Massive amounts of money from retail flowed into Trump coins; some people won, many were burned, but the wait for life-changing money continues.
The disadvantage is that all of the liquidity injected into fake pumps is now gone, and people must wait again.
Donald Trump was not the alpha
So it turned out that Trump was just the next president, and the only thing he can do now is help lower FED rates and possibly reach a more favorable tariff agreement with the countries he is chosen to war with.
I'm not saying Kamala Harris could have been better, for all we care she could have been banning Kraken from operating in the US or some other bearish clamp down, but I think we're now back to realizing that the market is not holding on to any narrative to play out the way it wants.
Potential Paper hands?
The market is threatening to turn people into paper hands, and honestly I believe it'll be able to achieve that to some extent. For me, I only have one motto going forward: hold on to historical data and study the alignment without any sentiment.
For example the pump that happened in January caught everyone off guard again, and why did I say so. We spent the majority of 2024 doing motivational speaking without really looking at the data in our hands.
For example, did we have a pump in January 2021, if so, when did this dissipated? How long did it last, and when will the next pump be?
I do not believe anyone asked themselves these questions. I believe the plan was to pump from January to December once Trump was inaugurated.
Less merrying, more learning
No one was doing their homework, no one was conducting background checks, and we were unfortunately caught off guard. In reality I think we all have to do more homeworks.
It's been proven that most sentimental narratives aren't going to play out, and we need to go back to the drawing board.
January was a proof that we could still end up messing it all up like we did in 2021 just because we were following the trends and sentiment rather than looking at the patterns.
To be honest, you do not need to get it exactly right; just getting it by 60 to 70% would have been a huge win.
When we fail to look at patterns instead of following our emotions, we risk becoming paper hands. It's been proven that we can fail and still fail woefully.
There are always lessons to be learned, one of which is mastering or having complete control over one's emotions. Fortunately, we do not even need total or complete control, just a small fraction, because let us be honest: it is easier said than done.
Interested in some more of my posts
Why Is the grind getting harder?
Monopoly Is the Death of Civilization
Survival: Choas and Scarcity
Crypto: Gut & meaningful Connections
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What Are Some Things You Should not Do During A Bull Market Year?
It was all hype. I think the markets are just like that, and its too bad that the hype wasn't met. Let's see where things go because I think Trump is kind of selective on the crypto he wants to support.
Well it's clear he's supportive but selective, I want to see where that takes him, but I believe he wasn't that miracle worker almost everyone on the timeline made him to be.
Time will tell on this one... The FED has absolutely no connection to the US Government at all, it's a private company that was created by the government at one point. The president has no power over them whatsoever.
The expected bull run sure didn't pan out so far, it not to say that it couldn't rematerialize later in the year. It does leave us crypto investors hoping for some profits in a bit of uncharted territory. The tariff thing will work it's way out, that doesn't worry me too much. What does worry me are the big unknowns. Will Iran test a nuclear weapon shortly? Will the US attack Iran? Will Iran nuke Tel Aviv? Will China use these distractions to try and take Taiwan?
The world is a mess, and it's a scary mess to be honest. I think the best we can do is cross our fingers and hope for the best...
These are prospective scary black swan that can cause a major hit to the market. I don't think we need this at this moment because it'd probably going to disrupt a lot of momentum and create some unnecessary FUD.
However, just like COVID, I think they'll not disrupt the market forever, but it's better we don't have it honestly, it'll be better.
Personally, I'm not paying attention to most sentimental views on the TL, it's probably going to be better to look at patterns and study what's visible
Hopefully none of that crap happens, I would rather hope for the best!
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Definitely more learnings to do. In hindsight, it was quite foolish of us to not factor in that corrections will happen irrespective of what Trump was telling us back in December and Early January. I think many will have taken some profits if not more had they known.
I think the problem is that we haven't been studying the market, just following after Trump's useless election victory and all that stuffs. I think this what many have been doing, personally I'll keep looking at charts and what's historically plausible
Yes, relying more on fundamental/practical data makes sense going forward, even if the market continues to react with Trump's talks on the economy, tariffs, markets etc.
We are all in a class. Learning and earning as we go. And it's more than just crypto, the marker board is every where.
I don't understand what you mean by the "market board". However, yes, it's "learn as you go". Unfortunately many are just following vibes and not learning
I meant to say "marker board".
People really thought Trump’s coin would make them rich fast lol. Now a lot of them are just stuck waiting again for a miracle to Happen. Crypto never goes how we plan but I personally avoid the situation by looking at crypto based chains, communities and utility systems rather than just the single coin except for Bitcoin of course lol. That's why I actually believe in Hive's future
Those who had a plan got out when they should.
yep
Yes, many thought that Trump coin would make them rich, rightly so, it made a few people rich, but it burned many as well. I think the more people it burned, the more liquidity it took from retail. I mean, the money that should be meant for realer projects
yes very true, for me it's the lessons I'm learning from this situation, regardless of what they say, an investment should not be entirely based on what they say haha
Great post, my friend. A lot of people let emotions drive their decisions instead of looking at historical patterns. This cycle shows that emotions can be risky. We need to stay smart, anyways.
The head can be deceived too.
Even tho the heart is where emotions lie.
The risk is everywhere. No one saw it coming. Just have a plan and stick to it strictly.
Yeah, that's right.
Not to be hypocritical, I think it happens to the best of us, so, there's really nothing much we can do other than to try not be too emotional
Well, yes you are very right
https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/1jpwmo0/paperhands_in_the_hands_of_the_market/
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The emotional FOMO has never done anyone well. The hype about the bull run was something else and it’s really sad to see the way things are playing out.
Its was going to be my first bull run experience being new to the crypto space bot with the way things are going, I don’t even know what the future holds…
The future holds great rewards for those that will make the better decisions. Sometimes you need two to three cycles to make it with crypto and this ranges from 8 to 12 years. So if you're not paper hands before then, certainly you'll make it .
I hope not to be😁