Splinterlands - My Guesstimate of Waka Spiritblade Wax Price

There is still 500 Waka Spiritblades to be sold to the public. 480 regular max level cards and 20 gold foil max level cards. The subtle difference in the wax sale on Atomichub compare to in game is that people will be able to select either purchasing the Waka in regular foil or gold foil. On the other hand in game all 500 were sold at 5,000 SPS and 500 vouchers each and that randomly 20 of them will be a gold foil version.

Beyond the subtle difference in how Waka will be offered on Atomichub we have yet to hear more about the details. The biggest one including the price of the cards. In this post I take a few perspectives on what come potentially be the pricing point and make some estimates.

WAX nfts on Atomic Hub

I have been playing multiple WAX nft games since early 2021 and have used Atomichub plenty of times to put out a reasonable review of the NFT trading platform.

First off the fees are painful for the seller. Straight out of Atomichub:

AtomicHub gets 2% of the total sale price from the marketplace smart contract. The fee is deducted from the total Sale Price at the time of the purchase by operation of the Smart Contract(s). Further fees can be royalty fees to the creator of the item or blockchain fees. However, these are not taken "in addition of the sales price", but instead deducted from the sales price directly.

https://wax.atomichub.io/

Platform is easy to use once you sign in with your WAX account and have WAX in your wallet it is pretty straight forward to buy NFTs. On the "market" page you can find a filter to select specific game of NFTs to look for and make sure to select "whitelisted" as this means the cards are more likely be the actual cards than fake ones. Note it is very easy for someone to make fake NFTs so always safe to double check the seller is reputable.

For those unaware the official Splinterlands account selling NFTs on Atomichub is splintrlands where the "e" is missing. Why they chose to do that I am not sure but just like to mention so that not to worry if the NFTs offered on by that account is not a scam.

On the platform there are to ways to purchase NFTs, either directly paying under "sales" tab or bid under "auction" tab. The interesting part here is that the auction tab is something different from that of what we normally see in game on Splinterlands. Seller of the auction can set a minimum bid required and time for auction to end.

Waka Spiritblade on Splinterlands

As mentioned earlier Waka Spiritblade costs 5,000 SPS and 500 Vouchers in game. At the time of the sale SPS was around $0.15 while vouchers were around $2.5. Assume we stick with those numbers than the actual price of one Waka is:

5,000 x $0.15 + 500 x $2.2 = $750 + $1,100 = $1,850

Now its really a ballpark number as some players did not have to pay the specific prices of either SPS and vouchers but have accumulated them through air drops and staking SPS. All in all the price of a Waka can be said to be just under $2k. The card was in high demand and sold out within minutes of the offering. No whitelist or restrictions on who could purchase or limit on how many can be purchased.

With the price laid out clearly on Splinterlands we can cross reference the $ value calculated for in game purchase with how much it will be equivalent in Wax tokens.

$1,850 / $0.29 = 6,379.31 WAX

So from dollar perspective it would cost slightly lower than 6,400 WAX to purchase the Waka at current price of wax. Yet personally I do not believe the $ to Wax conversion is what will be used when the card is offered on Atomichub.

For one the cost of Waka was never a $ value to it but were in game tokens in SPS and vouchers. As mentioned earlier a majority of SPS and vouchers are held by players who have been with Splinterlands for the longest or invested the most at the early stages of the game. Therefore the intrinsic value of SPS and vouchers would be much more than just $ amount.

In addition on Atomichub the sale of Waka is split between a regular and gold foil. Therefore the chances of getting more for those who purchases a Waka on Automichub is removed. Instead the price of gold foil will likely be at least 25x of that of the regular version based on DEC burn rate. This will lead to overall higher prices as the starting point of Waka gold foil on Atomichub is high.

Auctions And Ranking of Purchase

Over on Atomichub when a card is posted it has a ranking of when it is printed. Assuming all 500 cards will automatically be posted on the day it is offered in Atomichub we can safely assume each one will have a number to it. A common theme on Atomichub is that low numbers for a card is consider special and that the #1 card is very valuable. Whether this is true for the Waka remains to be seen but lets assume this trend transfer over to the card.

The initial demand for Waka will be high at the beginning as all those awaiting to get one since they may likely had missed out during in game sale. Splinterlands have a couple of ways to offer Waka on Atomichub. Either through a bid or through the basic sales. Either way the ranking of the cards would be offered from 1st to 500th.

Guesstimates

There will be plenty of people trying to get the 1st card so it would not surprise me that Splinterlands provide an auction on the 1st regular foil and 1st gold foil Waka. Those prices once bid expires per say in a short time like 1 hour or less after it starts would be enough time for a bidding war to initiate. The winning bidder prices would then be the fixed price offered for the remaining cards and to those who buy them will pony up that amount of WAX tokens.

Atomichub only allows WAX as form of payment for NFTs. Therefore if Splinterlands wants to limit a buyer they may need to process some form of whilelist prior to offering Waka on Atomichub. I have personally seen other games on WAX chain provide in their dedicated social media channels such as Discord or Telegram specific rules for players in order to earn a whitelist spot. The requirements can include spending some other form of token to earn or purchase a whilelist spot that in turn will lead the participants into an opportunity to purchase the card first on Atomichub.

Going back on the price of Waka I personally believe it will fall in the range of 15,000 to 20,000 WAX minimum. It may sound extreme and maybe so but take into consideration that SPS and vouchers are very limited to only those who have long standing ties with the game. This would mean outsiders of Splinterlands if they seek to be vested into a card game that is the rarest of rares it would be fitting that the card be worth a lot more in present terms.

SPS although at the time is around $0.15 it was once over $1 and could be back at that price in a year or more from now. That would mean current players who spent that amount of SPS and vouchers were under pricing the value of SPS and that if SPS goes to $1 they would likely have paid over $5,000 for Waka. For those who say the same can hold true if SPS falls below $0.15 I would say that Splinterlands developers picked 5000 SPS and 500 vouchers for a reason. They likely saw the supply of those tokens were worth something more than where they currently stand and hence pick those numbers. It could not have been random.

Conclusions

1,000 of these cards will ever be printed and in circulation. Meanwhile it is the first card to also offer a virtual reality avatar so owners of the card can flex their Splinterlands muscles on social media platforms. For instance the card itself has and 3d skull image that users can share on snapchat. The regular foil and gold foil have separate color of skull to delineate between the two. With only 960 regular foil and 40 gold foil in total.

500 of these cards were sold in minutes on Splinterlands. While we await of what the date of release and price of the card will be on Atomichub. I gave my estimate and how I think Splinterlands would proceed when offering the card on Atomichub. What do you think about Splinterlands and its sale of Waka on Atomichub?

If curious here is the original blog post from Splinterlands regarding Waka Spiritblade sale announcement:

https://peakd.com/hive-13323/@splinterlands/waka-flocka-partnership-announcement

Until next time thanks for reading!!!

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