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Those are some good points and while I agree with you that a tool in the right hands versus the wrong hands can have much different outcomes, I think we also need to be remind of the hubris that can quickly lead from one outcome to another.
Hubris is certainly something that is not in short supply of late. It sometimes takes an uncomfortable duration become apparent in the marketplace of ideas, but it is always there, lurking like a spectre :)
To come back to your top level topic - "Are we cheating?" - Maybe a follow up question could be, what aren't we including in the models - and where are we definitely still doing the hard work?
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