What caused the fertility decline? It's not smartphones. There is a much simpler explanation.
Was hat den dramatischen globalen Rückgang der Geburtenrate ausgelöst?
So wie immer ist es kompliziert, es ist nicht nur ein Grund, sondern eine Kombination aus vielen, aber es gibt auch eine einfache Erklärung, die in der Debatte oft verschwiegen wird, zu der ich gleich komme.
Denke nicht, dass Smartphones oder das Internet hauptverantwortlich für den Geburtenrückgang sind, sondern sie sind eher Verstärker eines Trends, der bereits vorher existierte. Social Media und Dating Apps können jedoch die Wahrnehmung des eigenen Wertes entweder nach unten oder oben verzerren.
Von Dating Apps profitieren hauptsächlich Frauen und die obersten 1% der Männer, die dann einfacher an Sex kommen können. Für langfristige Beziehungen und Kinder ist diese Konstellation aber in den meisten Fällen nicht unbedingt zuträglich.
Bei Social Media (ig, tiktok) ist es dann wieder umgekehrt. Durch die Flut an extrem schönen, (KI-)bearbeiteten und kuratierten Bildern, können Frauen dann wiederum unter Druck geraten, an ihrer eigenen Schönheit zu zweifeln. Das gilt für Männer übrigens auch, andererseits auf einer etwas anderen Ebene. Der permanente Vergleich mit dem Erfolg anderer Menschen kann einen schnell neidisch oder deprimiert machen.
Der Leistungsdruck und die Erwartungshaltungen sind enorm angestiegen, aber denke, dass ist nicht unbedingt die Hauptursache für den Geburtenrückgang, sondern etwas viel Banaleres und jetzt haltet euch fest:
Das Aufkommen der effektiven Geburtenkontrolle (Birth Control, Pille, Abtreibungen) in den 1960 und 1970-er Jahren war meiner Meinung nach einer der Haupttreiber des Geburtenrückgangs, dazu kommen global gesehen hohe Abtreibungsraten, die mich geflasht haben, die ungefähr auf 73 Millionen jährlich bzw. auf fast 1 Milliarde in 10-12 Jahren geschätzt werden. Das ist heftig.
Der zweite wichtige Grund ist ökonomischer Natur. Als Mann kann man sich als Alleinverdiener kaum noch eine Familie leisten, oft sich ohne Unterstützung der Eltern kaum noch selbst erhalten.
Frauen sind dazu gedrängt worden ebenfalls erwerbstätig zu sein, was lange Ausbildungszeiten und Karrierestress verursacht. Keine gute Ausgangslage für Kinder. Doppelt und Dreifach-Belastung. Job, Beziehung, Familie.
Das hat wiederum einen weiteren negativen Nebeneffekt zur Folge. Durch die Erwerbstätigkeit der Frauen und der hohen Bildung ist das soziale und wirtschaftliche Ranking der Frauen stark angestiegen, was die natürlichen, evolutionär entstandenen Wunsch nach Hypergamie unterminiert. "Dating up" wird immer schwieriger.
Für hoch gebildete Frauen, die vielleicht sogar mehr verdienen als Männer, wird es zunehmend schwierig den richtigen Prinzen zu finden, einen Partner der sozial besser gestellt ist, als man selbst. Das geht sich mathematisch dann nicht mehr aus, wenn zum Beispiel in vielen Studienrichtungen bereits mehr Frauen einen Hochschulabschluss haben als Männer.
Die Folge, Frustration, ewiges Warten auf den Prinzen, der einfach nicht kommt.
All diese Gründe führen dazu, dass Frauen immer später schwanger werden, nach dem ersten Kind geht es sich biologisch gesehen dann zeitlich nicht mehr so gut aus viele Kinder zu bekommen.
Andererseits kann man den jetzigen Geburtenrückgang auch als natürliche Umkehrbewegung des exponentiellen Bevölkerungswachstums der letzten 200 Jahre sehen. Die Bevölkerung kann nicht ewig exponentiell wachsen. Eine gewisse Korrektur war also notwendig und absehbar, erzeugt jetzt aber enorme gesellschaftliche Herausforderungen.
Was sagt ihr dazu? Was denkt ihr sind die Hauptursachen für den starken Geburtenrückgang? Werden Familien (mit Vater, Mutter, Kind) nicht mehr so geschätzt wie früher? Weibliche Perspektive zu dem Thema wäre auch interessant.
https://x.com/IterIntellectus/status/2065099671492600276
https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/2056341632253862099
English
What has triggered the dramatic global decline in the birth rate?
As always, it’s complicated, there isn’t just one reason, but rather a combination of many, but there’s also a simple cause that’s often overlooked in the debate, which I’ll get to in a moment.
I don’t think smartphones or the internet are primarily responsible for the decline in births, rather, they serve as amplifiers of a trend that already existed. Social media and dating apps, however, can distort one’s perception of self-worth—either downward or upward.
Dating apps mainly benefit women and the top 1% of men, who can then have access to sex more easily. In most cases, however, this dynamic isn’t necessarily conducive to long-term relationships and having children.
With social media (ig, tiktok), the situation is reversed. Due to the flood of extremely beautiful, (AI-)edited, and curated images, women can in turn feel pressured to doubt their own beauty. This applies to men as well, by the way, though on a slightly different level. Constantly comparing oneself to other people’s success stories can quickly make one envious or depressed.
The pressure to perform and expectations have risen enormously, but I don’t think that’s necessarily the main cause of the decline in birth rates either, rather, it’s something much more mundane, and now brace yourselves:
The advent of effective birth control (medical progress, the pill, abortions) in the 1960s and 1970s was, in my opinion, one of the main drivers of the decline in birth rates. Added to this are the high global abortion rates, which really blew my mind, estimated at about 73 million annually, or nearly 1 billion over 10–12 years. That’s staggering.
The second major reason is economic in nature. As a man, it’s nearly impossible to support a family as the sole breadwinner, often, without parental support, it’s barely possible to support oneself nowadays.
Women have been pressured to enter the workforce as well, which leads to long periods of education and career-related stress. This isn’t a good starting point for raising children. It creates a double or even triple burden for women: job, relationship and family.
This, in turn, has another negative side effect. Due to women’s participation in the workforce and their high levels of education, women’s social and economic standing has risen sharply, which undermines the natural, evolutionarily driven desire for hypergamy. “Dating up” is becoming increasingly difficult.
For highly educated women, who may even earn more than men, it’s becoming increasingly difficult to find the right prince, a partner who is socially better off than they are. Mathematically, this no longer adds up when, for example, in many fields of study, more women already hold college degrees than men.
The result: frustration, an endless wait for the prince who just doesn’t show up.
All these reasons lead to women getting pregnant later and later, biologically speaking, after the first child, the timing is no longer ideal for having many children.
On the other hand, the current decline in birth rates can also be seen as a natural reversal of the exponential population growth of the last 200 years. The population cannot grow exponentially forever. A certain correction was therefore necessary and foreseeable, but it is now creating enormous social challenges.
What do you think? What do you think are the main causes of the sharp decline in birth rates? Are families (with a father, mother, child) no longer valued as much as they used to be? Female perspective on this matter would also be interesting.
Es ist definitiv nicht einfach, ich suche auch noch nach einer Partnerin und sehr viele Frauen haben Vorstellungen die 90% der Männer nicht erfüllen können
Schade, dass Du die Covid-mRNA-Gentherapien nicht erwähnst.
Google mal Fauci´s private Notizen nach. Die Leute wussten es schon früh!
Die Geburtenraten waren bereits vor Corona stark rückläufig. Lockdowns und die darauffolgende Stagflation haben die Situation dann noch einmal verschärft. Impfschäden gab es sicher auch, aber denke der ökonomische Faktor ist maßgeblicher.
Das und der linke, klimawahnsinnige Mindset (manche glaube, Kinder in die Welt zu setzen, ist ein Verbrechen am Planeten).
Zumindest in England ist die Fehlgeburtsrate (die ja auch zur Lebendgeburtsrate beiträgt) nach 2021 stark angestiegen, von anderen Ländern gibt es keine oder unklare Daten. Laut offiziellen Studien gibt es keinen Zusammenhang mit den Impfungen, aber ich traue denen nicht. Zuviel ist in dem Bereich manipuliert worden.
PS: Nur zur Info, die upvotes, die Du Kommentaren gibst, sind immer noch unter der dust-treshold, also verschwendet.
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War da nicht was mit einer Bratwurst?
I think there are plenty of factors. We have been ingesting more chemicals lately in addition to all the factors you listed. It just seems harder to survive with the increasing prices.
It's something I've been thinking about a long time. And everything you said, I agree with. Not to mention that in many households, women still do a lot more of the work (emotional and house-related). It's too much to handle and we don't know how to change that.
I would also point to the oft-quoted fact that the more anxious and unhappy we feel about the future, the less we tend to reproduce. That's the theory I'm working with at the moment, at least. It's dystopic to me, as a young woman, that we live in such uncertain times, are aware of the possibility of oncoming crisis (be it another pandemic, war, migration-related societal change in Europe or other such), yet are expected to still bring kids into that future. I'm stocking up supplies in case of a crisis, yet my body is supposed to feel safe enough to reproduce. that's nuts.
On the other hand, there's literally no better way to avoid that future than reproduction. If we stop reproducing, we might as well be culling the forces of good ourselves. What better way to ensure that your values, your goodness, and all these other gifts you hope to see preserved in the future, will be preserved?
I 100% agree. All of the issues related to economics/cost of living, environmental concerns, war, disease and ultimately quality of life which will only get worse with increased population.
Don´t forget that the government-controlled media are exaggerating the threats (climate, invasion by the evil Putin, pandemic, in Germany threat of the "extreme right"), because people in fear are better controllable, as was seen clearly in the "pandemic". People were doing everything, even the most ridiculous things without protest (e.g. putting a piece of dangerous plastic in front of your nose instead of breathing freely).
Against other threats you can self defend (you can minimize your risk of being stabbed or raped).
So for a self-thinking human no reason to not reproduce. By denying this most natural process women will give the final death kiss to Europe.
I am afraid so! (no pun intended)
I'm quite aware of the exaggeration of fear. It's astounding to me more people are not, since it's rather obvious. Every day, there's a new crisis, new disease, new threat or reason to panic. I've been taking the courses of Peterson Academy (Jordan Peterson's pretty cool brain-child) and one thing I loved is that they focused some courses on reminding you that actually, there is also abundance in our world. The threats are blown out of proportion. There is reason to reproduce and hope for the future. Very important message, if you ask me.
Interesting, I think there is and never was the perfect time to have children, it just happend naturally, then in the 1960-ies and 1970-ies extremely effective birth control was invented or became widely available, which made it possible to delay or abort births at a large scale, which led to significantly fewer children than before. But you can debate cause and effect of course. The many uncertainties and the economic situation (inflation, stagflation) make it extremely hard to start a family nowadays.
https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/usa/united-states/birth-rate
I don't think there's a perfect time either, and it seems to be confirmed by my older friends who are already parents. The Pill certainly liberated many women from reproductive slavery (essentially) but I do wonder why the leap from "you can decide when and how many kids to have" to never having kids happened. Personally, I see it as beneficial that I am able to have sex without fearing pregnancy each time or having something like 20 kids in my life. But that doesn't make me feel like I should just not have them.
But don't you think there were always economic uncertainties? Of course, we tend to think ours is the worst time and it seems like it, surely. At the same time, people were pregnant during WW2 and after Hiroshima. During plagues and other such. Of course, they had little choice, and that's probably the true differentiator. The stress and uncertainty was there always. You just had to suck it up and brave life, anyway.
Der finanzielle Aspekt ist valide, Kinder muss man sich leisten wollen & können.. Und manche wollen die langjährige Verantwortung nicht mehr übernehmen. Männer wie Frauen.
Declining in the Netherlands also.
No affordable houses to start a family.
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STOPI think it is something to do with the economy where life is much more different years and decades ago
I can say that the main cause on the sharp decline in the birth rates is because of the economic status where both parents need to work to sustain the family needs