Bulgaria to join the Euro zone next year replacing the National Lev (Leo currency), without a referendum, good or bad for Bulgaria?
Bulgarien führt ab Januar 2026 den Euro ein und ersetzt damit die 145-Jahre alte nationale Währung "Lev" (Leo, Löwe).
Die Bevölkerung ist in dieser Frage gespalten, bis jetzt war es circa 50-50, aber eine neue Eurobarometer-Umfrage von März 2025 ergab sogar eine relativ starke Ablehnung (53% dagegen, 45% dafür). Eine Volksabstimmung über dieses wichtige Thema gibt es nicht. Demokratie ist in Bulgarien eher negativ konnotiert. An eine echte Demokratie glaubt kaum noch jemand am Balkan. Korruption, Krisen und Armut haben zu einer großen Auswanderungswelle geführt, die das Land auch wirtschaftlich stark unter Druck setzt.
Mittlerweile wird sogar gegen den Euro demonstriert, obwohl die Einführung bereits beschlossene Sache ist, und plötzlich schneller geht als gedacht. Eben vollständig zu Schengen beigetreten, steht jetzt auch die Euro-Einführung kurz vor der Tür.
Bulgarien ist aber monetär gesehen ein Sonderfall. Nach der katastrophalen Hyperinflation von 1996/97 hat die damalige Regierung die nationale Währung zunächst an die Deutsche Mark (DM) und anschließend an den Euro gekoppelt, wobei 1 Euro ungefähr 2 Leva entsprechen. 1 EUR = 1.95583 BGN (Leva).
Das hat die letzten Jahrzehnte erstaunlich gut funktioniert. Voraussetzung war aber eine extrem disziplinierte Budget- und Staatsschulden-Politik, da ansonsten der Peg nicht gehalten hätte.
Staatsschulden, Budgetdefizite und Inflation waren daher dank der Währungs-Koppelung in Bulgarien sehr überschaubar. In manchen Jahren gab es sogar einen fiskalen Budget-Überschuss. Die Staatsschulden sind auf einem niedrigen Niveau von 20-25% geblieben.
Das heißt, faktisch ändert sich durch die Euro-Einführung nicht viel, eher emotional. Bulgarien verliert damit einen Teil seiner Identität und wird damit stärker an die EU gebunden.
Wirtschaftlich hat der Euro aber viele Vorteile für Bulgarien. EU-weite Investitionen in Bulgarien werden damit einfacher und es fallen auch die hohen Wechselgebühren und das Währungsrisiko weg und Bulgarien erhält damit auch Zugang zum ESM-Mechanismus der Eurozone und eine Art Lizenz zum Schuldenmachen, im Rahmen der Maastricht-Kriterien, ohne dabei den Peg zu verlieren.
Die Bevölkerung befürchtet durch die Euro-Einführung einen Preisanstieg, Inflation, was vielleicht übertrieben ist. Kurzfristig wird sich nicht viel ändern meiner Meinung nach, da der Lev ja ohnehin an den Euro gekoppelt war. Kleinere Beträge des täglichen Lebens könnten in den nächsten Jahren aber tatsächlich stark steigen. Das ist Preispsychologie, da Preise in Euro niedriger erscheinen als in Leva.
Sollte Bulgarien auch von seiner bisherigen strikten Budgetpolitik abrücken, könnte das tatsächlich zu einer erhöhten Inflation führen. Auf der anderen Seite hätte Bulgarien im Vergleich zu anderen Euroländer mehr Spielräume sich zu verschulden und damit zum Beispiel notwendige Investitionen in die Infrastruktur zu finanzieren.
Langfristig könnte die Euro-Einführung wirtschaftlich gesehen für Bulgarien tatsächlich vorteilhaft sein.
Die Frage ist, ob die Löhne im selben Ausmaß wie die Inflation ansteigen werden, oder ob mit der zusätzlichen Euro-Inflation die normale Bevölkerung noch weiter verarmen wird, wenn das zusätzliche Geld zum Beispiel primär für Rüstung und Kriege ausgegeben wird und in der Korruption versinkt. Fiat-Dilemma.
Was denkt ihr? Ist die Euro-Einführung für Bulgarien eher gut oder schlecht? Sind die Inflations-Bedenken berechtigt oder ein Mythos, wie es die Regierung nennt?
Bulgaria to join the Euro zone in 2026
Official Euro website for Bulgaria
EUR/BGN (Euro/Leva) peg, fixed exchange rate as of July 8th 2025, same exchange rate that the national Currency Board aimed for since 1997 (pegged to the German Mark) / 1999 (pegged to the Euro).
1 EUR = 1.95583 BGN
Bulgaria and the euro, Eurobarometer survey
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bulgaria_and_the_euro#Public_opinion
English
Bulgaria will introduce the euro in January 2026, replacing the 145-year-old national currency, the lev (lion).
The population is divided on this issue, until now, it was about 50-50, but a new Eurobarometer survey from March 2025 even shows relatively strong opposition (53% against, 45% in favor). There will be no referendum on this important issue. Democracy has rather negative connotations in Bulgaria. Hardly anyone in the Balkans believes in true democracy anymore. Corruption, crises, and poverty have led to a large wave of emigration, which is also putting the country under severe economic pressure.
There are now even demonstrations against the euro, even though its introduction has already been decided and is suddenly happening faster than expected. Having just joined Schengen, the introduction of the euro is now also just around the corner.
However, Bulgaria is a special case in monetary terms. After the catastrophic hyperinflation of 1996/97, the government at the time pegged the national currency (Leva, BGN) first to the German mark (DM) and then to the euro (EUR), with 1 euro corresponding to approximately 2 leva. 1 EUR = 1.95583 BGN (leva).
This has worked surprisingly well over the last few decades. However, it required extremely disciplined budget and public debt policies, otherwise the peg would not have been maintained and would have fallen apart.
Thanks to the currency peg, public debt, budget deficits, and inflation were therefore very manageable in Bulgaria. In some years, there was even a fiscal budget surplus. Public debt has remained at a low level of 20-25%.
This means that, in fact, the introduction of the euro will not change much, except perhaps emotionally. Bulgaria will lose part of its identity and become more closely tied to the EU.
Economically, however, the euro has many advantages for Bulgaria. EU-wide investments in Bulgaria will become easier, high exchange fees and currency risk will be eliminated, and Bulgaria will also gain access to the eurozone's ESM mechanism and a kind of license to incur debt within the framework of the Maastricht criteria without losing its peg.
The population fears that the introduction of the euro will lead to price increases, inflation, which is perhaps an exaggeration. In my opinion, not much will change in the short term, as the lev was already pegged to the euro. However, smaller amounts in everyday life could actually rise sharply in the coming years. This is price psychology, as prices in euros appear lower than in leva.
If Bulgaria also moves away from its previous strict budgetary policy, this could indeed lead to higher inflation. On the other hand, Bulgaria would have more leeway to take on debt compared to other eurozone countries and thus finance necessary investments in infrastructure, for example.
In the long term, the introduction of the euro could actually be beneficial for Bulgaria from an economic perspective.
The question is whether wages will rise at the same rate as inflation, or whether the additional euro inflation will further impoverish the general population if the additional money is spent primarily on armaments and wars, for example, and sinks into corruption. Fiat dilemma.
What do you think? Is the introduction of the euro good or bad for Bulgaria? Are the inflation concerns justified or a myth, as the government claims?
As I see other people discussing as well, but this won't be too good for the economy of Bulgaria as prices will rise.
To be honest, I'm not that familiar with the subject, but when you talk to people from the eastern region, you always hear that the EU has brought them nothing. But it's more likely to be down to corrupt politicians than the euro itself. It will be interesting to see how the global economy develops and whether we get a digital euro that is also useful and not as limited as you always read in the media. Maybe the limits will change in the future, but I've just digressed a lot ^^'
Well switching to the euro is cool since Bulgaria was basically using it already, but if wages don’t catch up and corruption eats the benefits, people will just feel poorer and angrier in the end
As I read this, what was ringing in my mind was Nigeria's story. This is similar to Nigeria story, especially where you stated:
"Democracy has rather negative connotations in Bulgaria. Hardly anyone in the Balkans believes in true democracy anymore. Corruption, crises, and poverty have led to a large wave of emigration, which is also putting the country under severe economic pressure."
If you replace "leva" with "naira" (Nigerian currency), and replace "euro" with "dollar", you've said the Nigeria's story almost in full.
The economic problems in the world is Hydra-headed, and it requires not just knowledge but, wisdom, and even luck to navigate through to safety.
It's safer to simply wish Bulgaria good luck in their endeavour to find their feet in the murky economic water. There's no particular textbook theory that one can state that would solve this economic quagmire with a positive certainty.
Good luck to them when prices will rise like in Croatia!
!PIZZA
For the middle class and the poor, it's terrible news: prices will skyrocket, but wages won't. For the rich, it's fantastic: their assets will be in a stronger currency.
Very well summed up.
The good thing is that most people in Bulgaria own houses.
Maybe usage of cryptocurrencies for everyday uses will become higher in the coming years and the national currency will matter less. Hopefully, the cryptocurrencies will be ones that maintain people's freedoms and provide a sensible economic system.
https://www.reddit.com/r/europe_sub/comments/1n5yonm/bulgaria_to_join_the_euro_zone_next_year/
https://www.reddit.com/r/Economics/comments/1n5zjup/just_a_momentbulgaria_to_join_the_euro_zone_next/
This post has been shared on Reddit by @flummi97, @memess through the HivePosh initiative.
Ein weiterer Patient im Euro Raum. 🤷♂
!BEER
$PIZZA slices delivered:
@davideownzall(4/15) tipped @vikisecrets
Come get MOONed!
I think the introduction of euro to Bulgaria could have an impact especially if the inflation rises
!BBH
it brings inflation concerns as there is a difference between the value of euro and bgn
That’s a big change for Bulgaria. Joining the euro might bring economic benefits, but I can understand why many people are worried about prices going up and losing a part of their national identity. It will be interesting to see how things turn out in 2026
I tend to lean on it being more bad than good for countries. Unless the economy is fairly strong, I just don't think the benefits outweigh the disadvantages.
For Bulgaria, the euro will facilitate long-term investment and reduce currency risk. However, I think that people's concerns about inflation and the rising cost of living are valid and should not be ignored.