Black swan for free trade: Trump imposed 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, 10% on China. UK/EU next? Possible rationale behind the tariffs.
Black-Swan-Event fĂŒr den Freihandel: Trump fĂŒhrt 25%-Zölle gegen Kanada und Mexico ein, 10% gegen China. UK/EU als nĂ€chstes?
Die USA haben einen Handelskrieg gegen ihre eigenen NachbarlĂ€nder und VerbĂŒndeten begonnen, wobei Kanada und Mexico im Moment sogar schlechter aussteigen als China. Das ist heftig.
Was steckt dahinter? Ist es nur eine erratische Entscheidung Trumps oder gibt es tatsÀchlich einen rationalen Plan dahinter?
Migration und Drogenhandel
Der offizielle Grund fĂŒr die Einfuhr der Zölle ist es, Kanada und Mexico unter Druck zu setzen, die illegale Migration und den illegalen Drogenhandel (Fentanyl) in die USA einzuschrĂ€nken.
Es gibt aber keine historische PrĂ€zedenz dafĂŒr, dass Zölle den illegalen Drogenhandel oder die Migration je eingeschrĂ€nkt hĂ€tten.
Das Wesen des Drogenhandels und des Schlepperwesens ist es, Waren und Migranten illegal um den Zoll herum in das Land zu schmuggeln.
Die Zölle könnten daher eher als politische Waffe eingesetzt werden, die jeweiligen Regierungen in Kanada und Mexico unter Druck zu setzen, mehr gegen den Drogenhandel und die Migration zu unternehmen. Fraglich, ob das funktioniert.
Neue HandelsvertrÀge
Eine andere ErklĂ€rung ist, dass Trump die Zölle einfĂŒhrt, um damit bessere Konditionen fĂŒr den Handel mit seinen NachbarlĂ€ndern auszuhandeln. Das ist riskant und die KollateralschĂ€den sind enorm.
Verlagerung der Produktion in die USA
Und dann gibt es noch den eigentlichen Nutzen von Zöllen, um die Inlandsproduktion zu stĂŒtzen bzw. die Produktion in die USA zu verlegen. Das kann aber Jahre oder sogar Jahrzehnte dauern.
Dazu mĂŒsste es den Willen und auch billige und verfĂŒgbare ArbeitskrĂ€fte im Inland geben, die es in dieser Menge derzeit wahrscheinlich gar nicht gibt. Es soll ja gerade die Migration von billigen ArbeitskrĂ€ften eingeschrĂ€nkt werden. Die Verlagerung der Produktion wĂŒrde eher nur mit massiver Automation/KI funktionieren, wĂŒrde aber fĂŒr den Arbeitsmarkt wenig bringen und Jahre/Jahrzehnte in Anspruch nehmen.
China als Gewinner?
Realistischer ist, dass die Zölle einfach die Preise ansteigen lassen und zu Gegen-MaĂnahmen in den betroffenen LĂ€ndern fĂŒhren werden. Das wird ebenfalls den US-Export von Waren hart treffen. Eine Loose-Loose-Situation. Rezession als Folge.
China könnte von dem Handelskrieg sogar profitieren. Sollte die Kaufkraft in den USA und im globalen Westen sinken, könnten billigere Waren aus China sogar noch mehr Nachfrage erhalten. Um die höheren Zölle aus Kanada und Mexico zu umgehen, könnten Waren zunehmend aus China importiert werden.
Eine andere ErklĂ€rung fĂŒr die Zölle ist, dass die USA damit einfach nur Chaos in den NachbarlĂ€ndern stiften möchte, um zum Beispiel einen Regierungsumsturz herbeizufĂŒhren. Trump möchte ja sogar Kanada annektieren.
Vielleicht gibt es aber ĂŒberhaupt keine rationale ErklĂ€rung fĂŒr den Handelskrieg.
Was denkt ihr, warum fĂŒhrt die USA jetzt höhere Zölle gegen seine Nachbarn ein als China? Wie lange wird das die USA durchhalten? Könnten die Zölle auch nach hinten losgehen? Die USA nicht mehr als fairer und zuverlĂ€ssiger Partner gesehen werden?
Tariffs against Canada, Mexico and China
Source: pixabay
https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1885821495080825305
https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1885144733107765406
https://x.com/YourAnonCentral/status/1885891681251377595
English
Black Swan event for free trade: Trump introduces 25% tariffs against Canada and Mexico, 10% against China. UK/EU next?
The US has started a trade war against its own neighbors and allies, with Canada and Mexico coming off even worse than China at the moment. Insane.
What's behind this? Is it just an erratic decision by Trump or is there actually a rational plan behind it?
Migration and drug trafficking
The official reason for imposing the tariffs is to put pressure on Canada and Mexico to restrict illegal migration and illegal drug trafficking (fentanyl) into the US.
However, there is no historical precedent that tariffs have ever curtailed the illegal drug trade or migration.
The nature of drug trafficking and smuggling is to illegally smuggle goods and migrants into the country around customs and border control.
The tariffs could therefore be used more as a political weapon to pressure the respective governments in Canada and Mexico to do more about drug trafficking and migration. However, it's questionable whether this will work.
New trade agreements
Another explanation is that Trump is introducing the tariffs in order to negotiate better conditions for trade with his neighboring countries in the future. This is risky and the collateral damage is enormous.
Shifting production to the US
And then there is the actual benefit of tariffs to support, protect domestic production or to relocate production to the US. But that could take years or even decades.
For this to happen, there would have to be the will and also cheap and available labor at home, which probably does not exist in this quantity at the moment. After all, the migration of cheap labor should be restricted. Relocating production would probably only work with massive automation/AI, but would do little for the labor market and take probably years/decades.
China as the winner?
More realistically, the tariffs will simply cause prices to rise and lead to countermeasures in the affected countries. This will also hit US exports of goods hard. A lose-lose situation. Global recession as a consequence.
China could even benefit from the trade war. If purchasing power in the US and the global West declines, cheaper goods from China could even be in greater demand. In order to circumvent the higher tariffs from Canada and Mexico, goods could increasingly be imported from China.
Another explanation for the tariffs is that the US simply wants to cause chaos in neighboring countries, for example to bring about a government overthrow. Trump stated he wants to annex Canada.
But perhaps there is no rational explanation for the trade war at all.
Why is the US imposing higher tariffs on its neighbors an allies than China? How long will the US be able to keep up high tariffs against its allies? Could the introduction of tariffs also backfire? The US no longer seen as a fair and reliable partner?
Posted Using INLEO
Hehe, there are indeed crowds on the Canadian side of the border, striving to finally get to the US, and lose their medical care :))
Seems Trump has forgotten the Boston Tea Party :)
haha, also Canada is responsible for 1% of all the illegal drug trafficking in the US.
Just out if curiosity, I'd say that there's way more drug traffic the other way. Do you perhaps know the figures?
With how things played out, it looks like the tariffs on Mexico and Canada were postponed. I think it's Trumps idea to put pressure on the other countries. I think it depends on how you look at things. I don't know how to look at it, but some of his statements are a bit outlandish. I don't think we would annex Canada.
I hope Trump doesn't go too heavy on Europe. We are struggling as is.
Echt krasse MaĂnahmen. Ich bin sehr gespannt wie sich das auswirken wird und ob die EU auch noch dran ist.
Bin gespannt, ob auch Zölle gegen UK eingefĂŒhrt werden, wenn nicht, könnte man die Handelsströme vlt ĂŒber UK verlagern.
ja ich stehe sowas immer sehr kritisch gegenĂŒber, aber klar Trump hat mit seinem America first, das Ziel dass wieder mehr im Land selbst produziert wird und indem er die Waren aus China und anderen LĂ€ndern teuerer macht ist es wieder leichter gegen billigprodukte zu konkurieren. Aber im Endeffekt bezahlt dass alles der Konsument. Ob sich die Amerikaner gefallen lassen dass diverse produkte bei ihnen jetzt so viel teuerer werden ist fraglich.
Denke die Zölle werden viele Produkte einfach verteuern, und die Inflation erhöhen, wĂŒrde man die Produkte in den USA herstellen wĂ€ren sie 2-3x so teuer, daher werden die Konsumenten und die Wirtschaft lieber den Zoll zahlen oder zu noch billigeren chinesischen Alternativ-Produkten ausweichen. China hat auch den geringsten Zoll im Vergleich zu den NachbarlĂ€ndern.
He also had Panama withdraw from agreement with China, this will have consequences
!PIZZA
Europe will react and we will have an industry again. I don't think so. We will continue to talk about the sex of angels.
Trump is not messing around, he has had a lot of time to think it seems and now he wants to put all his plans to action before he forgets them đ
This is obviously a big topic of discussion in Canada. Canada has levied retaliatory tarrifs on American goods now, so essentially we have a trade war going on, which will ultimately hurt both sides (mostly the average consumer) because both sides will just increase the cost of goods. Many Canadians are now boycotting anything made in American as well. People are making and sharing lists of American products to avoid and Canadian substitutes to buy.
How about the US doing more to stop drug trafficking and migration. At least during the Biden administration, the US border was wide open as even those that were caught were immediately released. As for drugs, the CIA's involvement has been documented in several books, not to mention movies... Whatever reasons Trump has, it's not about drugs or illegal immigrants.. just my two cents..
Good point, I think the way more effective approach would be to secure one's own border, implement stricter immigration laws and also to enforce them. Without effective policy and enforcement it's really pointless what happens at the border.
Ich glaube nicht dass das lange hÀlt, aber mal sehen.
!HUG
Trump is tariff crazy. đđđ€
!LUV
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China will benefit from the trade war, that means China won. They are having a good time.
I think this tariff changes could affect US at some point
We'll see how things go. Mexico already got theirs postponed by putting their troops on the border to slow illegals from crossing into the country. That may have been his goal in the first place, who knows? I think his ultimate goal is to have taxation shifted to tariffs and eliminate the federal tax in the US. I wouldn't that, dealing with taxes here is a nightmare! But like I said, we'll see...
Trump really came with plans this timeđ đ
Trump has been executing one plan or the other
I wish to know what heâs afterđ
The impose of higher tariffs would affect the reputation of US as partners
My opinion is that Trump is favoring the China