Miscalculations put Putin in trouble
In a televised speech, at the dawn of last February 24, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a "military operation" in the Donbass region, eastern Ukraine, considering that "confrontation between Russia and nationalist forces in Ukraine is inevitable," before indicating that Russia does not plan to occupy Ukrainian territory.
On that day, too, expectations, many of them Russian, indicated that “military operations” might end on May 9, coinciding with the Russian “Victory Day” (the anniversary of the defeat of Nazi Germany at the end of World War II 1939-1945).
However, with the start of the operation, it became clear that the Kremlin's goals are far beyond the region, especially as the Russian bombing quickly extended to the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, and the rest of the major cities.
In parallel, it became clear that none of the Kremlin's goals or estimates were correct. Today, half a year into the war, Russia is backfiring in its invasion of Ukraine, despite the latter losing about 20 percent of its territory.
With the failure of Russian assessments to win a quick war by controlling the capital, Kyiv, and removing President Volodymyr Zelensky from power in a swift and precise process, the latter was able to turn the equations and change European and American positions towards increasingly supporting his country politically, militarily and economically, in return for Moscow's political and economic isolation.
And the situation rolled into a major confrontation, in Ukraine, between Russia, which is seeking to establish new global equations in which it is an essential party, after decades of Western marginalization and being viewed as a losing party in the Cold War (1947-1991), and between the United States, the European Union and other countries pushed by the Russian war. To rapprochement once again, in rejection of attempts to change the political map in the world according to the whims and desires of decision-makers in Moscow.
The failures inflicted on the Russian army revealed that the Russian military capabilities were greatly exaggerated
Despite the assertion of the Russian political and military leaders that the "special military operation" is going according to plan, the events of the last six months revealed drastic changes in the tactics of the Russian army.
It also showed fluctuations in the main battlefronts, through the decline in focus on the capital, Kyiv, with the intensification of work on eastern and southern Ukraine, without achieving the first primary goal of the war, which is "protecting the Donbass region."
After fierce battles, Russia and Ukrainian separatists managed to control Luhansk, but the fronts in Donetsk have been in a state of stalemate since the end of last June, with the Ukrainian army preventing the fall of the cities of Bakhmut, Slaviansk and Kramatorsk, and retaining about 40 percent of the area of Donetsk region with its administrative borders in 2014. .
Since last May, it has become clear that the "special operation" has turned into a war of military, political and economic attrition between Russia and the "collective West", with several indications that everything that happened for half a year is nothing more than a prelude to "bone-breaking" battles, the end of which defines features. A radically different world than it was before February 24.
Wrong calculations and counterproductive results
Militarily, the failures inflicted on the Russian army in the first phase of the war, the stalemate two months ago in the second phase, and the emergence of major deficiencies in the logistical and operational fields, revealed that the Russian military capabilities were greatly exaggerated, and also showed that the Russian army is not ready to fight an all-out war. And long on the ground, despite Russia's formidable capabilities in the field of ballistic missiles, including the hypersonic missiles that President Vladimir Putin has so much boasted about.
The war also revealed a weakness in conventional weapons, despite the massive armament programs since the Russian war on Georgia in 2008, and that fighting a real war with an enemy that possesses weapons is completely different from the “weapons testing fields” in Syria since 2015.
While it is not possible to ascertain from an impartial source the extent of Russian casualties, the US Assistant Secretary of Defense for Personnel Affairs Colin Kahl said, during a media briefing, on August 8, that “Russia has lost between 70 and 80,000 soldiers since the outbreak of the war.” "This number includes the dead and wounded," he explained.
The war also revealed the deterioration of the morale of the soldiers, and the lack of conviction in fighting the Ukrainians, which prompted the Russian leadership to use the Chechen forces, and public talk about the participation of "Wagner" mercenaries in the war.
On the other hand, the stubborn resistance of the Ukrainians proved that Russia's influence on the Ukrainian street and on Russian speakers is much less than what was being promoted by the Kremlin's propaganda.
Although Russia was able to control two-thirds of the Zaporizhia Province, most of the territory of Kherson, and about a quarter of the territory of the Kharkiv Province, which gave it control over a large part of the “Novorussian” regions (which the Russian thinker Alexander Dugin called for its application), which also includes the Donbass and Odessa regions. In Ukraine, the borders of the “Russian world” have narrowed, and more Ukrainians see Russia as an “enemy,” weakening Russian soft power through the use of church and language.
Although Russia has accelerated the procedures for merging the occupied areas in Ukraine with the Russian territory by granting citizenship, appointing civilian military leaders loyal to it, moving to the Russian health and education systems, imposing car plates and Russian driving certificates, dealing in rubles, using the Internet and others, but this does not rule out The possibility of a popular opposition movement, especially in the southern regions.
It is also not excluded that he will move to the Crimea, which Russia annexed by force in 2014, and the border areas with Russia.
Half a year after the war, Russia had backfired. The war on Ukraine helped bring NATO out of the "clinical death" that it had experienced during the last decade, and reached a point that threatened its collapse during the term of former US President Donald Trump.
The submission of Sweden and Finland membership application to join the alliance one of the most prominent repercussions of the war on the strategic level. Months after Russia presented a paper demanding security guarantees to the United States and NATO in mid-December, specifically the call for the alliance to retreat to the borders it was in before 1997 (that is, when the alliance included 19 countries instead of 30 currently), the war pushed Russian on Ukraine, the Scandinavian countries to abandon the policy of neutrality.
Stockholm and Helsinki saw that the only guarantee of their security was joining the Atlantic, and thus Russia's use of its military force provided the "kiss of life" to the alliance, and pumped new blood into its veins by adding a qualitative addition in northern Europe, which would cause an imbalance in the balance of power in the Baltic and Arctic Ocean regions in favor of the alliance. The Atlantic, with the land border between Russia and NATO doubling to about 2,600 km.
Assuming Russia's success in controlling the eastern and southern regions of Ukraine up to the capital, Kyiv, to prevent Ukraine from turning into a base for the Atlantic to target Russia according to the declared goals of the war, all areas of northwestern Russia are now exposed to NATO after the end of Finland's accession procedures.
Saint Petersburg, the capital of the Russian north, is within the range of NATO missiles if Finland agrees to deploy them on its territory. It is known that Putin stressed last year the inadmissibility of building bases for NATO and deploying missiles in Ukraine, because they could reach Moscow in five minutes, if they were launched from Kharkiv or Kyiv.
With Finland and Sweden joining the Atlantic, the Baltic Sea is turned into a closed lake for the alliance with two small enclaves in the Leningrad and Kaliningrad provinces. In the Arctic, Russia will be forced to strengthen its military presence and allocate huge budgets for this purpose.
Another important repercussion is that the war has created a new geopolitical environment that has strongly re-established the Cold War atmosphere, and will launch an arms race between the West and Russia whose final outcome will not be in Russia’s favor. Expensive costs.
In this regard, Russia appears to be the weakest party with an economy that does not exceed 2 percent of the size of the global economy, and its excessive dependence on energy resources, and perhaps the worst is the technical backwardness that will deepen with the Western sanctions imposed on the background of the war.
Open War
Many argue that the war has turned into a war between Russia and the West on Ukrainian soil, and the war may have become closer to a third world war, with controls maintained by the Russian and Western sides so far, to prevent it from turning into comprehensive confrontations in which nuclear weapons may be used.
Fears of an uneasy situation are increasing as the United States and Europe continue to support Ukraine in order to deprive Russia of a strategic victory that would enable it to change the political map in Europe and impose new security equations. This portends a long war akin to a "finger-biting" operation in which each side uses all its political, economic and military capabilities.
It is certain that the continuation of the war for the coming months increases the uncertainty about the possibility of Russia winning, especially that Western countries have drawn up plans to increase their production of modern weapons intended for Ukraine, and to increase the training of Ukrainians to use them, according to the summary of a meeting held this month in the Danish capital, Copenhagen, in the presence of Defense ministers of 26 countries. The meeting also aimed to ensure that there is no shortage of weapons stocks, and to cooperate in the development of modern weapons.
The statements of officials from the Russian and Ukrainian sides indicate that the chances of reaching a political settlement in the coming months will diminish. The way in which the Kremlin conducted the war politically closed the door on the possibility of Russia reaping political fruits by imposing a settlement in accordance with the goals set by the beginning of the war.
On the other hand, the Russian side cannot enter into serious negotiations before achieving progress on the ground, especially controlling the entire Donbass region, the main objective of the current war.
So far, Western weapons and Ukrainian will seem to be preventing Russian forces from achieving their goal. In exchange for Russia changing the "geographical objectives" of the operation, Ukraine has in recent days been raising the issue of a return to the 1991 borders, i.e. the restoration of the Crimea.
There wasn't a set timeline. They still are completing their objectives:
Stop NATO from setting up bases in Ukraine.
Demilitarize and Denazify
Liberate Donbass
Not only did no Russians even attempt an attack on Kiev it wouldn't benefit Russia to take over the dysfunction that would come after an assassination. They lose all legitimacy that they had by going to the rescue of the Luhansk and Donetsk People's Republics, and would need many times the troops to occupy and control the entire country. Not only that, Putin made it clear that he needs Elensky alive so he can sign the peace agreement, without which the war would never end or and no peace would be recognized. The biggest lie is that Elensky changed Europe's and America's position, when they have always been the same, 8 years of genocide in Donbass and Europe and America was helping Ukraine the entire time, they said nothing to Ukraine blocking Crimea's main source of freshwater, and to this day, despicable idiots like yourself count Crimea as Ukrainian. So what has changed? The saga goes back 14 years for the Americans, when they launched the operations to capture the Ukraine by Fascists and Fascist idolizers alike.
Failure is based on Iraq invasion, decimating everything and sparing nothing. The Russian came with AID, and this is how they treat the enemy:
The Russian Forces were tasked with fixing the opponent's forces away from Donbass and especially Mariupol. Meanwhile in Donbass and Mariupol it was the Volunteers from Chechnya, the Syrian and Ossetia volunteers, and PMC Wagner, all working alongside the people who have been fighting for independence for 8 years. The DNR and LNR forces are the Militias who despite being poorly equipped, lacking any sophisticated equipment or training, and being comprised in vast majority by Defectors from the Ukrop, have continued to push Ukrop back and continue to benefit from captured equipment and defectors. The Russians in showing that they are fighting for the people, not for territory, have won the hearts and minds and that is what the military's primary objective in any operation is.
No drastic or otherwise changes in tactics happened. The initial movement was deliberate to keep the army in Donbass without resupply, to keep the Ukrop in the cities, and meanwhile to fixate the resistance in Donbass then use Artillery and Attrition to drive the enemy to surrender or continue retreating into more and more untenable positions.
The first and primary was to stop NATO from going into Ukraine.
That was accomplished the moment Russia declared the SMO.
The next goal was the Demilitarization and Denazification of Ukraine, not just Donbass
Clearly Donbass will be secured first, by denazifying and demilitarizing the occupied region, as they have been doing. Severodonetsk, Lyshychansch, Mariupol.
They have advanced all the way into Bakhmut, so what do you mean stalemate? They haven't taken many other cities or towns but to claim they haven't made any progress since June when they have continued to gain ground, gaining hundreds of km² since Lyshychansch fell.
Right Sector in Odessa burned dozens alive, in Kivv dozens were massacred by Right Sector snipers, looting, raping, executions, were unleashed on Donbass, on Mariupol, on Donetsk and on Luhansk, so what radical difference..
The implicative point worth making is that if the first phase included complete occupation, what would be the second, and third phases? I emphasized your narrative because it seems that if the first phase failed, how can you move onto phase deux! If the first phase completed, then the first phase couldn't have been to occupy KIVV and kill Elensky.
The last sentence doesn't have a subject, in effect it doesn't make any sense.
The main objective of demilitarizing Ukraine was largely completed by the complete degradation and subsequent capture of the Army in Donbass and the Marines and Nazi in Mariupol. All else either fled, deserted or are destroyed. Territorial Defense Forces are almost depleted as well..
What weakness? Just a general weakness against "real war"?
As if Russia didn't prepare, or that they didn't destroy 200k Ukrop in 6 months? They did it with poorly equipped Militias, and Russian Surplus, with Volunteers from three different countries, and of course, with Russian logistics, and Air and Artillery. I don't see any Ukrainian Equipment. Ukrainians are reduced to Civilian Transport. Ukraine reinforced Severodonetsk before it fell, leading to a lot of captured equipment as they fled from Lyshychansch:
https://www.bitchute.com/video/p1wrTlh2VKYI/
While it is not possible to ascertain from an impartial source the extent of Russian casualties, the US Assistant Secretary of Defense for Personnel Affairs Colin Kahl said, during a media briefing, on August 8, that “Russia has lost between 70 and 80,000 soldiers since the outbreak of the war.” "This number includes the dead and wounded," he explained.
Even if that were true: Ukraine is reported at 200k, that's 2.5 to 1 Russian, or should we say DNR, LNR, PMG, or Chechen? How many Volunteers in Ukraine?
https://ecency.com/ua/@baah/ukrainian-bombshell-the-videos
If Russia lost 80k out of 120k, they couldn't be a cohesive force. Reality contradicts the 80k figures even if you considered most of the casualties as Militia and Volunteers.
The Chechen forces have been fighting from day one. I'm not sure when Wagner got involved but it was hardly for lack of manpower, the Russians never had a problem in that regard. Meanwhile, Ukraine is reduced to terrorizing its own people to fight, or should we say die:
You mean CNN:
https://www.bitchute.com/video/skHvhYFQ9qm0/
Stubborn Resistance:
Fascism and racism aren't laudable accomplishments. Ukraine has been captured by Fascists who celebrate the massacre they carried out and got away with in Odessa. The cynical Fascists made a shrine to the blood sacrifice they carried out in Kivv earlier that year, blaming the Police for the killings and despite the perpetrators testimony and forensic evidence the myth is alive in Ukraine that the police were the perpetrators! So what if they hate Russian culture and Russian people and language?
You mean Crimea? Not that Russia isn't winning the hearts and minds of people everywhere, especially when such blatant propaganda is pushed.
Because the police and government will ever be captured again by Fascists? I don't think so.
By virtue of depleting its armaments in Ukraine, arming the People's Militias.
Let's see how it plays out, if either of them are allowed by their people, or that other NATO members like Turkey or Hungary.
If NATO moves in there. If Finland is allowed to join. If no NATO members don't block them.
Russian Diplomacy made Russia plenty of friends.
The global hegemony has crumbled. Russia has prospered and did so while divorcing for good from the fiat model and securing their currency with gold. Russia is the number one when it comes to natural resources, be it gas, crude or fertilizer and rare earth metals.
Russia fie!ds hypersonic missiles and you call them technical backwardness, after implyimh they lack energy resources for their "excessive dependence"?
One side fight for Satan. They will dine along with Bandera.
Its a finger biting or are they using all its political, economic and military capabilities?
Weapons don't shoot themselves. All the weapons and no soldiers and nothing is accomplished beside enriching Russia's weapons displays.
Lolol because anyone but DNR, LNR can dictate what and when there's peace! Even Russia is there at the bequest of the people of Donbass.
Russia has always been open to negotiations, and it has made the terms clear and clarified that they aren't for negotiation of those terms.
Lolol. What a flat and improbable conclusion. Everyone already knows that Ukraine is all, and only, about territory:
Ukrainian recorded himself committing war crimes when he killed civilians from his APC
https://www.bitchute.com/video/swmtXxyBh38d/
Machine translation: Fox (Konstantin Nikitenko) - drove around Mariupol in an armored personnel carrier and shot at people, for fun.He posted his own death sentence in the form of a video on the net.
Civilians can be seen on the start of the video left between the sign and the tree...
Irina Bykova from Mariupol testifies how Ukraine soldiers/Azov Battalion were shooting at civilians
https://www.bitchute.com/video/q7PRHOaXRScU/
When they tried to leave the city. - Zelinsky 17a... We went to the DPR humanitarian bus. We were (still) on the side where there were Ukrainian residents, on the other side - the DPR (military). Ukraine began to shoot us from machine guns... they began to fire mortars.
Irina Nikolaevna from Mariupol testifies that Ukrainian military are shooting civilians.
https://www.bitchute.com/video/RrkI0W02dhuG/
Irina Nikolaevna from Mariupol (lives on Shevchenko Boulevard): — From the very beginning, from the first days, we were fired upon from Ukraine (Ukrainian military).
Human Shields: Ukrainian Man Shot in Leg Testifies that Ukraine Army Is Shooting at Civilians
https://www.bitchute.com/video/fq8Ea7B1P35S/
Russian forces come across an old man who said he was shot by Ukrainian soldiers while trying to find water. The wounded civilian crawled to safety. He accused Ukraine's forces of preventing residents from leaving buildings and threatened to shoot them if they did -- in an apparent tactic to create human shields.
MAN RELATES AS HE WAS LEAVING MARIUPOL, UKRAINIAN MILITARY WERE SHOOTING CIVILIANS
https://www.bitchute.com/video/31tJdNdvi4GW/
Ukrainian marine testifies to shooting a civilian
https://www.bitchute.com/video/NObA1zvedDqy/
In this video, the senior sergeant of the 501st battalion of the Marine Infantry of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Anton Cherednik, tells how he shot a civilian of the Vostochny district in Mariupol after the civilian failed the 'pronunciation test' of the Ukrainian word "palyanista"
Captured Ukrainian fighters confess to their crimes against civilians shooting women for refusing https://www.bitchute.com/video/SDkjk5uBeCR1/
Ukrainian Nazi Soldiers Killed Ethnic Russians That Tried To Flee Mariupol Before The Arrival Of RU https://www.bitchute.com/video/AlnVvkkSOyVl/
One cam shows Azov Nazis shooting at apartment buildings with bazookas and disappearing again.
https://www.bitchute.com/video/FfKKOehW19pB/
(VERY DISTURBING AND GRAPHIC SOLDIERS RUNNING KICKING OF CIVILIANS IN THE FACE)
https://www.bitchute.com/video/7pnb44ka3aOB/
Nazi Thugs Doing Drivebys For Fun
https://www.bitchute.com/video/h6oV1tnf76Jt/
Ukrainian forces shooting at Ukrainian civilians.
https://www.bitchute.com/video/8u7LpZDgPWjj/
Ukrainian soldiers randomly shoot civilian building...
https://www.bitchute.com/video/epgPeHqCMBmE/
Russia is fighting to liberate the world from this:
The Conduct Of Nazis In Kiev
https://www.bitchute.com/video/PzHWA6nxWTaj/
More Women Tortured in Ukraine - Amused Volkssturm Laughs
https://www.bitchute.com/video/DrurtHHed42o/
Ukrainian Court Of Justice - How Women Are Treated In Kiev By AFU
https://www.bitchute.com/video/kUmwkUWdmIe7/
More 'Freedom and Democracy' in Ukraine
https://www.bitchute.com/video/H0NebgT5Hdnc/
When Will Civilian Torture By Ukrainians End?
https://www.bitchute.com/video/Hl67ogWiPW3u/
When Will Civilian Torture Stop in Ukraine?
https://www.bitchute.com/video/OqW4VtM66Vhf/
Ukrainian Creeps Laugh While Again Torturing Civilians
https://www.bitchute.com/video/l7m08iI0Hv5w/
And The Weirdness Continues In Ukraine
https://www.bitchute.com/video/LhMmMS7bCJv9/
Ukrainians Continue Their Bizarre Tortures of Civilians
https://www.bitchute.com/video/MtOig6UsjC72/
Old Man Punished For Being Hungry - Stole A Coffee and Sausage in Ukraine
https://www.bitchute.com/video/wlCFEDxkZz3T/
Civilian Torture In Odessa
https://www.bitchute.com/video/fdTWkQUv2OnO/
More Barbaric Medieval Civilian Abuse In Ukraine
https://www.bitchute.com/video/SIf9NgzIi4fG/
More Normal Scenes In Medieval Kiev
https://www.bitchute.com/video/mTzRkEWl2ykv/
More Ukraine Civilian Barbarity
https://www.bitchute.com/video/xCt3MPtAPPjT/
Ukrainians Teaching New Generation How To Abuse Civilians
https://www.bitchute.com/video/8AyLRBr4iHZo/
Vs Russia:
The Conflict Captured perfectly in this before and after image of Azov base in Mariupol.
Stanley Tany, soon Odessa.
People believe that Putler is fighting against the established system, being another pawn of globalism, even the worst of all.