Hat der Aktienmarkt das versuchte Attentat auf Trump verhergesagt?
Es gibt ein interessantes Gerücht auf X, dass die Aktie der Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT), die das soziale Netzwerk Truth Social betreibt, kurz vor dem versuchten Attentat auf Trump massiv geshortet worden ist.
Hat jemand Insider Informationen gehabt?
Das Attentat ereignete sich an einem Samstag, also zu einer Zeit, wo die Aktie nicht getraded wurde.
Aber Fakt ist, dass die Aktie am folgenden Montag, am 16. Juli, von 30 auf etwa 45 Dollar nach oben geschossen ist, nachdem Trump den Anschlag überlebt hat.
Im umgekehrten Fall wäre die Aktie wohl abgestürzt und jetzt gibt es das Gerücht, dass gerade einen Tag davor eine größere Short-Position der SEC gemeldet worden ist und vielleicht auch diese Shorts zum rasanten Anstieg der Aktie am Montag beigetragen haben.
Die Spekulation ist, dass es vielleicht einen großen Player am Markt gegeben hat, der über das bevorstehende Attentat Bescheid wusste und dies genutzt hat, um gegen die Aktie zu wetten und mit dem Attentat auch noch Geld zu machen. Bizarr.
Allerdings lässt sich diese Behauptung nicht beweisen, aus mehreren Gründen.
Erstens kann eine große Short-Position auch ein Zufall gewesen sein, dass einfach große Player zum Beispiel auf Grund des Wahlkampfs oder von Attentat-Gerüchten (zb aus dem Iran), die Aktie geshortet haben, ohne von dem konkreten Attentat etwas gewusst zu haben. Kausalität vs Korrelation.
Zweitens ist nicht ganz klar, ob es sich tatsächlich um Shorts oder Put-Optionen gehandelt hat (was aber nicht ganz so wichtig ist) und drittens wird in einem Artikel auf Daily Dot darauf verwiesen, dass die Meldung einen Tag vor dem Anschlag sich auf einen Zeitraum vor dem 30. Juni bezogen hat, der Bericht aber erst am 12. Juli zur SEC geschickt wurde, das Attentat war am 13. Juli d.h. die gemeldeten Shorts wurden bereits einige Zeit vor dem Attentat gesetzt.
Andererseits kann der Aktienmarkt tatsächlich manchmal Ereignisse vorhesagen. So gibt es auch Spekulationen, dass es vor 9/11 große Short-Positionen gegen Fluglinien gegeben haben soll.
Was sagt ihr zu den Gerüchten um die Trump-Aktie, hat vielleicht doch jemand vor dem Attentat Insider Informationen gehabt?
https://x.com/DiedSuddenly_/status/1813478521676738756
https://x.com/DiedSuddenly_/status/1813766972720484764
https://finbold.com/trump-stock-shorted-heavily-day-before-assassination-attempt/
https://www.dailydot.com/debug/trump-media-assassination-attempt-short-sellers/
Did the stock market predict the attempted assassination of Trump?
There is an interesting rumor on X that the stock of Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT), which operates the social network Truth Social, was massively shorted shortly before the attempted assassination of Trump.
Did anyone have inside information?
The assassination attempt took place on a Saturday, i.e. at a time when the stock was not traded.
But the fact is that on the following Monday, July 16, the stock shot up from 30 to around 45 dollars after Trump survived the attack.
If the opposite had happened, the stock would probably have crashed and now there is a rumor that just the day before a major short position was reported to the SEC and perhaps these shorts also contributed to the rapid rise in the stock on Monday.
The speculation is that perhaps there was a big player in the market who knew about the impending assassination and used this to bet against the stock and make money on the assassination. Bizarre.
However, this allegation cannot be proven, for several reasons.
Firstly, a large short position could also have been a coincidence, with major players simply shorting the stock due to the election campaign or assassination rumors (e.g. from Iran), for example, without knowing anything about the specific assassination. Causality vs correlation.
Secondly, it is not entirely clear whether it was actually shorts or put options (which is not all that important) and thirdly, an article on Daily Dot points out that the report one day before the attack referred to a period before June 30, but the report was only sent to the SEC on July 12, the attack was on July 13, i.e. the reported shorts were already set some time before the attack.
On the other hand, the stock market can indeed sometimes predict events. There is also speculation that there were large short positions against airlines before 9/11.
What do you think of the rumors about the Trump stock, did someone have insider information before the attack?
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The data coming out tends to lean towards someone knowing something. There would have to be some investigation to know
wow.. who knows, but that is a crazy coincidence! :P
It was really a narrow escape for trump
This event gives rise to many conspiracy theories!
Practically anything can be rationalised retrospectively.
I can speculate that Trump was shot in the ear by a top shooter paid by him and some crazy poor guy with a deliberately damaged rifle on the roof was shot.
It was the stock price manipulation you mentioned, and it was to get Trump votes for his presidential campaign.
Does my hypothesis seem theoretically possible to you? Of course I made the whole thing up. But it could be true, after all.
Haha, yeah it's easy to come up with conspiracy theories but hard to prove them.
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I think it was just a coincidence, but you never know.
It's indeed interesting how market actions can coincide with major events like this. Hard to prove, but fascinating to consider. And I'm thinking they had no idea
If the rumors are true, does it mean that trump assasinated himself? That would be crazy!
If truly it is true, that means things and people actually want trump to be dead
Hmm
I don’t think it’s possible. Maybe they just happened at the same time like a coincidence
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.Is it possible for the market and what happened to Trump have any form of relation or correlation?