Central Banks Hawkish Or Dovish?

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For most of the 21st century majority of central banks have been leaning dovish. Dovish is when central banks are being accommodating to banks and growth of the economy to easing lending rates and providing liquidity to banks.

Yet at the beginning of 2022 signs of inflation soaring uncontrollably began and now half way through the year there have been more hawkish action from central banks. The opposite to dovish is hawkish where central banks are raising lending rates and withdrawing liquidity from banks.

Chart above courtesy of https://www.itcmarkets.com shows just where the most important central bank is leaning with opinion tracked from each FED member. Majority of the FED is still mostly dovish, red bars, however not as dovish as beginning of the year.

Chairman is slightly dovish while majority of members are dovish there are some leaning toward hawkish. This is a good sign to predicting the future of FED's decision towards rate movement and control of liquidity in banks.

Another large central bank and its members is the European Central Banks (ECB). There is a evenly split in hawkish and dovish with its members. What is very noticeable is that with the ECB both the President Lagarde and Vice President is leaning hawkish.

Conclusions

FED interest rate has been climbing in 2022 and quick to a high of 1.75%.

While ECB has their rate at 0.5% but also climbing. The current trend of ECB leaning more hawkish would mean they anticipate to want to raise rates higher while FED has already raised rates to the point they feel more dovish.

However all this is fluid as it can change at a weeks time so it is always good to watch and see how the central banks are feeling with the economy. They have a major effect on how the stocks, assets prices, and the overall economy.

None of what I write is financial advice. It is for entertainment purposes only. Thanks for reading!



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4 comments
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I kind of expect them to act more hawkish but it looks like they are turning dovish. Then again, I guess they can understand the news about how bad the short-term inflation is.

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Also a good supporting reason why stock markets are rising with fed overall leaning more dovish. !LUV !WINE

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