I Was Probably Wrong
When I asked myself on Sunday if the correction was over and leaned toward yes. I wasn't wrong in reporting what happened until then, but I assumed too much for this week and from ETF asset managers' intentions.
What I didn't read well enough then was that ETFs never reversed the color of the candle either on Thursday or Friday, they only pushed back to make it look less scary for their investors and it was easy liquidity to grab. They didn't change the color of the candle yesterday either when it was very easy to do so. That means they aren't against a continued correction. Why would they be? They pay less per bitcoin. As long as the volatility is not too high at the end of the day to scare away their investors or mess up their marketing efforts, they are ok with it.
We still haven't seen ETF action at the time of writing this post today, so maybe we will see something like Thursday or Friday later today. There is a slight chance the price will bounce off SMA 25 this week, but I wouldn't hold my breath for that. I think the direction is confirmed down for a longer period (the halving pullback).
We might see a H&S formation like the one in the image below, that dips the price of Bitcoin to 51k. Or something else. To be honest, I think Bitcoin might not reach 51k. There will be too much buy pressure in expectation for the second, bigger phase of the bitcoin bull run. Exactly where it will stop we will see.
If you knew what you were doing you probably sold some crypto at 70k+ and are waiting in stables to buy when the correction ends.
If you aren't great at this type of short-medium type of speculation, the best thing is to wait for the bigger wave that brings everything to the stratosphere.
The third best thing is to do smaller speculations during this period. It's the third because they aren't worth the effort and are riskier. You may end up with a lower amount than you started with if you don't have the conviction in a trend and it doesn't work your way, and it can be stressful to watch the market movements and trade.
I started doing the first thing but lacked the conviction in the downtrend given the ETF involvement and ended up doing the third. I made some profit, but now I'd rather hold (and buy lower).
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this is the bigger dip before halving, it's strange that we don't prepare for it 😅
I did, lol. But I lacked conviction that it would keep going. I thought ETF buy pressure would eventually reverse course sooner than we expected by comparison with previous halvings and I didn't want to be caught off guard.
I didn't have much BTC anyways, so there was little incentive for me to sell at 70k. But I should have expected this and converted some Hive to HBD. Oh well. I'm in it for the long haul anyways. I'll wait when BTC is 100k+
I did that too. But I also bought HIVE back when I bought back Bitcoin. Oh well, a little profit is better than no profit and certainly better than a loss.
So is there usually a dip before halving or how?
So far there have been either a pre-halving pullback or a post-halving one or both. I thought this time ETFs would make things kind of different, but it doesn't look so.
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We don't know where things will go but there has been more interest in options for crypto related stocks and probably the ETFs as well. So I think a lot of money is on the line so I am not surprised if they are trying to make people feel the pain.
Yeah, this is pretty high volatility and those who ride this for the first time may do stupid things. As far as I remember without checking, previous halving pullbacks (or side movements) were rather boring but extended for a longer period, not within a week or two. It's true, we had a higher-than-usual pre-halving pump too.
Sone big red candle there, let's see how many keep cashout
Yes, it was. At some point, most investors who understand what's going on will probably re-enter their positions if they are on cash now.
To some extent I will say we have not yet seen the massive role ETF should play towards the development of bitcoin and the bull run
They aren't interested in the development of bitcoin. But they have amassed more than 2% of total bitcoin in a short while, which is not a small thing.
I can't even benefits from all these trends in crypto because I don't have much of Bitcoin. I can see many laughing as they await halving
Well, Bitcoin influences pretty much everything else, so whatever you have, the price fluctuations of Bitcoin reflect to some extent to your holdings.
With the look of chart, truly we might be in for a massive dip
Whatever it'll come, I'm ready, lol.