Another post about SL Lands - ROI
Boy there is still a lot we don't know. But there is a lot we do know. The combination of these two things seems to lead to rampant speculation, some of it hype-based and some of it negative-nancy type shade being thrown.
This morning I had people saying that it won't make any sense to play land, that only 10% of people will play.
Maybe, but that's just more for me I guess.
One thing we know is that grain price, over time, will have to fall. It will have to, it only makes sense. I am targeting 0.1 DEC per grain, although I have no idea if this will take a month or a year. There is a lot of plot clearing to do after all, during which time (weeks) players will need to feed their monsters.
Unless of course they buy Time Crystals, let's not talk about how much DEC will get burned here.
But its clear to me that if 'most' people are not working their plots, then the price of grain will take longer to fall, leaving ridiculous APRs on the table until these players - who already have most of the assets - fomo into the game late.
So I put together a nice little napkin example, for those people thinking that common plots have no use and won't be worth it to work. IMO - they will be, just check this out:
Staked DEC - 50k
5 rare CL maxed rewards - 20k
Common Plot - 30k
Total invested - 100k DEC
6050 PP producing grain (on favored terrain)
121 grain per hour
taxes - 12.1 grain per hour
usage - 60.5 grain per hour
net grain per hour - 48.4
grain per day - 1161.6
grain price 0.1 DEC - 116.1 DEC/day
365 days - 42398.4 DEC/year = 42.39% APR
0.1 DEC per grain still yields a very nice APR.
If grain is 0.5 DEC each, thats 210% apr. Very nice!
Several things could happen, one, asset prices could go up to mitigate this high APR. This is likely, as people fomo and this is the lever that they can control from the market side.
Eventually grain could fall even further. Maybe - remember we still need a ton of grain to fill up the LP when it is released shortly after 1.5, previous to the 1.6 release. I bet tens of millions of grain get stored away there.
And as this is going on, and players are figuring it all out - the team is releasing 1.6 and beyond, @yabapmatt is publishing the 2.0 whitepaper, and everyone is happy.
Good luck to all.
Don't say I didn't warn you.