Hive Grove Street: Max Out ROI!

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I got to say after receiving a tree in my transaction history a few days ago from @shaliniu,My curiosity took a peak and I just had to check out what all the fuss was about.

Once I got there and logged in and faced the seedling that had been placed before me, the button of water me was plain and obvious. So like any curious Joe would have done, I clicked it and just like that liquid hive was in my wallet immediately. So I thought, okay... What else you got for me?

Well long story short, I've been messing around with the numbers in Hive Grove because I have an 85 HIVE power-down coming in a few days and, naturally, I'm already thinking about what to do with it.

I've been playing around with the Grove for a little while now, but I hadn't really sat down and looked at the whole thing from an ROI perspective. There are a bunch of trees, land expansions, consumables, boosters, automation, friend watering, different growth stages, etc., and it's pretty easy to look at all the different options and start thinking that you need to optimize everything at once.

Trees

From the list of trees and their stats, Pine seems like the obvious choice for what I actually want to build. Forget about the others.

Pine costs 15 HIVE, has a 0.09 HIVE base reward, a 10% bonus chance and a ×2 bonus multiplier. The other regular trees are cheaper, but they also have lower base rewards and, depending on the tree, different growth rates and bonus characteristics.

So if I'm looking at this strictly from the perspective of how much HIVE I get from each watering, Pine is still the highest producer.

But if I'm looking at ROI, things get a little different.

Oak costs 5 HIVE and has an expected reward of 0.0416 HIVE per watering. Maple costs 8 HIVE and has an expected reward of 0.063 HIVE. Cherry costs 10 HIVE and has an expected reward of 0.0742 HIVE, while Willow costs 12 HIVE and has an expected reward of 0.0864 HIVE. Pine comes out to 0.099 HIVE per watering.

When I compare those numbers to what each tree actually costs, Oak gives the best return on the HIVE spent, followed by Maple, Cherry, Willow and then Pine.

So Pine gives me the most HIVE per watering, but Oak gives me the best ROI.

Thanks to @siddhartazz for pointing this next part out.

There's just one problem I didn't notice when I first started looking at this. You can only have three trees of the same type.

So no, I can't just fill all ten plots with Pines. At most, I can have three of them, which means the other plots have to be filled with other types of trees.

If I'm looking at the ROI numbers, that makes Oak the next obvious choice, followed by Maple and then Cherry.

So for a ten-tree Grove, using the current numbers, that would give me three Pines, three Oaks, three Maples and one Cherry pie.

Land

You get four plots for free, but you can expand all the way to ten. The additional plots aren't free, obviously, and the cost keeps increasing as you buy them. The six additional plots cost 4, 6, 8, 12, 16 and 20 HIVE respectively, for 66 HIVE total in additional land.

Booster Shots

If I have one Pine and I spend HIVE on boosters for that Pine, I'm increasing the return from the waterings that tree is already going to receive. If I instead use that HIVE toward expanding the Grove and getting another Pine, I've increased the number of trees producing HIVE.

That doesn't mean boosters are useless. It just means there's a difference between increasing the efficiency of existing production and increasing the amount of production you have in the first place.

Lucky Sperm

Lucky Pollen increases the chance of getting a bonus on the next watering, while Golden Nectar increases the bonus multiplier. Fertilizer and worms reduce the watering cooldown, and the drone gives you autonomous waterings so you can keep a tree going even when you're offline. I'd still rather have ten trees producing before I start worrying about squeezing more out of each individual watering.

A Pine starts with a 0.09 HIVE base reward. Ancient gives it a ×3 multiplier, so the normal Ancient reward is 0.27 HIVE. The growth stages are Seedling, Young, Mature, Elder and Ancient, with Ancient reached at 270 claims and a ×3 reward multiplier.

The 10% bonus chance means that 10% of the time you get the ×2 bonus, which would be 0.54 HIVE at the Ancient stage. So the expected average from one Ancient Pine is:

0.90 × 0.27 = 0.243 HIVE

0.10 × 0.54 = 0.054 HIVE

That gives an expected average of about 0.297 HIVE per watering.

Now put three of them together. That's approximately 0.891 HIVE per watering cycle from the three Pines, but since I can't have ten Pines, the other trees do matter. At the Ancient stage, using the same calculation:

Oak:

0.96 × 0.12 = 0.1152 HIVE

0.04 × 0.24 = 0.0096 HIVE

Expected average = 0.1248 HIVE

Maple:

0.95 × 0.18 = 0.171 HIVE

0.05 × 0.36 = 0.018 HIVE

Expected average = 0.189 HIVE

Cherry:

0.94 × 0.21 = 0.1974 HIVE

0.06 × 0.42 = 0.0252 HIVE

Expected average = 0.2226 HIVE

So if I fill the ten plots with three Pines, three Oaks, three Maples and one Cherry, the expected average from a complete watering cycle at the Ancient stage would be:

3 × 0.297 = 0.891 HIVE

3 × 0.1248 = 0.3744 HIVE

3 × 0.189 = 0.567 HIVE

1 × 0.2226 = 0.2226 HIVE

That's approximately 2.055 HIVE per complete watering cycle, and that's without using Lucky Pollen, Golden Nectar, Fertilizer, Worms or anything else. Not bad at all

Real Friends Get You Wet

The normal cooldown is 24 hours, and the game allows friends to help reduce that cooldown. If I'm consistently getting the maximum four hours of reduction, that brings the cooldown down to 20 hours. Which changes the number of watering cycles you can get over time. Instead of roughly one cycle per day, you're looking at about 1.2 cycles per day.

So a full ten-tree Grove using three Pines, three Oaks, three Maples and one Cherry would be around 2.47 HIVE per day on average at the Ancient stage, assuming those four friend assists are actually consistent.

Growing Up Takes Time

Obviously, none of this means I'm going to wake up tomorrow and start making 2.5 HIVE a day. The trees have to go through their growth stages first, and that takes time and a lot of claims. An Ancient tree requires 270 claims to reach its final stage.

That's also why I'm thinking about the order I'm putting the HIVE into the Grove. If I'm going to max the Grove out eventually anyway, I'd rather build the production capacity first. Once I have the trees and land producing, then I can start putting more HIVE into the things that increase the efficiency of that production.

Once the Grove is producing several HIVE a day, the HIVE coming out of it can start paying for more land, more trees and consumables. At that point, I don't necessarily have to keep feeding the Grove with HIVE from somewhere else. The Grove can start funding its own expansion.

I'm not looking at it as "Which item gives me the biggest number right now?" But more as "Where does each HIVE I put into this give me more productive capacity?"

For me, that currently points toward land first, Pines second, consistent watering after that, and then the boosters and automation once there's enough production for them to actually matter.

I'm going to max the Grove out eventually anyway, so I might as well build it around the numbers rather than just buying whatever happens to look useful at the time.

Hope that helps out.

Thank you again for the free tree. It got me into it and that's what counts. But...

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