Fridays Market Musings

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Losing Your Mind

In this bear market it is difficult for many people to remain objective. Everyone sees the dollar value of the portfolio collapsing, and the first time this happens we all become stars for shouting "Buy the dip!", but that will eventually stop.

And then how do you proceed. The market looked a bit better this week for leading assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, but with many other coins lagging, it was already noticeable that this would only be a short recovery. And it showed again on Tuesday. Bitcoin has been flung back towards the $20K. To plunge back below $20K on Friday. Immediately, the negative sentiment increases again in many discords. People seem to be losing their minds. So far the $19/$20K seems to be the support for Bitcoin. But will it hold? And if it doesn't, how do we deal with that. Because what we always see is that when Bitcoin thunders down, other coins in Bitcoin's trail also thunder down.

And since everything was already low, it will get even lower. Not something we like to see, of course, provided you have enough stablecoins on hand to buy the dip again. Then you might be happy with these prices.

FUD is kicking in

Left and right around me in discord I see people losing trust. The bear really brings out the worst in people. The FUD flares up everywhere, and while FUD is of course never good, and it can actually cause a lot of damage to projects no matter how good the project is. What I'm also starting to notice more and more is the people who don't care anymore, they've lost a lot ... they shout that very loudly and then they give up completely. They are literally throwing away their crypto and turning their backs on crypto.

It's not that I like this Bear

And don't get me wrong. I also don't like these falling numbers and portfolios. Of course not! Whoever does like it raises their hand, well, better said ... who does like it let us know below in the comments. I don't see a raised hand from behind my PC at my place on this globe. But how much I don't like it is nothing compared to the cautious bit of joy I also feel somewhere when I carefully study the reactions of the people in discord.

Why? For the simple reason that these reactions lead me to suspect that the crypto bear market may be close to bottoming.

How I came to that conclusion can also be explained. Every bear market has five stages that every investor will have to go through. And not everyone does it at the same pace.

The five stages we all have to go through:

• Stage 1: Denial

• Phase 2: Anger

• Phase 3: Negotiation

• Stage 4: Depression

• Phase 5: Acceptance

I think it speaks for itself what is meant by these stages. And precisely because of the reactions of people who throw in the towel. People who are getting out of crypto, people who are completely losing trust and people who are going to spread FUD I would get the idea that we have entered the Depression stage, and maybe a whole group of the Acceptance stage already.

And the moment no one expects a recovery, then suddenly it is there.

Macroeconomic Conditions

Yes, of course I know that there are many other factors involved ... and that we might have a really bad time. Perhaps we will all see our cryptos evaporate even further. I am all too aware of the macroeconomic conditions that have become extremely difficult for an ever-growing segment of the world's population with ever-increasing inflation.

But those same macroeconomic conditions, on the other hand, are also driving extreme profits for large companies. Despite everything, that can still have a beneficial effect. Also on the crypto markets!

ETH Merging

Another important thing for this week was of course the ETH merge. And it showed in the sharp plunge ETH took after the merge was complete. Oh well, I had already calculated it a bit, it became what I had secretly thought, "Buy the rumor and sell the news". Is this bad? And is ETH now lost?

We won't know for a while, but in general this was the expectation. Although I do read for the most part opinions that this merge is very bullish for ETH in the long term. Oh well, always that "Long Term" ... What if you need it NOW? Let's hope you're not in that position because if you need to convert crypto to fiat NOW then it's not the best time to put it mildly. And will that change soon?

Back to the 5 stages of the Bear

Whether the bottom is really near, I owe you the answer. I can only go by what I see around me. The hard numbers leave me little reason to hope. However, history in any investment market shows that these five stages have ALWAYS been pillars of determining how far a bear market is. And the reactions of people really make me suspect that a bottom is near. Time will tell! A reassurance may also be that no bear market is infinite! It's coming to an end. The longest bear market in crypto has lasted 378 days, and the shortest 18 days. Let's hope we don't set the record for an even longer bear market this time around!

Not Financial Advise

How will you experience the end of the bear market? Do you have a crypto portfolio left? Or did you panic sell the bottom? This is something that no one can answer yet. We simply don't know where we are now in the Bear Market. Whether the end is near, or whether the bottom is far from being reached, I dare not say anything about it. I simply don't know it! As everyone knows, I am by no means a financial advisor. I am not a crypto expert either. I'm just a blogger asked by @raymondspeaks to write my thoughts on the crypto markets...

From now on every Friday on the brofund account:

@hetty-rowan's Market Musings

Feel free to leave a comment and never accept anything as Financial Advice. Remember, these are just my musings. There is no thorough research behind it. What my next musings will be I cannot put into a definite plan. Musings come and go. They are different every day. But I can tell you that the musings I will share here will always have to do with cryptocurrency.

Let yourself be surprised!