"This Time It's Different" - Altcoin Season Thoughts .:. Late Night Blogging
I know that many of you like these types of posts (cryptocurrency-related) as I saw comments on my posts where you stated exactly that, so I decided to share my thoughts on the "upcoming" altcoin season... You know that I don't like to make price predictions, promote certain coins, or shill my bags, so if you came here for that, you don't have to bother to read the rest... 🙂
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At the beginning, I will repeat what I said dozens of times (if not hundreds)... Nobody knows where will markets go... Nobody... But, how the heck then everyone on the planet KNOW that we will have an ALTCOIN season in 2025? 😂 Interesting, isn't it... What I like to say to those who KNOW what will happen is... "Why don't you buy tons of XYZ tokens now and you will be rich at the end of the year, if you are THAT sure?"
Anyway, back to the topic... I do have thoughts that history will repeat and I WOULD LIKE to see it happen, but what bothers me the most is... It is too easy! It reminds me of the scene from the movie The Big Short where two guys were bragging about their heft bonuses for selling mortgages to illiquid people, dogs, passed away people... It was too easy to earn that money...
GIF from Tenor.com
Let me tell you something... I remember the late 2017 and the bull run that we had at that time... I was only 6-9 months in crypto, but I was a GENIUS! Whatever I would buy, I would "win"! It's easy to be a genius in the market where EVERYTHING goes up... You can't be wrong... lol... It was easy, but ONLY for those who were convinced that crypto would SURVIVE! We had that HUGE risk in those years as mainstream media was shi**ing over crypto all the time...
Then we had 2021... Another huge year for crypto... It wasn't that easy as the number of tokens grew and MANY of those from the first cycle DIED (don't forget about that)! So, not all tokens were winners at the end of the 2021 cycle, and not many BEAT Bitcoin... We had some misses, but we had a lot of experimenting... DeFi was slowly taking over and I would say that it got its USE CASE in crypto and blockchain... NFTs showed the potential, but most of those attempts were just experimenting... Also, the media pressure was still on, and it wasn't easy from that standpoint...
Let's go back to the present... Yes, we ARE in the crypto bull run... We have to zoom out of the picture... In 2016-2017, BTC went up around 1800%, in 2020-2021 it went up 600%, and from the beginning of 2024 until now, it is already 400% up... The price of BTC is way higher now than it was 8 years ago and to move the price up, you need A LOT more money in the markets... So, those 400% isn't a small number... The mainstream media image of crypto (mostly Bitcoin) indeed changed a lot, and we have more institutional buyers in the market buying BTC... THEY can move the price despite its so high...
How about altcoins? How much did altcoins evolve? On one side, if you were following the news in the last week or so, it didn't evolve too much, but it degraded... lol... Having in-the-spotlight coins like TRUMP, MELANIA, or FARTCOIN doesn't work too well for the altcoins image... 🤣 But, let's be honest, yes, certain altcoins evolved a lot from what we had in the past... Some have strong use cases for specific things, which are being adopted on a larger scale... It's not anymore in an experimental phase but in the WORK phase...
How many tokens are out there today? There is no exact number as new tokens have been created every second!!! I will show you just this...
Screenshot Google.com
Let me remind you that in the last cycle, we had maybe 20-25K tokens in TOTAL! What you see on that screenshot are ONLY the tokens created through the pump.fun website! That's a LOT of tokens... We thought that 20K was a lot as we had our focus spread on dozens of tokens... How about now? 😃 Speaking of focus, it looks like some can keep the focus, which this TRUMP meme token showed... They came to crypto, bought the token, and that's it... Only Solana moved a bit because the meme token was there and people were exchanging SOL, but even that wasn't enough to keep the SOL price up... And the rest of the markets? Crickets...
Let me short down the story...
- We have a lot more (alt)tokens this cycle and money is much more "diluted" among different tokens
- Institutional buyers "can move" the markets, but they don't buy meme coins and ALL EYES are on Bitcoin (maybe just for now, we will see)
- A lot of tokens from the previous cycles have their unlocks, or their tokens being minted from built-in inflation...
- Money (fiat) printing didn't start and that was the biggest catalyst in the last cycle
- etc.
Is there enough money to move the altcoin markets up? Will we have an altcoin season this year?
I would say YES but with one huge BUT... There is no way that ALL tokens will go up, and there is no way that more than 5% of altcoins will go up (look at that screenshot above)... I still believe that the tokens that have VALUE and USE CASE (am I a sucker? 😃) will have their spotlight during the year... How long will the "altcoin season" last and how high they will go? I have no idea, but I doubt that altcoins will beat Bitcoin by a large margin this time...
Will HIVE be in the category of those VALUABLE cryptos with a USE CASE, growing user base, and DEVELOPMENT for the future? That's probably the biggest question of all... I suppose we will find out that soon...
I would like to hear your opinion on this topic... What do you think? Will Bitcoin float all the boats or only his boat? 😃 How much gains do you expect from your "altcoin bags"?
Thank you for your time,
--ph--
PS. None of this is financial advice of any kind...
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I think you hit the nail on the head there. The dilution is massive in alts compared to previous cycles and focusing on a few core things seems to be the best strategy. We do seem to be missing the huge liquidity dump by the Fed and like you said, this is usually the biggest catalyst for NgU tech.
Unless the liquidity comes, there might not be such a huge mania in alts, but watching the TRUMP and MELANIA fomo, the appetite is definitely there.
One of my mistakes from previous cycles was exactly that... losing the focus when many coins were popping out like popcorn... 😃
Those two were exceptions, as the FOMO was focused only on them... There was almost 0 value for other tokens from that "event"... But, it was a sign that there IS MONEY ready to be invested in altcoins... We will see what happens...
I think you have to research to unlock potential value as you rightly stated not everything will go up like last time. Must have crypto are tokens businesses require to transact on block chains and it will still possibly happen before the end of this cycle, but most definitely next cycle. My portfolio is a mixture of business service related tokens and do expect them to out perform most other cryptos this cycle.
Hmmm... I do have "business service-related tokens" in my portfolio too, and maybe, maybe it's too early to take some profits on them this cycle... But, we will see how high they will go...
I guess we have a similar HODL portfolio... 🙂
I think this may be the cycle where you have to make concentrated bets on a handful of projects with a predefined criteria. There are so many options now, many of them seem good on the surface. Having discernment may also help in increasing the probability of picking a project that could achieve outsized returns this cycle.
I remember my "first cycle", where I was doing "research" (deliberately putting that in quotes as it wasn't real research at all 😃) by checking out coins, developers... But in those times, everything looked promising, but on the "surface", like you said... But, most of them were just promising stuff to be built, and that was enough to SELL their tokens... This time, I want to see some results BEFORE investing in something...
Meme coins are different as they don't have underlying value (at least not from my pov) and because of that, I don't invest in them...
Exactly, I think that's one of the characteristics of this cycle, especially for us that we're around in previous cycles. We have to see tangible results to be moved to invest in most of these projects. Words no longer sway us like before lol.
I also don't invest in memecoins, just don't find it as a worthwhile endeavour :)
I started stacking irl assets since 2017. Hive gave me an opportunity to fast track that. LP is the one I'm more interested in now. I always play games to relax and we have games here that pays you and not the other way around. I like to read and listen and you have that also in Hive. I'm fascinated with peoples blog only if I'm learning from it. I'm betting that Hive will be here in the next 10-20-30 years etc.
People can't understand that HIVE does well what it does... The only problem is that people have high-speculative minds about the price, get-rich mentality, and try to win the lottery without buying the ticket...
LP - liquidity providing or did you mean something else?
Liquidity providing yes.
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I still think it will be pretty much the same as previous cycles. The altcoins will go up the last and then the crash will follow. Of course, there is an additional factor coming from the US, how serious are they going to view BTC as a store of reserve, which might or might not change things.
!LUV
Well, I do agree that we will probably have to push up, the point of my post was that not ALL tokens will go up... For example, in 2017, if you would buy the shittiest token on the market, it went up too... No way could happen today with MILLIONS of different tokens out there...
You summarized the post at the beginning and I think that was an unofficial TLDR
You summarized it by saying no one knows when, or how the market will go in terms of development or price. BTC is and will always be the alpha, so going up is always and almost guaranteed for it.
yeah... BTC is not questionable at all... the rest is...
I think this cycle will be more selective with crypto tokens. What you mentioned about all those tokens makes me think that it will definitely happen. Even last cycle, there were those that didn't go up much at all.
Exactly! We tend to forget our losses, but, indeed, not all went up... As we have many more tokens at the moment, the percentage of those who will, is shrinking...
Maybe Hive will be a winner. But I know already that some of the alts I hold will be losers (or not as profitable as I thought they'd be). The most recent example is RUNE. It may recover some of its value (or not), but certainly we can't think in terms of an alt season for this one, when discussions are if it will make it or not.
I heard about RUNE before, and I heard what happened with it... Luckily, I was completely out of it as I didn't like how complicated was its setup... Also, it did have some similarities with LUNA, which was a red light for me...
I hope you didn't have a big bag of it...
Well... a couple of hundred dollars, across RUNE, CACAO, and a LP on Thorchain. But would have been more if instead of going down, it would have gone up, lol.
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what bothers me more id that hive isn't really performing well to be a bull run, it's slowly going down ...it's hard to imagine a new 2021
It's always hard to imagine, the market fucks with your emotions, that's the point or everyone would be rich just like @ph1102 talks about and I agree with you on diminishing returns due to multiple tokens. Imo HIVE is just making a correction like the previous cycle, it could last 3 months if our high is in, we won't know until a lower high is confirmed.
Anything is possible, but it's less probable than 4-8 years ago... I mean, to have 10-20X on HIVE or on any well-established token...
If you ask me, I'm OK with 2-3x... 😃
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Don't forget that HIVE was 17 cents 3 months ago... and now it's 2.5 times more... Many tokens were going down all that time... ;)
It is true that things have been changed this time but we have seen that the price of bitcoin has increased and if we wait some more time we will definitely see the price of altcoins increase as well. Especially with the way artificial intelligence and coins like that and we've seen Trump launch his coin, people who bought it at $20, $22 and sold it at $50 made a nice profit. I have been but the altcoin season is yet to come.
You will not make a change in your life by buying a TRUMP coin for $20 and selling it for $50... You can maybe make a profit, but with that mentality, you will lose it at the next meme token... 😉
NFA.
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