
A fresh twist in the Middle East is shaking things up. OPEC+ just announced they'll pump more oil starting next month, but traders are barely blinking because of ongoing chaos in the Strait of Hormuz. The group, which includes big players like Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the UAE, met on March 1, 2026, and decided to add 206,000 barrels of crude per day from April. That's a small bump, about 0.2% of what the world uses daily. Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman are also in on it. They paused increases for three months before this, hoping to steady prices. But now, with war raging, it feels like a drop in the ocean.
The real story is the conflict. On February 28, US and Israeli forces struck targets in Iran sparking retaliation. Iran fired missiles and threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, that narrow waterway between Iran and Oman. About 15 million barrels of oil pass through there every day, roughly 20% of global supply. Already, three tankers have been hit by explosives, slowing traffic to a crawl.
Experts say it all depends on how long this disruption lasts. If Iran blocks the strait for weeks, exports from Saudi Arabia and others could grind to a halt, tightening supply way more than any small increase helps. Oil prices jumped 13% last week, with Brent crude hitting $82 a barrel.
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