Will the End of This Cycle Be Sooner Than 4 Years Ago? Maybe, But Unlikely!
There is a saying (more of a disclaimer) in the financial world: past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
In a way, charts say more about the past performance of an asset than about its future. But that doesn't stop us from remarking patterns. Whether they lead somewhere or not, or if some send conflicting signals, that's a different deal.
However, I couldn't help but notice this similitude between the bitcoin chart during this and the previous cycle, a few months apart, in relative terms...
If this pattern would repeat this cycle, the bull market would, more or less end in August. I think that would be a first, that's why I have my doubts it would happen quite like that.
Compared to last cycle, we also had a more aggressive BTC, and highly under-performing alts. There are quite a few differences between the two evolutions:
- ATH before halving this cycle
- second top will be considerably higher, where last cycle, they were almost at the same level
- this year it comes much sooner, which makes me wonder if it won't have the strength to keep it up for a longer period, especially since September is right around the corner, when it can cool off
Yeah... despite the similitude, I doubt this cycle will end in August, unless it goes vertical from now to then. Otherwise, I'm still thinking after a serious retrace in September, we will have one final and likely epic push higher. Hopefully, alts will be... there.
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If this cycle would come sooner because of the halving that happened earlier, then BTC has hit it's peak and there isn't an alt season. This is very much unlikely, the event with the halving coming earlier was because of the BTC ETF.
Yes, as I said, there are both similitudes and differences with last cycle. It's likely bitcoin's ATH was because of the ETFs, that's true.
My target for the end of this cycle is 100,000 to 100,000,000. So we can see Bitcoin going up to this point, but here we are seeing that altcoins are not being pumped. So something is going to happen here that we are not all thinking about. So altcoins will definitely be pumped. The cycle will not end until Bitcoin's dominance reaches 50.
Ha ha! I think we can all retire if that happens, no matter how little BTC we have. Unless prices adjust... "accordingly".
That should be the normal way to go... If that doesn't happen, where would BTC dominance go next cycle? To 95%? But... there is another way BTC dominance can get down, without regular alts pumping. That is, if stablecoins (which are... alts, technically) explode, and they might, even from this year.
My target for this bike is $150,000. It was written above by mistake. The higher BTC's dominance goes, the better the altcoin season we may see, but we have to remember that whatever is to happen has to happen within this year.
A retrace after summer then a last spike for the end of the year, I think it can reach 130-140k
When I saw @toofasteddie's post I was inclined to agree with you, that it would be around 140k at the end of 2025. But after reflecting, I believe it can be that or lower than that, but with a spike higher possibly up to 150-160k, before it drops.
Might be a good idea to have some liquid hive to swap to hbd by the end of the year then
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I dont know man...the big boys have stepped in over the last year, it all feels different and most of all...slower
It would seem so. But when you compare, you see slower is not the right word. It might be for the rest of the market, but not for bitcoin, which is the one that "decides" how long the cycle lasts.
But you are right. It's like they are in our minds. Whenever we think we know something, they... switch. Lol!
I'm considering that this new possibility of the cycle ending sooner will play out but what comes after that is mostly unknown to me. I don't think when the cycle ends, bear market will start soon after. Maybe the cycle is broken altogether and after this double top, another major rally will ensue in the coming months.
I doubt we will have an extension of the bull market way past its limits. We will likely see major profit taking, as always.
I think its hard to tell, but BTC is more different this time around due to the ETFs. I just don't think the alts will be pumped as much since the money has moved there.
There are and will be ETFs for alts. Unfortunately, ETFs are killing the spirit of crypto, while integrating it into the traditional system.
!BBH
Thanks.
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